Southcoast Rail

Theres got to be someone on BEacon Hill that realizes hey you know what this Cape train is basically all set to go WTF ARE WE DOING!!!!!

Service to Buzzards Bay would certainly be a more realistically affordable project and a better value than the already bloated bag of gift projects proposed for New Bedford and Fall River, but as several people have posted out, the NB/FR politics would probably block it. Going to Southcoast Rail meetings is an experience everyone should have to see our "government" in action. Just listening to the speeches by the politicians (who get to speak before everyone else and for a longer time) is worth the visit. The political leaders are really impressed by their own importance and you can immediately see that they just can't wait a minute more to get their greedy hands on all that money. And it isn't THEIR money even though they think so, it is OUR money. Whether State or Federal funding, we are the ones who get handed the tab to pay for this thing. There is no free ride for the taxpayers on Southcoast Commuter Rail.

MX

How about Silver Line 5 - express bus from Attleboro to New Bedford. That way the pols think they are getting rapid transit but it gets done a lot cheaper than a real transit line.

Jon

Over the years, as the price tag on this project has gone up and up, I have become less and less in favor of this project and am now finally against it. When I first worked on it several years ago, the price tag was estimated at about $800 million, about double that of Greenbush with about double the estimated ridership. At that price, as a congestion reliever and aid to South Coast development, it made some sense, especially when compared to the cost of widening the SouthEast expressway or Route 24.

Now however, at $1.4 billion, it simply cannot be justified, for several reasons.

1. The price per projected rider, at more $200,000, is simply too high. At that price, you could just buy each rider a new Mercedes every ten years for the next forty years

2. The economic benefits to FR/NB would not in any way justify this kind of price. The mayors of FR/NB are in a fantasy world if they think it will magically transfom their cities into commuter meccas. It hasn't happened in Lawrence or Fitchburg, and has happened only somewhat in Worcester and Brockton, which are much closer. Fall River and New Bedford are basically dumps without appealing housing or scenic coastline. CR will not bring many new residents, because they are too far away and the towns are too unappealing, just like Fitchburg. Nor for that matter will it make it that much easier for existing residents to access jobs in Boston; the time and expense would be too high to make it worth their time for most jobs.

3. The CR service itself would not be particularly likeable. I know this sounds like anathema on a rail thread, but MBTA five across bench seats are not particularly comfortable (as oppposed to say, the nice 4 across bucket seats on Metrolink), especially for a 1 1/2 hour ride. Having ridden the commuter bus from Derry for a while, I don't see any advantage in comfort for anyone under 6' 2", and the bus may actually be better. The only advantage of the train would be that it wouldn't get stuck in traffic on the SE expressway, and even that would be partially negated by the considerable number of stops.

[DELETED]

frrc wrote:I recall seeing an article where the Town of Stoughton, and some other towns want the track depressed / tunnels built through their towns as part of the SouthCoast expansion effort, adding considerably to the cost.

Stoughton is just playing the game similar to the way Weymouth did. There trying to get anything they can out of this. There would be very little impact to stoughton if the abandonded section is rebuilt. There are 2 roads and about 5 private driveways that would need new crossings signals. I walked the abandonded section between Stoughton and North easton and most of the rail is still intact although badly grown over (10" dia trees in the middle).

All those tunnels and depressed crossings would certainly symbolize this project, which is a hole in the ground into which you throw money. Keep in mind that the average total weekday ridership out and back from New Bedford area in the previous studies was only projected at 745 people and that number was for several years after the start of service. An MBTA 1050 class hauling six coaches at 70 mph burns almost two gallons of #2 diesel per mile (EMD 16-645E3C and CAT 3412 both at typical load). Suppose there are 50 riders aboard, which is a little less than the capacity of a commuter bus, and a realistic one-trip load given the total daily ridership. If a diesel bus were providing the service it would be typically getting 5 to 6 miles per gallon. And yet Mayor Lang, Kristina Egan, and the various local politicians have the audacity to represent the train as always being "greener" than the other forms of transportation. I bring this up because 50 riders is just about the "break even" point on fuel consumption between the train and the same number of people driving their own cars between the same points. US fleet average fuel consumption for autos and trucks is around 23 mpg, maybe 24 after cash for clunkers, you can do the math. And that is just the fuel, it doesn't include equipment expense, track and signal related expense, maintenance, and crew expense for the train.

A commuter train with a small passenger load is a great big fuel pig, and New Bedford and Fall River are both at the end of long branches that would generate very little ridership south of Taunton. When you consider that anyone who is not already in downtown New Bedford could cut their total travel time considerably by driving their car to Middleborough/Lakeville station and going in from there, this service is a sure loser.

MX

I agree with you MX. If New Bedford and Fall River want the rail line they can gladly pay for it themselves.

Considering Patrick made this one of his first-term cornerstones to lock up one of the swing regions he'd have to count on for reelection, I wonder what's going to happen now that he's in deep trouble in the polls a year out and this project is in deep trouble for getting cancelled. My guess is there'll be some last-ditch effort to get the thing funded and fast-tracked hell or high water...and transit cuts in the Boston area if need be since that's the most locktight source of votes any Democrat can count on. Whether he can overcome the mounting evidence against the line, who knows. But if the plans are in danger I still doubt you're going to see the state back off a major transit push over the next year. It just may get deferred for a Western Mass splash, because that's another weaker base of voter support and one that's complained loudly about its transportation funding getting sucked East. Springfield extension on the Worcester main line to link with the new line from Hartford? Even if that makes less sense from an MBTA ridership perspective I wouldn't bet against a substitute transit monument to his administration if FR/NB falls.

Let's not forget which regions tipped the Governor's mansion to the Republicans for 16 consecutive years. At root this is ALL about locking up the swing voters who were left out of the Boston-centric transportation funding orgy of the last 2 decades. This isn't over, even if it should be.

What about DMU or diesel light rail time separated from freight traffic a la NJT River Line to connect Taunton, Fall River, and New Bedford. Can be a big loop around. Cross-platform at Lakeville. Hmmm...

Yes, that about gets it right; politics trumps logic every time. Which is why nothing will likely get done at all.
The last thing I hate about FR/NB is the way it blocks up every other potential project. No matter what it is, whether it's Green line to West Medford or CR to Buzzards Bay or anything else for that matter, FR/NB is the 800 lb gorilla in the room that always gets in the way. That's why, in fact, IMHO, no MBTA expansions at all will occur for the next 10 years, at least. With FR/NB always in the way, and the T (and the state) way in debt, what will happen is the usual endless round of "studies" designed to pretend to do something and mollify constituents, while nothing actually gets done. FR/NB will be kept as a cheap political sop, with each new gubernatorial candidate promising to do something for the folks down there, and then promptly reneging once installed in office and confronting the actual financial reality of the situation. Folks, most of us will die before train service ever makes it back to FR/NB.

I am totally out of line in thinking that ridership might on these lines might increase over time? Fall River and New Bedford already have a combined population of around 200,000, but have supported higher populations in the past. If the commuter rail extension was coupled with city improvement projects, new development, and the redevelopment of underutilized housing, both cities could see a steady rise in population. The cities could market themselves as affordable alternatives to Boston and its closer suburbs. Additionally, if commercial and industrial developments currently underway, such as the Fall River Industrial Park, were connected to the commuter rail system, the line could easily see reverse commuters and local commuters.

My proposal would be a SouthCoast Development Package. The centerpiece of this bill would be the SouthCoast Commuter Rail Line. The bill would also feature a number of incentive plans to draw commercial and industrial jobs back to Fall River and New Bedford. Companies and development firms would receive tax incentives to renovate existing buildings for new uses, as well as for constructing new transit oriented developments. Money for other public works projects, such as road improvements and new schools, would be included in the package. These projects would also create incentive for both businesses and prospective home buyers to look more closely at the SouthCoast.

The SouthCoast Development Plan-

Phase One:
-The each neighborhood in Fall River and New Bedford, as well as other SouthCoast communities, develop 'Neighborhood Development Plans'. These plans would outline areas for possible redevelopment and potential community investment projects (such as new schools, road improvements, utility reconstruction, green-space improvements). The plans should be developed by members of each community with the support of professional planners. With both local and professional involvement, these plans will be the base of new development while at the same time opening new economic and social opportunities to existing residents.

Phase Two:
-Using the 'Neighborhood Development Plans', SouthCoast political leaders, working with their counterparts in the State House, will develop the final 'SouthCoast Improvement Plan'. The plan will outline the funding needed for the public works projects outlined in the 'Neighborhood Development Plans', as well as tax incentives for corporations to build new developments in the SouthCoast. Simultaneously, the MBTA will conduct a final study, using both existing studies and the 'Neighborhood Development Plans', on the SouthCoast Commuter Rail. This study should approach the commuter rail plan as both a system of bringing people from the SouthCoast to Boston and a system to bring suburban commuters to Fall River and New Bedford. The final MBTA commuter rail plan, the public works funding plan, and the tax incentive plan will ultimately be combined into a single bill, 'The SouthCoast Development Funding Package'.

Phase Three:
-With funding from local, state, and federal sources, SouthCoast communities will begin to construct the projects outlined in the 'SouthCoast Improvement Plan'. When possible, these projects will be constructed using local labor and materials (though proper oversight will be needed in order to reduce 'Big Dig' style corruption and mismanagement).
-The MBTA will construct the SouthCoast Commuter Rail. The initial project will most likely be similar to the current proposal: a diesel-powered commuter rail line running as an extension of the Stoughton line with a branch at Myricks Junction.
-The Southeastern Regional Transit Authority will work with developers to provide shuttle bus services to non-transit oriented commercial and industrial areas for reverse commuters. Additionally, the SRTA will establish new feeder bus lines to bring SouthCoast commuters to the rail stations.

Phase Four (if development and growth occur):
-The MBTA will triple track and electrify the SouthCoast Commuter Rail Line. New stations will be added in areas high growth rates, as well as areas primed for future development. Three types of service will run on the expanded SouthCoast Commuter Rail Line: Express Service (Connecting Downtown Fall River and New Bedford directly to Downtown Boston), Local Service (Stopping at all stations on the line, including the newly constructed stops), and Rapid Transit Service (More frequent service to stations within Fall River and New Bedford. The service will essentially act as a light rail system and will provide the backbone of the SRTA transit system)
-A second development package will be developed for the SouthCoast region. The package, co-developed by Massachusetts and Rhode Island, would work to establish the SouthCoast, including Providence and its suburbs, as the second major New England metropolitan area.

Phase Five (if development and growth occur):
-The MBTA, SRTA, and RIPTA develop and construct the SouthCoast Transportation Plan. Possible projects include: a light rail line running from Downtown Providence, through Fall River, and terminating in New Bedford; a light rail system serving Providence and its immediate suburbs; streetcar lines replacing the feeder bus routes in Fall River and New Bedford; the extension of existing MBTA commuter rail lines to Newport, RI and Kingston (or Westerly), RI; and a commuter rail line running from Worcester, through Providence and Fall River, and terminating either in New Bedford or Hyannis.

I know this proposal sounds like a farfetched fantasy that would face endless political and financial problems, but I would love to hear all of your constructive input, suggestions, and criticisms. It would be awesome if we could develop this idea into a more realistic proposal.

@oblivion468: Obviously, a plan like yours would be ideal and would make a lot more sense than the current plan, but frankly I don't think there's the political will to do something like you suggest. The SRTA can't even be bothered to run busses on Sundays, so I highly doubt they would be willing to go along with the sort of massive improvements to local service needed to make your plan viable. As awesome (and useful) as a BART-style combined CR/Rapid transit system linking RI and the South Coast with each other and Boston, I just can't see it happening. The fact that the MBTA is part of the MA government and has little incentive to build extensive commuter rail service in RI doesn't help either.

Personally, I think that a more realistic scenario would be as follows: 2-car DMU based trains to FR/NB (maybe hourly at peak, every two hours off-peak and on Saturdays, and four or five round trips on Sundays) This would allow rail service to be operated at a low cost and would more adequately match the level of ridership than traditional locomotive-hauled service would. It would also leave the T with an excuse to accuire a fleet of DMUs that could serve purposes other than FR/NB runs, such as bulking up service frequencies on and adding weekend service on the Fairmount line as well as adding Sunday service on the Needham line.

Madcrow, your suggestion points out that one thing we need in this country is a viable DMU design that could meet the needs for commuter rail expansion in several areas, perhaps also some Amtrak service. Ever since Colorado Railcar bit the dust there has not been such a capability. The NJ RiverLINE cars were successful but they were light rail and would not meet FRA standards. Perhaps it is time to dig out the old Budd RDC designs and update them.

Jon

Economic development always sounds wonderful and almost everybody is in favor of it until it comes to the question of what you are going to build in the Southcoast area that anybody wants to buy, and how much industry you can lure in to justify a more than $1.4 billion dollar commuter rail service. Right now New Bedford and Fall River can't complete for businesses with many other cities in Massachusetts, much less the rest of the US and the world. The list of business that have failed in NB/FR since World War Two is very impressive and still growing.

MX