Returning to the original post ... This is what happens if you change the assumptions to account for a 30% increase in passenger carrying capacity:
FY 16
Acela Revenues: $593,720,009
Average Revenue Per Trainset (20 Trainsets): $29,686,000
Number of New Avelia Liberty Trainsets: 28
Projected Revenue (28 Trainsets @ $29,686,000 + ($29,686,000 x 30%)): $38,591,800
Projected Total
Acela Revenues (w/Avelia Liberty Trainsets): $1,080,570,400
Projected Net Increase in Revenues: $486,850,391
So the range in new revenues appears to be somewhere between $237M and $487M. The upper number may still be a little low due to potential changes to the
Northeast Regionals but I think at this point the estimate is closing in on the "real" figure. Worth noting that all of these figures are in 2016 dollars which would imply the following in 2022 assuming annual inflation at 2% from 2017 onwards:
2016 to 2017 CPI: $242,791,020 - $497,721,180
2017 to 2022 @ 2%: $268,060,904 - $549,524,400
The
net improvement in operating income is impossible to calculate because Amtrak doesn't break out operating expenses by service (nor should they for trade reasons) and it is unclear what the debt service on the new trainsets will be. Reading through the
Five Year Service Line Plans I thought it was interesting that Amtrak right now is not projecting a major increase in
Acela revenues (probably just a little too far out at the moment) but they do project an increase of $40M/year in 2021 for debt service payments which coincides with initial deliveries of the new trainsets. Also noteworthy they are
not projecting a decrease in
Northeast Regional revenues (perhaps the more significant projection of the two). The annual debt service increase in 2021 gives us a ballpark figure to work with (to an extent) to begin to consider changes to net operating income.
Estimated Impact on Net Operating Income (-$40M Adjustment for Debt Service, in 2022 $): $228,060,904 - $509,524,400
Estimated Operating (Deficit) in 2022 $ (@ $227M in 2016 $): ($256,222,740)
Estimated Operating (Deficit)/Surplus in 2022 $: ($28,161,836) - $253,301,660
So even with the most conservative projections (which to me are completely unreasonable) we are still seeing Amtrak with an operating deficit that is now down to less than $30M/year (2022 $) from $227M/year in 2016 $. Assuming a backwards inflation calculation of 2%/year all the way to 2016 this would imply a $25M/year operating deficit ($25,006,904) in 2016 $ which equates to an 89% reduction in operating deficit.
I completely understand and respect the opinions of those who feel that the change does not reflect "profitability". That to me is not why this discussion is important. Amtrak's operating deficit is a source of serious political weakness for them and is treated very differently from capital requests by Congress. The ability to eliminate this operating deficit will actually significantly increase Amtrak's leverage in Congress for capital improvements because they will be able to demonstrate that new or additional service resulting from capital improvements will not necessarily imply an increase to annual operating subsidies as well. This was already a "given" for the
Acela but in the future because of added financial flexibility there may be some room around the margins for Amtrak to do other things as well.