SecaucusJunction wrote:There are so many problems with this that its not even funny... You're right, this would require a huge investment by Amtrak for a service that may very well be a flop. They would either have to create a second terminal in Hoboken, get some sort of so far uninvented dual mode that can make it through the tunnels, or have an engine change around Dover. The other funny thing is, looking at NJT's schedule, even with the most express trains it takes over 1 1/2 hours to get from Hopatcong to Hoboken... couple that with PATH transfer times and the time to get to 33rd street and you are close to 2 hours. That gives this new service just about 1 hour and 15 minutes to get from Hopatcong to Binghamton to be competitive with buses. I think you'd need a Japanese bullet train for that run.
This is a huge problem with the Lackawanna Cutoff project in itself. If NJT cannot run trains in a time competitive fashion even as far as Scranton, I think residents there would rather drive to a closer destination to board a train to NYC or just drive there themselves. With the pace that the Lackawanna Cutoff is moving at, I'd say it is a minimum of 10-15 years away at best if it ever happens.
Note: The Cutoff EA lists the Dover-HOB time at 1:01, probably due to bidirectional signaling on summit-dover to allow faster expresses. Not a huge improvement, but something. Moreover, don't use PATH times. The EA lists the Dover-Broad Street time at about 47 minutes. Adding in the 21 minutes it takes to go from Broad Street to NYP plus a 10 minute transfer, gives you 1 h, 18 minutes. Now unless it takes 42 minutes go the 5.4 miles from Lake Hopatcong to Dover (without having to accelerate from a standstill), I think 2 hours is a little off.
Right now the Scranton-Hoboken time is listed at 3 hours, 20 minutes in the EA. This is without cab signaling (at least west of Hopatcong) and with local stops at places such as Andover and Blairstown. Minor curve relocations can be achieved in rural areas at a relatively low cost (depending on the terrain). It might be worth it to add cab signaling, depending on curve geometry and grade, which would also incrementally reduce the time. For example, the 28 miles of the Cutoff theoretically would take 21 minutes if the 79 mph max speed could be maintained over the entire segment. It would take 15 minutes, 17 seconds at the 110 mph max speed of a P42DC. Now these numbers would never be achieved in real life because of acceleration and 5 minutes, 43 seconds seems small, but incremental improvements like these over the entire line would add up. The EA times were probably calculated using commuter rail cars. If tilting cars were used, the speed over some of the curves could be reduced further adding incremental improvements in time savings.