by gokeefe
I was tempted to resurrect an old thread but that would have buried the lede on what appears to be a major "Success Story" in the making.
First let's establish what the "operating deficit" is. Specifically I am using the same non-capital term as Amtrak which very roughly is the difference between income and operating expenses which excludes debt service, capital expenses and depreciation. In the most recent fiscal year reported the operating deficit was $227 million.
Second, how will this happen? It appears very likely that new revenues from the Acela expansion will produce that much if not more new revenue for Amtrak. An extremely conservative methodology yields the following results ...
FY 16 Acela Revenues: $593,720,009
Average Revenue Per Trainset (20 Trainsets): $29,686,000
Number of New Avelia Liberty Trainsets: 28
Projected Revenue (28 Trainsets @ $29,686,000): $831,208,000
Projected Net Increase in Revenues: $237,487,991
So that leaves Amtrak with about $10,000,000 to spare over and above the $227,000,000 they lost in FY 2016. I think this projection is extremely conservative for two very important reasons, first and perhaps foremost it does not take into consideration that the new Acela trainsets will have 30% greater passenger capacity. Second it also does not take into consideration that the new trainsets will cost less to operate because of an improved power to weight ratio which means Amtrak will be paying significantly less for power. There will probably be other improvements as well but these are the two biggest by far.
Obviously there will of course be increased costs in maintenance and labor for the new trainsets but I do not think these will be enough to wipe out the gains that Amtrak is clearly going to make. In fact the variable costs to run these trains are probably very small compared to the amount of fixed overhead that they are supporting company wide.
I understand that it may not be reasonable to assume that these trains will carry so many passengers but given the perpetual sellout status of so many trains on this service I am having a hard time believing that they are going to run at a lesser load factor.
It is possible that the new capacity will simply end up taking away from the Northeast Regionals but I am not convinced of that either. Nor would such a change begin to generate losses large enough to consume so much cash. I think Amtrak is going to end up eating a lot of what is left in the Washington-New York Air-Rail market and they will probably continue to take market share away from the airlines in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and Providence.
I also understand that some will say, "it doesn't matter they're still losing all their money on the transcons" and so forth but that's not my point. As a company, for the first time ever, Amtrak is almost certainly going to be able to cover their direct operating expenses and will not require operating support from Congress to run their trains elsewhere.
They will still need capital grants from Congress but in my eyes that remains a different issue. I think this is probably a view that others may share as well.
First let's establish what the "operating deficit" is. Specifically I am using the same non-capital term as Amtrak which very roughly is the difference between income and operating expenses which excludes debt service, capital expenses and depreciation. In the most recent fiscal year reported the operating deficit was $227 million.
Second, how will this happen? It appears very likely that new revenues from the Acela expansion will produce that much if not more new revenue for Amtrak. An extremely conservative methodology yields the following results ...
FY 16 Acela Revenues: $593,720,009
Average Revenue Per Trainset (20 Trainsets): $29,686,000
Number of New Avelia Liberty Trainsets: 28
Projected Revenue (28 Trainsets @ $29,686,000): $831,208,000
Projected Net Increase in Revenues: $237,487,991
So that leaves Amtrak with about $10,000,000 to spare over and above the $227,000,000 they lost in FY 2016. I think this projection is extremely conservative for two very important reasons, first and perhaps foremost it does not take into consideration that the new Acela trainsets will have 30% greater passenger capacity. Second it also does not take into consideration that the new trainsets will cost less to operate because of an improved power to weight ratio which means Amtrak will be paying significantly less for power. There will probably be other improvements as well but these are the two biggest by far.
Obviously there will of course be increased costs in maintenance and labor for the new trainsets but I do not think these will be enough to wipe out the gains that Amtrak is clearly going to make. In fact the variable costs to run these trains are probably very small compared to the amount of fixed overhead that they are supporting company wide.
I understand that it may not be reasonable to assume that these trains will carry so many passengers but given the perpetual sellout status of so many trains on this service I am having a hard time believing that they are going to run at a lesser load factor.
It is possible that the new capacity will simply end up taking away from the Northeast Regionals but I am not convinced of that either. Nor would such a change begin to generate losses large enough to consume so much cash. I think Amtrak is going to end up eating a lot of what is left in the Washington-New York Air-Rail market and they will probably continue to take market share away from the airlines in Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and Providence.
I also understand that some will say, "it doesn't matter they're still losing all their money on the transcons" and so forth but that's not my point. As a company, for the first time ever, Amtrak is almost certainly going to be able to cover their direct operating expenses and will not require operating support from Congress to run their trains elsewhere.
They will still need capital grants from Congress but in my eyes that remains a different issue. I think this is probably a view that others may share as well.
gokeefe