I'm still looking for the Amtrak breakdown, but in the meantime, here's a report prepared by FDOT exploring the profitability of various passenger routes in Florida using more or less existing rail infrastructure --
http://www.dot.state.fl.us/rail/Publica ... tFinal.pdf
The key points:
Corridor service between Tampa, Orlando, and Miami along Amtrak's current route, with no improvements to existing infrastructure whatsoever: operating ratio of 1.00 (no profit, but no loss; net operating expenses equal net revenue). This isn't in the executive report I linked above, it's only in the full 300-page report someonewhere online.
If minimal upgrades are made to the existing CSX tracks to allow 110mph operation over most of the route, along with the improvements that are/were supposed to have been done for SunRail east of Auburndale, the operating ratio becomes 1.02 (ie, for every $1.02 in revenue, operating expenses are $1.00). AFAIK, these are improvements that are fairly cheap, and FDOT has always taken them for granted as a baseline norm if corridor service along existing CSX tracks to Miami were implemented (hence, the exclusion of the "no improvements whatsoever" option from the executive report).
The main constraint on both the above is the limited potential for additional trains into Tampa. CSX just plain doesn't want them, and has made it clear to FDOT that they might tolerate a pair of trains each making one daily round trip between Tampa and Miami, but that's *it*. Period. To go beyond that, and/or make Tampa-Jacksonville service a viable option, FDOT has to at least build a single new track along the northern edge of CSX between Tampa and Auburndale.
If that track were built, corridor service between Miami-Tampa, Miami-Orlando, and Tampa-Orlando-Jacksonville would have a net operating ratio of 1.30. FDOT doesn't like to talk about this option much, because 1) it's a pretty mediocre vision for passenger rail in Florida, but it's also likely to be the most politically-appealing to Republican elected officials because it's the one passenger rail option that would actually make enough money from fares to recover not only the operating costs, but the capital construction costs as well... and still make a small profit above and beyond everything. However, 2) CSX won't voluntarily allow FDOT to have more than a limited-term lease on the corridor for their new track, and has made it clear that they'll fight hard and dirty to the last lawyer and make FDOT pay dearly if it insists on trying to take the ROW permanently. As a result, it would be profitable for ~25 years, then CSX could legally pull the plug and leave Florida SOL with respect to passenger rail into Tampa. Put another way, this is a stopgap measure to get viable intercity passenger service into Tampa that will easily pay for itself if fully utilized until the last day, but FDOT can't go into it without a firm exit strategy that basically entails building the Tampa-Orlando HSR route down I-4, because things will get ugly and expensive when the lease with CSX expires if they don't. Apparently, CSX *will* more or less permanently tolerate tracks on a fully grade-separated aerial structure through Lakeland, but that option would be so expensive, I-4 is actually a cheaper alternative).
The various FEC options are similar, but require new track to be viable for travel to Orlando.
If FDOT throws down the minimal track needed to allow 110mph trains between FEC and the CSX spur that runs from south of Orlando Airport to SR-528 ~6 miles east of the Greeneway so passenger trains can use FEC to get to Orlando Airport, the net operating ratio would be 107%. This is "Coastal Route, Phase 1".
If Florida were to basically build HSR-grade tracks from Tampa to Titusville, but did it in a way that used FRA-compliant trains that could also run on FEC (to permit direct service to Jacksonville and Miami), the net operating ratio would be a staggering (by passenger rail standards) 1.43.("Coastal Route, Phase 2"). THIS is part of the reason why companies like Virgin are drooling over Florida. If Florida were to resist the temptation to do non-FRA trains absent an ironclad guarantee that someone would pay to build the tracks all the way to Miami and Jacksonville in a timely manner once the initial Tampa-Orlando(-Titusville/FEC) segment were built, whomever ended up with the franchise would basically have a license to print money. I remember reading somewhere that this scenario would NOT take in enough revenue to make a profit AND pay down the capital construction costs, but WOULD take in enough to pay the interest on the construction costs (or if the feds pay 80-90%, it'll make enough to pay Florida's share of the costs) and still make a small profit. The main wildcard in THIS scenario is FEC. FEC isn't opposed to passenger rail if Florida pays to expand their track capacity, but there's probably a line somewhere around a 8-12 passenger trains per day in each direction where their patience is going to start wearing thin, and they're going to demand more substantial improvements that would push the cost closer to what brand new tracks for HSR along I-95.
