Patrick Boylan: The cleanup of the US Electric Grid is happening shockingly fast (
surprising even the Environmental Defense Fund) and if you're planning a 10 year procurement cycle, you should plan for a grid that's even cleaner by the mid 2020s. In 2017, 50% of the grid was natural gas or renewables, up from just 31% in 2008 (that's a freakishly fast change, coming mostly at coal's expense) and there's every reason to believe that this trend will continue for another 10 years.
California may feel its hydro go scarce, but that's going to be nicely offset by lots and lots of sun during periods of draught. Either way, the state is in a nice position to be showered with renewable hydro & wind (when it does snow/rain) or solar & wind (when dry & blistering) at a time when
solar+battery is now able to outbid natural gas in places with lots of sun and lots of electric devoted to (sunny peak time) air conditioning (
Solar+Battery has beaten natural gas in recent open plant-building procurement competitions in Arizona and Florida). That's going to be California too.
The last ten year's worth of "cleaner" were mostly driven by gas beating coal (and cutting emissions by about 30% to 70% each time they did so). The next 10 years transition will be smaller in Megawatt terms because renewable plants have to be built (whereas the gas plants were there and just needed to be revved up). But even a small(er) megawatt shift from any fossil to renewable will be just as big in emissions terms because solar and wind and grid-scale batteries will emit not just a fraction, but
nothing as they replace gas or coal (or transport diesel).