One-Seat Ride to NYC on Raritan Valley Line

I'd like to once again bring up the studies that show that frequency of service is more important for increasing ridership than one seat rides. The European rail network is also built around the idea of convenient timed transfers as is the NYC Subway. Of course for some diversity of service NJT could send some NEC trains to Hoboken or have them terminate at Newark in order for RVL trains to go to Penn, but that might then overload other trains as commuters chase the dragon

Would new trans-hudson tunnels double the ridership of the Raritan Valley Line?

Thomas wrote:Would new trans-hudson tunnels double the ridership of the Raritan Valley Line?

Who knows..... NJT underestimated the ridership increase on the M&E when Midtown Direct started. The pilot program may show some indications on how much demand there really is for direct NYC service on the RVL.

Thomas wrote:Would new trans-hudson tunnels double the ridership of the Raritan Valley Line?

Would like to see some studies... I assume some were done as justification for ARC, and maybe some were focused on single-seat RVL trips.

Some data I found: http://www.rosenet.org/uploads/254/nj_t ... imates.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; estimates that ridership from Convent/Madison/Chatham will increase around 25% by 2030 mostly due to ARC. I'd guess those towns have similar demographics to some RVL towns such as Westfield and Scotch Plains.

Do potential RVL riders drive all the way to NY, or do they drive to a NEC or PATH station?

http://media.nj.com/bergen_impact/other/1Q2013.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; shows weekday ridership along the entire RVL for "NY trips" was 8250, and 10750 Newark trips. (Judging from the boardings chart in the same document, trips may be ~ 2x passenger count.) How many people deboarding at Newark go to the PATH to then to NY? Most? So maybe there are 8000 daily RVL passengers to NY. How many potential RVL passengers drive to Rahway instead (3236 boardings)? If we could see these numbers, maybe we could make an educated guess as to how RVL ridership may increase.

The need for additional tunnels is necessary due to the lack of capacity. It is true that extra trains would bring extra riders. However, I don't think that the ridership numbers in this case are accurately quantifiable. New Trans-Hudson tunnels would be, in my opinion, one of those rare "If you build it, they will come" situations. Not only will ridership increase, but it is possible that the populations of the towns that already exist around stations along the lines that will gain one seat rides from this improvement could increase as well due to the newfound ease of getting to the region's economic center: New York.

And then, when talking about service on the Raritan Valley line, there are additional infrastructure capacity issues you need to worry about, such as the crossover at HUNTER, sharing track with an increasingly busy Lehigh Line, and the potential (long shot) restoration of West Trenton Line service.

Bottom line: this is a great gimmick, but it proves nothing. Focus on the current and future infrastructure needs to make it happen. The riders will come.

Disclaimer: Everything above is my opinion based on what I have read here and online. I have never ridden the Raritan Valley line.

It IS an incredibly subjective argument... but in my case I'm almost equidistant between Metropark and Westfield. I choose Metropark EVERY TIME because it's a one-seat express ride. However there are times I'd love to go through Westfield because it'd be nice to go to dinner there after or do other things after work in the area.... But I don't, or at least very rarely. Because i don't like changing at Newark. But if they had a one-seat ride into NYP from there, I'd definitely ride from Westfield on occasion.

ThirdRail7 wrote:

michaelk wrote: Not sure where anyone said the problem is "becasue the line is not electrified" - there's dual modes now so that's basically moot.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We went over this like a school play. This is not some imagined limitation. According to some higher ups, it is very real. In diesel mode, the Alp-45 would have a difficult time maintaining the schedule it if carried around the necessary equipment it need to replace an existing slot. They aren't comparable to the electrics, which can.

If you electrify the NJT owned portion of the Raritan Valley line, that problem is largely eliminated since you'd only have to use diesel mode for a small portion of the trip. If you wanted to get creative, you could have the trains programmed to operate wit ha DM skip Union station so you wouldn't have to worry about the slow acceleration in diesel mode.

Dual modes don't negate much because at the end of the day, outside of electrified territory...it's just another diesel. The demise of the Alp-44s was accelerated by its lack of ability to adequately power a large train of MLVs. While the Alp-45 has a much bigger HEP output than the ALP-44s, it doesn't have the horsepower rating of one, particularly in diesel mode. Imagine the DM with 10 MLVs coming down from Lebanon on a fall morning.

Ouch.

So you think NJT bought a pile of dual modes at the time the new tunnels where still coming with zero plans to use them for one seat rides on the RVL?

Want to talk about lynch mobs if every other ride in the state got one seat to NYP but Raritan didn't?

your logic seems to make perfect sense though- so i suppose they planned on significant schedule changes or other operational tweaking to get it to work.

I have no firm numbers but anecdotally people at the western end of the line just drive in on 78.

Couldn't say how many are offended by the lack of 1 seat rides anymore than anyone else could but i think it's not the change of trains so much as the time. There's probably a study someplace that says for every minute you add to a ride there's a fraction of riders you lose. The change at newark adds several minutes generally and at times more than that. Others are probably annoyed at always standing from Newark to NY. So it's not necessarily the change itself but the symptoms of the change.

There's also a subtle thing that happens on the line that many people buy along the line specifically becasue they work in the financial district so need to take the path anyhow. If you work in midtown I suspect you are somewhat more likely to move where there is direct service. But for wall street folks Westfield is the same difference as any Hoboken division train as you need to change to the PATH anyhow.

The problem is that when NJT seems to give people one seat rides, the service goes down the toilet. More stops are added to trains and they become slower and slower along the route. I guess some people don't care about those things, but I'd rather get home faster even if I have to make a transfer somewhere.

The M&E im told used to be an affordable place to live before Midtown Direct. Commuters consisted mainly of Wall Street types. South Orange was going down the toilet fast and that the Morris County towns were pretty right wing. Midtown Direct changed all that. Prices shot up and all the line. Midtown commuters began choosing the M&E. The private bus service went belly up. South Orange is now very desirable and alot of Liberal NYers have moved into Morris County. I read that the ridership doubled in the first 5 years and is still growing. South Orange went from 900 boardings a day to nearly 4,000. Many things in South Orange are named Midtown Direct including the real estate offices. Im sure the same dynamic would happen if/when the Raritan line starts heading to NY.


Btw i bet the NJT is working on fixing hunter but will cost a hundred million dollars or more for all the flyovers. Just a wild guess.

michaelk wrote:

ThirdRail7 wrote:

michaelk wrote: Not sure where anyone said the problem is "becasue the line is not electrified" - there's dual modes now so that's basically moot.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We went over this like a school play. This is not some imagined limitation. According to some higher ups, it is very real. In diesel mode, the Alp-45 would have a difficult time maintaining the schedule it if carried around the necessary equipment it need to replace an existing slot. They aren't comparable to the electrics, which can.

If you electrify the NJT owned portion of the Raritan Valley line, that problem is largely eliminated since you'd only have to use diesel mode for a small portion of the trip. If you wanted to get creative, you could have the trains programmed to operate wit ha DM skip Union station so you wouldn't have to worry about the slow acceleration in diesel mode.

Dual modes don't negate much because at the end of the day, outside of electrified territory...it's just another diesel. The demise of the Alp-44s was accelerated by its lack of ability to adequately power a large train of MLVs. While the Alp-45 has a much bigger HEP output than the ALP-44s, it doesn't have the horsepower rating of one, particularly in diesel mode. Imagine the DM with 10 MLVs coming down from Lebanon on a fall morning.

Ouch.

So you think NJT bought a pile of dual modes at the time the new tunnels where still coming with zero plans to use them for one seat rides on the RVL?

Want to talk about lynch mobs if every other ride in the state got one seat to NYP but Raritan didn't?

your logic seems to make perfect sense though- so i suppose they planned on significant schedule changes or other operational tweaking to get it to work.

I think NJT bought a pile of dual modes for use in connection with the ARC project. ARC was supposed to create new slots for various lines that don't serve Penn such as the the Raritan, Main, Bergen Lines and even the future Pocono line. When ARC was canceled, you effectively eliminated the extra slots. As such, if you want to add something to Penn during rush hour, something else must come out. The intent of the DMs was not to alter the existing service profile. It was brought in to operate when the new slots opened up. If you had the new slots, you wouldn't have to worry about longer RVL since you wouldn't have to worry about connecting passengers.

Woodcrest295 wrote:The M&E im told used to be an affordable place to live before Midtown Direct. Commuters consisted mainly of Wall Street types. South Orange was going down the toilet fast and that the Morris County towns were pretty right wing. Midtown Direct changed all that. Prices shot up and all the line. Midtown commuters began choosing the M&E. The private bus service went belly up. South Orange is now very desirable and alot of Liberal NYers have moved into Morris County. I read that the ridership doubled in the first 5 years and is still growing. South Orange went from 900 boardings a day to nearly 4,000. Many things in South Orange are named Midtown Direct including the real estate offices. Im sure the same dynamic would happen if/when the Raritan line starts heading to NY.


Btw i bet the NJT is working on fixing hunter but will cost a hundred million dollars or more for all the flyovers. Just a wild guess.

I know quite a few people that live along the RVL that drive to NWK or MET since those station have more service and a one seat ride. While the above may be true, it happened during the "boom" years. It may help ridership, but I doubt you'll see that kind of boom on the RVL in the foreseeable future.

Maybe your right. I bet the same boom would happen.... 50k now take the m&e, i bet similar numbers for the raritan valley line. Remember the line has a great history as a main line. Its now serving as a glorified branch line and its not so easy to access some of those towns from NYC just like the M&e.

BigDell wrote:It IS an incredibly subjective argument... but in my case I'm almost equidistant between Metropark and Westfield. I choose Metropark EVERY TIME because it's a one-seat express ride. However there are times I'd love to go through Westfield because it'd be nice to go to dinner there after or do other things after work in the area.... But I don't, or at least very rarely. Because i don't like changing at Newark. But if they had a one-seat ride into NYP from there, I'd definitely ride from Westfield on occasion.

I think examples like these illustrate that eliminating the transfer would make the train a better option for most passengers. Personally, I commute to Bergen County from the NEC and I am able to enjoy the nice ride home (or back to work) and make the train an option because of the seamless transfer at SEC. Transfer times are within 8 minutes (sometimes 3 minutes ). However, If I miss my specific train, my commute very easily gets lengthened by 20-30 minutes depending on the connection at SEC. Even though I can wind down and read/nap on the train, sometimes I want to get home sooner rather than later.

Not to bring this off-topic, but if anyone is wondering if there is demand for a one-seat ride from the Bergen lines, it definitely exists even during off-peak hours. How much compared to RVL riders want it remains to be seen. When are the loop tracks at SEC scheduled to be built?

ThirdRail7 wrote:

michaelk wrote:

ThirdRail7 wrote:

michaelk wrote: Not sure where anyone said the problem is "becasue the line is not electrified" - there's dual modes now so that's basically moot.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We went over this like a school play. This is not some imagined limitation. According to some higher ups, it is very real. In diesel mode, the Alp-45 would have a difficult time maintaining the schedule it if carried around the necessary equipment it need to replace an existing slot. They aren't comparable to the electrics, which can.

If you electrify the NJT owned portion of the Raritan Valley line, that problem is largely eliminated since you'd only have to use diesel mode for a small portion of the trip. If you wanted to get creative, you could have the trains programmed to operate wit ha DM skip Union station so you wouldn't have to worry about the slow acceleration in diesel mode.

Dual modes don't negate much because at the end of the day, outside of electrified territory...it's just another diesel. The demise of the Alp-44s was accelerated by its lack of ability to adequately power a large train of MLVs. While the Alp-45 has a much bigger HEP output than the ALP-44s, it doesn't have the horsepower rating of one, particularly in diesel mode. Imagine the DM with 10 MLVs coming down from Lebanon on a fall morning.

Ouch.

So you think NJT bought a pile of dual modes at the time the new tunnels where still coming with zero plans to use them for one seat rides on the RVL?

Want to talk about lynch mobs if every other ride in the state got one seat to NYP but Raritan didn't?

your logic seems to make perfect sense though- so i suppose they planned on significant schedule changes or other operational tweaking to get it to work.

I think NJT bought a pile of dual modes for use in connection with the ARC project. ARC was supposed to create new slots for various lines that don't serve Penn such as the the Raritan, Main, Bergen Lines and even the future Pocono line. When ARC was canceled, you effectively eliminated the extra slots. As such, if you want to add something to Penn during rush hour, something else must come out. The intent of the DMs was not to alter the existing service profile. It was brought in to operate when the new slots opened up. If you had the new slots, you wouldn't have to worry about longer RVL since you wouldn't have to worry about connecting passengers.

Exactly- the problem is they killed ARC not that the line isn't electrified.

Even electrifying the line doesn't fix the lack of ARC. You could spend a bajillion to electrify it and then everyone would still need to get off in newark to change trains.