Lynchburg VA NE Regional (ext. to Roanoke and Bristol)

I don't know how much demand would exist for this, but if a bus connection between the Lynchburg Amtrak station and Blacksburg could be provided, I would certainly use it! I'm actually thinking about going down for a visit, and dreading the thought of the 8 hour trek down I-81, and 500 miles (each way) of wear and tear on my car!

The Amtrak June monthly report was posted last week with the June ridership numbers. Held up for June with 11,594 for Washington-Lynchburg while a dropoff might have been expected if college students make up a big part of the ridership. Depending, of course, on whether the college or university ends their year in May or June. Ridership number for the last 4 months for perspective:

March 2010 - 11,365
April 2010 - 11,973
May 2010 - `10,684
June, 2010 - 11,594

Appears to have leveled off in the 11,000 per month range which is still way ahead of the projected budget ridership numbers. Too bad they just can't extent the route to Roanoke in the near future, rather than putting it off for years. Considering the WAS-Lynchburg numbers are better than the Piedmont service before NC added an additional daily train (went from 6,429 in May to 15,426 on June), maybe VA & Amtrak should discuss adding a 2nd daily service before or when they extend the route to Roanoke. Provided NS would be willing to consider the additional traffic.

Matt Johnson wrote:I don't know how much demand would exist for this, but if a bus connection between the Lynchburg Amtrak station and Blacksburg could be provided, I would certainly use it! I'm actually thinking about going down for a visit, and dreading the thought of the 8 hour trek down I-81, and 500 miles (each way) of wear and tear on my car!

I was waiting for a "car hating" post to appear and figured that this completely off-topic material could provide the author (Mr. Johnson in this case) relief to know "he is not alone" with his car hating:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/nyreg ... cense.html

Brief passage:

• ONLY three times in my life have I been so scared that I trembled — legs quivering, hands jittering, heart out of control. The first was at 12, when I watched “The Exorcist” before I should have. The second was at 41, when, on the kind of dare to which middle-aged men seem peculiarly vulnerable, I got into a canvas harness and prepared to jump some 250 feet into a gorge in Zambia.
  
  The third was a few months ago, on Staten Island, when I was asked by an examiner for the New York State Department of Motor Vehicles to pull out of a parking spot and drive toward a nearby stoplight.
  
  A humdrum task, you say? Undeserving of horror? You’ve never met the examiner. And you don’t yet understand what a crazy-making path I’d traveled to that fraught and climactic point — to the possibility that, at 45, I just might be able to drive legally again.
  
  This is a cautionary tale. Like too many harried New Yorkers without cars or much cause to use them, I let my driver’s license expire — in October 2006. Then, in an unlucky development the next May, I was pick-pocketed. The double whammy of an expired license that I could not physically produce meant I could no longer right the situation with a written exam and a vision check. I was effectively 16 again, on the hook for a five-hour class and the dreaded road test, which I came to fear I’d never reach, given the labyrinth of civil-service incompetence, bureaucratic nonsense and simple misfortune I had tumbled into. Kafka could have had a field day with me.

Obviously this Times reporter, who in regular life is their Restaurant Critic and, from being such, is well traveled (he reviews restaurants all over the world - The Times still has budgets and readership for such), holds similar views; but then New York is likely the most mass transit minded city in North America. I have known over the years many a New Yorker (remember, Chicago area location notwithstanding, I'm from there), who I can assure you are perfectly qualified to operate a motor vehicle, but simply just never "gotaroutuit":

Finally, as Col. Perkowski noted at another topic, this "car loving' member does have an upcoming trip to St Louis on which Amtrak will be used - and no need for a rental auto at destination. The Amtrak station according to Mr. Google, is .04mi from the Terminal Hotel in St Louis and the Edward Jones Dome is 1.4mi from same - all readilly doable walks and the only places I'll have occasion to go while there. But otherwise, can't think oftoo many places I go either by air or Amtrak where I can live without a rented car.

I'm perhaps a little different from the typical "car hater" - my problem is I love my car too much! But it is a love-hate relationship. Back in 2007 I had to replace the windshield on my then brand new car only three months after I bought it thanks to a rock, and now over 3 years and 40,000 miles later, I still sort of baby my car and try to avoid the dings and scratches that driving/parking in certain situations inevitably brings. (I did put 220,000 miles on my old '97 Saturn SL2 though without too many scars, but the dent resistant plastic body panels helped with that.) 1000 miles of highway driving means 1000 miles of exposure to semis throwing up rocks, tire re-treads, etc. And traveling by train is just so much more relaxing - I'd love to be able to just step off a train right in downtown Blacksburg! Maybe it's silly, but as I consider grad schools (can't seem to get a job as an aerospace engineer in this market, time to try for an MBA, not that the market's great there either), I think access via rail transportation is something I'll consider. I have experienced urban, suburban, and rural environments, and have concluded that living in a pedestrian friendly area with a walkable downtown that has some character, and having alternatives to driving are huge quality of life issues for me.

(Note to mods: I've started this as a new topic, but maybe it should be combined with a previous forum on the Lynchburg train).

FY '10 was a phenomenal for the new Lynchburg train in terms of ridership and revenue:http://www.newsleader.com/article/20101 ... rojections:

The daily service, which runs from Lynchburg to Boston via Charlottesville, Washington, D.C., and New York City, had 126,072 riders between Oct. 1, 2009, and Sept. 30, 2010, exceeding its target by 147 percent. Revenue, at $6.3 million, was 146 percent above its target.

And, both the commonwealth and Roanoke's local transit agency are studying (always with the studies!) connecting bus service from Lynchburg to Roanoke (where a connection would be made to existing bus service to Blacksburg):http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2010/n ... ar-660423/:

Both Roanoke and the state’s Department of Rail and Public Transportation are studying whether there are enough potential train passengers in that part of Virginia to justify a bus connection to Lynchburg’s train station.

If it is launched, the service would stop in Bedford to pick up passengers there, said Carl Palmer, general manager of Roanoke’s Valley Metro bus service.

Valley Metro already runs 13 round trips per day to Blacksburg on a route it calls the Smart Way bus.

Amtrak put out a press release on the success of the Lynchburg and additional train to RVR service. See http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentSe ... 1267278292. While the newspaper articles are about the studies to add connecting bus service, at least the Amtrak press release indicates that the bus may be the short term solution:
"The success of both Amtrak Virginia services is promising as the Commonwealth works to increase intercity passenger rail service to major population centers in Virginia. DRPT is working with Norfolk Southern to identify improvements necessary to extend the Richmond train to Norfolk within three years. DRPT is also working to evaluate a potential extension of the Lynchburg train to Roanoke, as well as a bus bridge to offer service between the two cities in the short term."

What is needed to extend the Lynchburg service to Roanoke? Any reports on what NS would want to run a passenger train to Roanoke? Or is the hold-up mainly the cost of restoring or building a station along with arranging for overnight storage in Roanoke?

Since the service has been this successful, Virginia DRPT should be looking at adding a second daily train, a daytime round trip train that leaves WAS in the morning and back from Lynchburg or Roanoke in the afternoon to become a Regional running north to NYP in the evening. Of course, this may not work with Amtrak's current equipment limits and scheduling.

afiggatt wrote: Since the service has been this successful, Virginia DRPT should be looking at adding a second daily train, a daytime round trip train that leaves WAS in the morning and back from Lynchburg or Roanoke in the afternoon to become a Regional running north to NYP in the evening. Of course, this may not work with Amtrak's current equipment limits and scheduling.

A 3h 45m trip would permit

Dp WAS 07:30a Ar LYH 11:15a
Dp LYH 12:15p Ar WAS 04:00p

Today there is a Thruway Bus that does Charlottesville

Dp WAS 10:10a Ar CVS 01:05p
Dp CVS 04:50p Ar WAS 07:40p

...where does it go for the 4 hours in the middle? Is the driver taking a break or is it tagging off to RIC or Staunton?
...there's time for a tag to LYH...but too long a shift for the driver?

The Regional extension has notably increased the on/off passenger count for the stations on it's route. Came across the FY10 counts for each station in the Amtrak October 2010 ADA compliance report that was posted on their website several weeks ago. Charlottesville jumps out as the 5th busiest station in VA with 91,707 and not far behind Newport News at 116,229. Figuring any additional Regional service is a ways off, if the Cardinal goes daily, the options of 3 trains a day could bump the Charlottesville numbers up quite a bit, although the poor on-time performance of the Cardinal could make it a problem for people going from CVS to points north.

Station FY09 FY10
Manassas 9,204 16,239
Culpeper 4,814 8,848
Charlottesville 52,546 91,707
Lynchburg 23,641 58,348

Burke Center which started service on Jan. 18, 2010 for the Lynchburg Regional only had only 1,156 riders. Either Virginia & Amtrak need to advertise it more or a one train a day stop is not really worth it being not that far from several DC Metro stations & the Alexandria station.

afiggatt wrote: Burke Center which started service on Jan. 18, 2010 for the Lynchburg Regional only had only 1,156 riders. Either Virginia & Amtrak need to advertise it more or a one train a day stop is not really worth it not that far from several DC Metro stations & the Alexandria station.

I was initially surprised to see Burke Center too. You'd think if you needed to get there (or anywhere between Alexandria and Manassas) you could take VRE from the one direction or the other. And it isn't a place you think of for trains, but it is *much* more convenient to a lot of people than Alexandria (hard to get to by car) and Manassas (hard to get downtown). It is not a destination from LYH, but should be a longer-term source of customers.

The key is freeway access and a giant free parking structure (http://www.vre.org/service/stations/BCV.htm)

So this is about auto access to Fairfax county's 1,000,000 people, and as such it is by far the biggest population center along the route, and all pretty well connected (despite its sprawl) to Burke Center by the Fairfax County Parkway (VA Route 7100) which runs down the spine of the county.

Some rough-cut population "basin" sizes based on the 2009 Census:
Alexandria-Arlington-Inner/South = 600,000 people
Fairfax County = 800,000
Manassas-Prince William = 300,000
Charlottesville = 200,000
Lynchburg = 300,000

I don't get it. Is this article saying that Lynchburg NER can't fund itself? Or is she saying that the Trans Dominion Express network can't happen (inlcuding other potentially money losing branches or extensions)
Funding Gap May Close Popular Amtrak Route

NBC29.com wrote: However, its success does not guarantee its future as a transportation option. Meredith Richards of the Cville Rail said, "Today [Thursday], I wanted to alert people that there are going to be issues with sustaining funding for this train."

Richards says even though it's paying for itself that doesn't mean that other routes are, and funding for this pilot project runs out in 2011. "We will need a source of operating funds. The state is going to need a dedicated fund for passenger operation," she said.

It's up to advocates like Richards to get the General Assembly on board. In 2009, the General Assembly asked the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation to identify where money could come from to set up a permanent rail operating fund. They are set to report back during the 2011 session, which is just before that initial funding is set to run out.

Something seems a little bit "off" here. She never quite says LYH is in trouble. Its more like control of the profits from LYH is in trouble (and that other routes--that under some scenarios could be funded with LYH profits--are in trouble).

This feels like a scare tactic ("LYH might be cancelled!") used by one side in a turf war. Advocates would naturally want an independent fund/mandate that would let the fund control its own destiny and use LYH profits to subsidize money-losing branches instead of the two more likely scenarios: VA pocketing the surplus, or Amtrak pocketing it.

But whether Amtrak or the state pocket LYH"s surplus, I don't see how either would kill the goose laying the golden eggs by actually killing LYH trains.

The operational costs of the Lynchburg trains are funded by Virginia. What they are saying on NBC29 quoted by Arlington is that the legislature needs to approve the funding in the 2011 legislative session for the trains to continue in 2012 and beyond.

Governor McDonnell was hoping to sell off Virginia's state run booze business (ABC) to generate funds for transportation but he isn't likely get support from the legislature because the sale will only generates a fraction of the $s of what he originally hoped. There doesn't seem to be no other proposal on the table that is likely to pass the legislature for any transportation funding in Virginia so everything is in jeopardy at this point.

tfherb wrote:The operational costs of the Lynchburg trains are funded by Virginia. What they are saying on NBC29 quoted by Arlington is that the legislature needs to approve the funding in the 2011 legislative session for the trains to continue in 2012 and beyond.

Amtrak's planners told its management that 1 extra NEC-LYH and NEC-RVR services would each lose $2m per year, so Amtrak never chose to operate either, until Virginia promised to fork over enough to cover the direct costs.

As it turns out, passengers have fully funded NEC-LYH's direct costs plus a $800,000 surplus, ergo VA is not needed to fund it and it doesn't (really) need any action on VA's part.

Amtrak should be smart enough to keep it going on its own after the 3-year agreement runs out. AFAICS, the only thing in jeopardy is who gets the power to allocate that surplus to other rail operations...Virginia or Amtrak? Will Virginia keep control via legislation and contract, or will Amtrak take control (and probably choose to keep NEC-LYH and drop the extra NEC-RVR service).

Here's my math: According page 25 of the original Amtrak-Virginia agreement, the total direct costs of the NEC-LYH service was $5,481,000 per year.

Because they expected fares to only cover 2,580,000 of that, Virginia was on the hook for an estimated 2,901,000 per year.

As it turns out, NEC-LYH took in $6,337,457.42 in revenue, meaning the service turns a profit of $800,000 per year ($6.3m in revs - $5.5m in costs). Meanwhile NEC-RVR trains have underperformed by 10% ($363k vs $400k for the first 3 months) and so look likely to fall $200,000 short of the $2.0m that fares were supposed to contribute (with VA pledging another $2.1m toward a $4.2m annual cost).

VA legislative action is needed to keep the VDRPT in the intercity train biz and needed to keep the $800k surplus from LYH yoked to the expected $2.2m loss from RVR. While I think that's a good policy, I don't think LYH riders need to be scared unecessarily into thinking they'd lose their service if the Legislature fails to act.

This Demonstration Project has demonstrated that Amtrak could operate NEC-LYH without any help from Virginia at all. That's a win. If the VA legislature failed to act, I'd be pretty confident that Amtrak would continue the service on its own, not needing any permission from VA to do it, and keeping the $800k for themselves.

NBC29.com wrote:Meredith Richards of the Cville Rail said, "Today [Thursday], I wanted to alert people that there are going to be issues with sustaining funding for this train." Richards says even though it's paying for itself that doesn't mean that other routes are, and funding for this pilot project runs out in 2011

So the pilot study is threatened, NEC-RVR is threatened, but it is just paranoia/sensationalism to say "Funding Gap May Close Popular Amtrak Route" if the route, as implied, is NEC-LYH.

*GASP* AN AMTRAK ROUTE TURNING A PROFIT!!! and for all these years the bean counters were calling passenger rail "unprofitable"

do the numbers only account for the passengers heading to or from destinations in VA? or for the trains entire route with passengers boarding at other stations and disembarking from stations not in VA

andre wrote:*GASP* AN AMTRAK ROUTE TURNING A PROFIT!!! and for all these years the bean counters were calling passenger rail "unprofitable"
do the numbers only account for the passengers heading to or from destinations in VA? or for the trains entire route with passengers boarding at other stations and disembarking from stations not in VA

Good question, I believe that we're talking any boardings/alightings in Virginia, but that the revenues are pro-rated between the Virginia and Beyond Virginia parts of the itinerary based on mileage (and we only see the Virginia share). So if a 300 mile trip costs (a hypothetical) $90, and 50 miles are in VA, then 1/6th (or $15) gets counted as Virginia sales and 5/6ths (or $75) gets assigned to Amtrak. So Amtrak may either be profiting or losing on the other segment's revenue (and we aren't told directly).

We've been told Virginia's share of the ticket revs are more-than-offsetting Virginia share of the costs for the LYH-NEC service, and, on the flip side, that RVR-NEC is overperforming on passenger count, but underperforming on Virginia revenue only because RVR passengers go farther than expected north, so Amtrak is taking more than expected of their ticket price...which may or may not be profitable for Amtrak.

If you're Amtrak, there remain two other questions for whether Amtrak would continue the line (and the answers, as far as they are known, favor continuation):

Q1) Are the non-Virginia parts of the LYH NEC ticket profitable? (by filling empty seats or displacing lower-value customers, they would be) or are they money losers (displacing, say, a WAS-NRO customer, who would have paid a higher fare for the same seat northbound out of WAS?
A1) I'm going to guess its slightly profitable...that LYH NEC customers a bit below fare-per-mile basis with the other NEC markets, but every time an empty seat gets filled its a win.

Q2) What are the effects on the Cardinal?Has it been cannibalized or has "draining" low-$-per-mile locals off it had the effect of permitting the Cardinal to sell more long distance tickets> Are those long distance tickets more profitable per-mile than local VA trip?
A2) The evidence favors it being a "win": Cardinal fares are higher than NEC fares for the same itineraries, suggesting that the Cardinal is happy to "dump "its lower-yield traffic onto the LYH NEC train.

To me this suggests that LYH NEC could be continued even if it was showing what airlines call "Segment losses" (losing money on the local traffic) because it was contributing to "System Profitability" (making money on thru/connecting/premium-fare traffic) by both filling NEC trains fuller, and improving yields on the Cardinal. That LYH NEC is "Segment profitable" even more securely cements its future, IMO.

Arlington wrote: Q2) What are the effects on the Cardinal?Has it been cannibalized or has "draining" low-$-per-mile locals off it had the effect of permitting the Cardinal to sell more long distance tickets> Are those long distance tickets more profitable per-mile than local VA trip?
A2) The evidence favors it being a "win": Cardinal fares are higher than NEC fares for the same itineraries, suggesting that the Cardinal is happy to "dump "its lower-yield traffic onto the LYH NEC train.

Not absolutely sure about the Cardinal, but apparently they're quite sure that it's a "win" for the Crescent. I read a specific article (months ago, can't find it now) which stated that the Crescent was actually showing greater revenues and greater load factor, because the short-distance travellers who switched to the Regional had been replaced by longer-distance travellers from further south who had previously been deterred by trains which were full or near-full on their northern leg.