CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

No question they are going to do exactly that Mr. Norman. The CP CEO addressed this very question at the time of the acquisition and said the railroad would be brought up to "CP main line standards" which was clarified as FRA Class 3. If this was a Class II railroad I would describe it as "probably". Given that we're talking about a Class I with no requirements for government grants I would describe it as "definitely".

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gokeefe wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm Notable to me that Saint John could potentially have service from three Class I railroads if "Topper" can get to the pole first. That is a rather compelling scenario. Not sure it's realistic that there would be enough traffic but it certainly seems significant.

If CN is the winner they would be able to serve the New York area market with service at Naugatuck, CT connecting to steamship lines out of Saint John via Mattawamkeag. Same goes for NS of course but CN seems like they might have more to gain from that scenario. NS already has their own lanes into that area.

Some of this is starting to make rational sense ...

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Anyone who thinks you can effectively dray service NYC from Naugatuck, CT has never worked in trucking... you'll be lucky to turn one load a day, if that, as all the RDCs are in eastern PA, Jersey or the Hudson Valley (the last one you could do alright via 84 or Tappan Zee).

Besides, if I'm a shipper in Atlantic Canada, I'd just put the box into Halifax to reach NYC, as most services that call Halifax also call NYC as part of the 'great circle' route from Europe, or the Suez. Even a lot of Panama canal services hit Halifax first and then jump down the coast and the transit time is usually a day or two on the water.

NHV 669 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:36 pm CP has already brought two rail trains onto the system over the weekend, one is dropping east of Farnham today in Magog. The other dropped their rail train at Moosehead siding yesterday, with the same two barns (9011/9017) that led a ballast train onto the US side on Saturday. They aren't wasting any time with upgrades for this shipping lane, that's for sure.

Well winter is rapidly approaching so if they don't move fast they will miss their opportunity until next year.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:00 pm So far as I'm concerned. "Timmy", just wants some ready scratch to buy an Ambassorship in the Trump Second Term.

Knowing how private and reclusive he is, I think he'd have a lot of difficulty in the role of ambassador (or a cabinet position). That doesn't strike me as something that would interest him. He's famously "off the grid" and apparently he avoids cameras at all costs.

gokeefe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:20 pm Bucksport had some characteristics that could have supported port development but the site was far too small and with Searsport right next door utterly pointless.

While it's certainly true that social media advertising is cheap it's also carefully targeted. As MEC407 noted to have a targeted digital ad appear in our feeds here in Maine is pretty astonishing stuff. CP's message of "ship globally from Searsport, Maine" is even more impressive ...

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For what it's worth, I've been seeing the same ads in Massachusetts...

MEC407 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:28 pm Knowing how private and reclusive he (Mellon) is, I think he'd have a lot of difficulty in the role of ambassador (or a cabinet position). That doesn't strike me as something that would interest him. He's famously "off the grid" and apparently he avoids cameras at all costs.

OK, Mr. Maine Central "preserved Steam locomotive", and Moderator of this forum, what IS he up to?

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I don't think he is up to anything other than wanting to cash out after playing trains for the past 39 years. The hoosac tunnel repairs just moved up the pill that was going to be swallowed eventually.

troffey wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:44 pm

gokeefe wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:20 pm Bucksport had some characteristics that could have supported port development but the site was far too small and with Searsport right next door utterly pointless.

While it's certainly true that social media advertising is cheap it's also carefully targeted. As MEC407 noted to have a targeted digital ad appear in our feeds here in Maine is pretty astonishing stuff. CP's message of "ship globally from Searsport, Maine" is even more impressive ...

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For what it's worth, I've been seeing the same ads in Massachusetts...

Perhaps this ad blitz is less targeted as shippers and more intended to soften up public opposition to port expansion, increased traffic (including resulting noise and the blocking of crossings. And of course those "dreadful" idling engines- there are entire Youtube channels dedicated to anti-railroad NIMBY's who have purchased houses near tracks that predate current owners by 100 or more years, but I digress. I think the social media ad blitz may be a well-crafted and intentionally conducted effort to become ingrained in the conscience of the local populations.

CN9634 wrote:Anyone who thinks you can effectively dray service NYC from Naugatuck, CT has never worked in trucking... you'll be lucky to turn one load a day, if that, as all the RDCs are in eastern PA, Jersey or the Hudson Valley (the last one you could do alright via 84 or Tappan Zee).

I saw this and wondered if perhaps Nestle/Poland Springs DC in White Plains is the exception ... Apparently it is ...

CN9634 wrote:Besides, if I'm a shipper in Atlantic Canada, I'd just put the box into Halifax to reach NYC, as most services that call Halifax also call NYC as part of the 'great circle' route from Europe, or the Suez. Even a lot of Panama canal services hit Halifax first and then jump down the coast and the transit time is usually a day or two on the water.

It seems fair to assume that no amount of jockeying would be able to overcome the advantages conveyed by landing a container right on top of the market and eliminating the rail move entirely.


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Idle thoughts:
With regard to Pan Am Southern, it's not clear to me that half the D3 route is worth keeping:
- The bulk of NS traffic on PAS is interchange to/from P&W at Gardner and autos/containers/Maine traffic to/from Ayer that could easily be accommodated on the high quality CSX Boston line via Worcester assuming some sort of quid pro quo can be reached (eg, giving CSX haulage rights to Reading to permit interchange with NS-locked Reading & Northern)
- As far as I know there are no shippers between N Adams and Greenfield (~39 miles)and between E Deerfield Yard and Otter River (32 miles). N Adams/Hoosick Jct (VRS interchange)/Eagle Bridge (Battenkill RR) could be serviced by a 25-30 mile long shortline from Mechanicville while Seaman Paper could be serviced out of Ayer by a 14 mile branch from the end of MBTA serviced track at Westminster (or alternatively by P&W from Gardner (NEWW and Maki).
- CSX & NS traffic for the Conn River line (excellent quality MassDOT-owned track north and south) could handled at Springfield

Net: to a potential buyer, PAS might seem to have approximately 70 miles of unproductive track in questionable condition (including a 5 mile long tunnel that is isn't cleared for double stacks). Of course heaven and earth might need to be re-located to get NS and CSX to share the B&A. And the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cash-strapped though it may be, might prevent abandonment of D3 as a through route unless all parties buy into open access on the B&A and other Massachusetts lines.

gokeefe wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm Notable to me that Saint John could potentially have service from three Class I railroads if "Topper" can get to the pole first. That is a rather compelling scenario. Not sure it's realistic that there would be enough traffic but it certainly seems significant.

If CN is the winner they would be able to serve the New York area market with service at Naugatuck, CT connecting to steamship lines out of Saint John via Mattawamkeag. Same goes for NS of course but CN seems like they might have more to gain from that scenario. NS already has their own lanes into that area.

Some of this is starting to make rational sense ...

So, a potential rational business case is that PAR/potential -successor will be able to compete with a faster and fully-cleared CP with single-stack or be able to find/justify the substantial capital to both fully clear for doublestack and speed up service, targeted by a carrier, who unlike CP up until their purchase of CMQ, already serves at least one important and competitive Atlantic port?

Much more likely NS and/or CSX participates in St. John traffic via Albany-area, Buffalo or PA gateways if service is needed to points in their networks with CN's focus elsewhere.

johnpbarlow wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:05 am Idle thoughts:
With regard to Pan Am Southern, it's not clear to me that half the D3 route is worth keeping:
- The bulk of NS traffic on PAS is interchange to/from P&W at Gardner and autos/containers/Maine traffic to/from Ayer that could easily be accommodated on the high quality CSX Boston line via Worcester assuming some sort of quid pro quo can be reached (eg, giving CSX haulage rights to Reading to permit interchange with NS-locked Reading & Northern)
- As far as I know there are no shippers between N Adams and Greenfield (~39 miles)and between E Deerfield Yard and Otter River (32 miles). N Adams/Hoosick Jct (VRS interchange)/Eagle Bridge (Battenkill RR) could be serviced by a 25-30 mile long shortline from Mechanicville while Seaman Paper could be serviced out of Ayer by a 14 mile branch from the end of MBTA serviced track at Westminster (or alternatively by P&W from Gardner (NEWW and Maki).
- CSX & NS traffic for the Conn River line (excellent quality MassDOT-owned track north and south) could handled at Springfield

Net: to a potential buyer, PAS might seem to have approximately 70 miles of unproductive track in questionable condition (including a 5 mile long tunnel that is isn't cleared for double stacks). Of course heaven and earth might need to be re-located to get NS and CSX to share the B&A. And the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cash-strapped though it may be, might prevent abandonment of D3 as a through route unless all parties buy into open access on the B&A and other Massachusetts lines.

I don't even know where to begin on this.

First of all - no, the majority of NS traffic is not going to the P&W. A hefty chunk sure, but no where near the bulk of it.

I guess the Ayer traffic could go via CSX, except the fact that it already hasn't and NS says they aren't giving up on their investment in PAS. NS is not going to pay CSXT to essentially move every ton of their New England traffic. There is no point to even having any NE presence if this is the case.

PAS and the (B&M Fitchburg prior) west of Gardner before it is largely the same as it ever was and the same as the D&H - next to zero online customers. Yet, other railroads have held on these lines for their line haul/bridge. Things aren't going to change.

Hypothetically, if Saint John ever really grew to become "Prince Rupert of the East" and became a viable alternative to New York, what would it take to get all of the PAR/PAS mainline (or at least Keag-Ayer/ Worcester) fully cleared for double stacks and/or autoracks?

In Maine you'd be looking at modification or replacement of several overhead bridges, as well as track undercutting in some spots. Undercutting can create a lot of drainage issues which must be remedied.

I don't have exact numbers or locations but I imagine there's a report or study out there somewhere, either at MDOT or Billerica, detailing the what/where/how. You'll get nothing from Billerica but MDOT would probably respond to you, and if they don't, you can always prod them with a FOAA request.

Cosakita18 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:13 am Hypothetically, if Saint John ever really grew to become "Prince Rupert of the East" and became a viable alternative to New York, what would it take to get all of the PAR/PAS mainline (or at least Keag-Ayer/ Worcester) fully cleared for double stacks and/or autoracks?

FYI - Pan Am clearance map:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... rances.jpg