Route 78: New bus route - Cornwells to 30th St. Express

Patrick Boylan wrote:

R3 Passenger wrote:New development on Route 78: SEPTA wants to make it permanent

http://www.septa.org/notice/asp/hearings.html wrote: Three early morning trips depart from Cornwells Heights between 5:20am and 5:25am, and collectively carry an average of 130 passengers per weekday. Two late night trips depart from Center City at 12:45am and 1:45am and carry an average of 40 passengers and 20 passengers respectively.

A couple of points I mentioned before, which nobody seems to acknowledge this time around
1. if we are to believe these figures, 130 passengers ride the bus inbound, only 60 ride outbound. Come on folks, do you really think those 70 people never go back home? Chances are all 130 of the inbound passengers take the train home, and maybe they do so before the start of the evening peak at 3:30pm. And maybe all of those 70 outbound riders took the train inbound, again in off peak direction around 4pm. It sounds like the railroad's getting to fill off peak seats at less than the cost of adding another train, assuming these 5 bus runs cost less than 1 train.

Matthew Mitchell wrote:And it looks like from the schedule you need two night trips.

2. Matt's quote here is the closest I've seen on this one of my prior mentioned points. How many of the current 200 passengers, 130 inbound 60 outbound, will we lose because the train frequency won't be as much as the bus frequency? Or does anybody think they'll run 5 trains, 3 5:20am-5:25am and 2 12:39am-1:39am? I'm willing betting some of the passengers aiming for that 5:25am bus do so with a warm feeling knowing that if they miss it they have 2 more chances.

To add, the bus involved on the evening trips is already on the street; it deadheads off a Route 14 run to do both outbound trips to Cornwells Heights (at least on the first schedule and at the expense of on-time performance for the 2nd trip at times). The three morning trips all head up to NE Philly for other routes after their runs on the 78 as well.

Patrick Boylan wrote:

R3 Passenger wrote:New development on Route 78: SEPTA wants to make it permanent

http://www.septa.org/notice/asp/hearings.html wrote: Three early morning trips depart from Cornwells Heights between 5:20am and 5:25am, and collectively carry an average of 130 passengers per weekday. Two late night trips depart from Center City at 12:45am and 1:45am and carry an average of 40 passengers and 20 passengers respectively.

2. Matt's quote here is the closest I've seen on this one of my prior mentioned points. How many of the current 200 passengers, 130 inbound 60 outbound, will we lose because the train frequency won't be as much as the bus frequency? Or does anybody think they'll run 5 trains, 3 5:20am-5:25am and 2 12:39am-1:39am? I'm willing betting some of the passengers aiming for that 5:25am bus do so with a warm feeling knowing that if they miss it they have 2 more chances.

Pat, Go to Cornwells Heights station at 5:15 AM and watch the three articulated buses line up one after the other at the same time. Watch the crowd climb onto them at the same time. Watch how they leave at practically the same time. It is not an issue of "Oh, I missed the bus. There will be another one coming in two minutes." It's an issue where on paper it looks like three buses, but in reality, it is one train of multi-segmented buses next to a rail line operating on a rail fare. It is the point that I have been making since the inception of this route.

I have no problem with the two late buses since the ridership on those is not enough to warrant filling one railcar, let alone an entire train.

R3 Passenger wrote:Pat, Go to Cornwells Heights station at 5:15 AM and watch the three articulated buses line up one after the other at the same time. Watch the crowd climb onto them at the same time. Watch how they leave at practically the same time. It is not an issue of "Oh, I missed the bus. There will be another one coming in two minutes." It's an issue where on paper it looks like three buses, but in reality, it is one train of multi-segmented buses next to a rail line operating on a rail fare. It is the point that I have been making since the inception of this route.

I have no problem with the two late buses since the ridership on those is not enough to warrant filling one railcar, let alone an entire train.

I drove up there this morning just to check out the morning departures on the 78... and that is exactly how it went down. All three buses showed up, loaded together, and when they departed, they all left within a 40-second time span between 5:24 and 5:25am.

Silverliner II wrote:

R3 Passenger wrote:Pat, Go to Cornwells Heights station at 5:15 AM and watch the three articulated buses line up one after the other at the same time. Watch the crowd climb onto them at the same time. Watch how they leave at practically the same time. It is not an issue of "Oh, I missed the bus. There will be another one coming in two minutes." It's an issue where on paper it looks like three buses, but in reality, it is one train of multi-segmented buses next to a rail line operating on a rail fare. It is the point that I have been making since the inception of this route.

I have no problem with the two late buses since the ridership on those is not enough to warrant filling one railcar, let alone an entire train.

I drove up there this morning just to check out the morning departures on the 78... and that is exactly how it went down. All three buses showed up, loaded together, and when they departed, they all left within a 40-second time span between 5:24 and 5:25am.

See? I'm not crazy!

That proves nothing about your mental health, you could still be crazy

Anyway I sit corrected, and wonder why they bothered to schedule a 5 minute span if they aren't going to adhere to it. And does that make the first bus habitually 5 minutes late at 30th ST, or is there enough padding that it doesn't matter?

The next interlocking north of CWH is GRUNDY.

Market East to Bristol (local) is approximately 44 min. Let's say it's 50 min as GRUNDY is north of Bristol.

20 minutes is plenty of time to turn around.

Total time for a round trip would be approximately 1:15.

130 passengers on the SB trip from CWH alone would be $452 at the RRD average fare of $3.48.

Assuming we can get 20 additional passengers for the outbound trip and 40 additional passengers from the added stops on the inbound trip (that's probably conservative), the total revenue for this round trip would be $661.

On the cost side, a 1.25 hour trip with a 2 car set would cost 2.5 veh hours(111.1 per hour) + 97.6 veh miles($2.91 per veh mile) + 48.8(8.1 per train mile ATK fee) = $957

While 69% farebox recovery is not perfect, its still WAY above the RRD average of 45%. Plus the costs may be lower due to the time of day.

How likely is it that SEPTA will run the outbound trip you propose in service and not deadhead? I assume costs are less if the train originates in Powelton yard without going through 30th St.
How does your 69% compare with the farebox ratio of the morning's 3 buses?

I don't know the FRR of the current buses, as the fare is different from the average specified in ASP2012. And as it's an experimental order, it's not shown in the list.

The bus cost is probably somewhere close to (3 buses x 1.25 hr x $52.45) per veh mile + (18.6 mi x 6 trips x $3.82 mi) = $623.

Probably less as it's moves that would otherwise be made.

Amtrak7 wrote:I don't know the FRR of the current buses, as the fare is different from the average specified in ASP2012. And as it's an experimental order, it's not shown in the list.

The bus cost is probably somewhere close to (3 buses x 1.25 hr x $52.45) per veh mile + (18.6 mi x 6 trips x $3.82 mi) = $623.

Probably less as it's moves that would otherwise be made.

It might not be an experimental order for long. There are public hearings scheduled for November 29th involving some minor changes to a few City and Suburban bus routes, including making Route 78 permanent.

Silverliner II wrote:

Amtrak7 wrote:I don't know the FRR of the current buses, as the fare is different from the average specified in ASP2012. And as it's an experimental order, it's not shown in the list.

The bus cost is probably somewhere close to (3 buses x 1.25 hr x $52.45) per veh mile + (18.6 mi x 6 trips x $3.82 mi) = $623.

Probably less as it's moves that would otherwise be made.

It might not be an experimental order for long. There are public hearings scheduled for November 29th involving some minor changes to a few City and Suburban bus routes, including making Route 78 permanent.

It's because of the news of that scheduled hearing that this topic got resurrected this week.

Amtrak7: do those costs include the wear and tear on the roadways? Since ALL of the true costs of operating buses over trains are never accurately compared, buses are always going to come out on top. Under the logic that we should only operate what's cheaper on paper, the region might as well scrap half the rail system, or substitute bus service for all non-peak hour transit service. The region should also shut down the Frankford El and BSL after 9PM and operate buses instead.

While we're at it, lets look at the cost recovery of the various bus routes that carry handfuls of people after hours. The government should create its own taxi authority and just provide individualized taxi service for the few riders that patronize many of the buses in the Northeast and Bucks County outside of rush hour. Alot of money could be saved.

rslitman wrote:

Silverliner II wrote:It might not be an experimental order for long. There are public hearings scheduled for November 29th involving some minor changes to a few City and Suburban bus routes, including making Route 78 permanent.

It's because of the news of that scheduled hearing that this topic got resurrected this week.

I'd seen that and forgotten it was already mentioned... whoops...

Apparently this experiment has is the best "loss-leader" for service across the Annual Service Plan with an 83% operating ratio.

What's a good ratio, what's a bad ratio, and what's the typical ratio?

Well the typical (average) ratio for City Transit is 36%, City w/ Suburban characeristics is 31%, surburban transit is 25% and Regional Rail is 47%.
Good would be above those averages, and bad is below a 60% of that average operating ratio. Minimum acceptable is: city transit 22%, city w/ suburban characteristics is 18%, suburban routes is 15% and regional rail is 27%.


The 78 is the best performing transit line, the next best performing bus is the 60 at 60%.

The best performing light/heavy rail is the 11 at 52%, being the 5th best performing transit side route.

The Elwyn line is the best performing regional rail at 64%, and the worst performing is the Trenton line at 34%.

The annual service report would have all the goodies that you want to know about it ... Check out page 40 and beyond.