Brightline Financial Performance

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:58 pm As I've noted around here, Sgt. Smith, I think Florida is quite pro-passenger rail - so long as it isn't Amtrak.

I would not rule out (maybe I won't be around to see it) that a rail passenger agency serving "Tampa Bay" will develop. Brightline could have in mind to wait to see what lines such an agency will use (or build from scratch) and then approach that agency for trackage into I would guess into Tampa Union Station.

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IMO using Tampa station makes a lot of sense. Probably not in my time. However, in the future although not in present plans I would expect return of passenger service from Tampa to Ft Myers maybe even Naples will happen.

We have a problem with any proposed regional passenger service, and with Brightline using such to access the Tampa Bay region, and that is how the region is "hub and spokes" as distinct from the "straight lines" that represent both Orlando and, definitely, the Gold Coast.

There is also, being reasonable and practical, the problem of accessing regions to the South of the Bay. Considering how it has taken 25 years of "politikking" to get a shovel in the ground for Gateway, think what would be involved there.

We're not talking about Putin's Kerson Strait bridge where he decreed it would be built to have ready access to his conquered lands - and likely, before the present conflict ends, the Ukrainians will again knock it down.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:20 am We have a problem with any proposed regional passenger service, and with Brightline using such to access the Tampa Bay region, and that is how the region is "hub and spokes" as distinct from the "straight lines" that represent both Orlando and, definitely, the Gold Coast.

There is also, being reasonable and practical, the problem of accessing regions to the South of the Bay. Considering how it has taken 25 years of "politikking" to get a shovel in the ground for Gateway, think what would be involved there.

We're not talking about Putin's Kerson Strait bridge where he decreed it would be built to have ready access to his conquered lands - and likely, before the present conflict ends, the Ukrainians will again knock it down.

I just looked at the Florida rail map, and apparently CSX does have lines maintained to Class III that wrap around the Bay and go to Sarasota and (separately) to the Fort Myers area. Whether they and Brightline would be interested in working together, particularly since there might be an end change coming out of Tampa (I don't know if there's a wye in the area).

Mr. Mark HB. apparently you hold that the entire region can be served by rail without a bridge paralleling the causeway and also the Skyway.

My annual Florida journeys are to the East Coast, so my Florida knowledge of the Tampa Bay region is less so.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:14 pm Mr. Mark HB. apparently you hold that the entire region can be served by rail without a bridge paralleling the causeway and also the Skyway.

My annual Florida journeys are to the East Coast, so my Florida knowledge of the Tampa Bay region is less so.

I simply observed that there are existing lines (claimed in the Florida rail map as maintained to Class III) wrapping around the east side of the Bay; I make no claims as to the financial or political viability of using them . And I assume that St. Petersburg would be, to use an acronym appropriate to the Sunshine State, SOL.

Also, having driven over the psychological torture experiment that is the modern Sunshine Skyway Bridge more than once, I wouldn't dream of suggesting trying to cross that strait via rail.

Crossing the straight at the end of St. Pete wouldn't make sense as the bridge to do so would be more than they could dream of for revenue. You would need a lift or swing span large enough to accommodate the freight ships coming in and out of Port Tampa as well as the cruise ships that currently just barley fit under the Skyway Bridge.

The easier choice would be to use the current CSX/Seminole Gulf routing to Sarasota along the east side of the bay. The issue with this would be that it would involve a wye move somewhere as you would go into Tampa and then need to reverse the roughly 4 miles back to Yeoman yard where the line to Bradenton/Sarasota breaks off. From there you would most likely have stations in Bradenton and Sarasota though the line would most likely be limited to relatively slow speeds due to the curvature and residential areas it goes through.

In a dream world, they could convince the SW Florida counties to cede the Legacy Trail to them as well and extend the line to Venice and it's restored 1927 station but I assume just being able to upgrade the line to Sarasota would be enough of a NIMBY fight.

Southwestern Florida needs some sort of commuter rail desperately down there. However, Southwestern Florida is far more retiree-centric than any other part of Florida, so I can't imagine there are many people who commute to city centers, like seen in South(eastern) Florida. The sprawl in Southwestern Florida might also make getting a commuter line going more difficult, as you'd have a ton of parties/communities lobbying to be served (or avoided) by the train.

The furth south on the western end of the Florida peninsula you go, the more it looks like CSX has been jumping ship on their routes down there. Which could be beneficial, since that means no more freight traffic to compete with, but the Legacy Trail (and other trail interests) have been pretty aggressive and quick in swallowing any RoW that gets abandoned.

IMO the Tampa Bay and surrounding communities, would be better served by multiple light rail lines along their sprawling hub-and-spoke rails, than traditional heavy commuter rail. I'd also imagine light rail would be more digestible for the NIMBYs there.

Speaking of NIMBYs, I do not know what the political situation in Southwestern Florida is like, but on the Eastern part of the Florida Peninsula, we all know about the NIMBYs, who had a fair amount of financial and political connections, fought tooth and nail to fight Brightline there - and they failed, miserably. They didn't even delay Brightline's construction, at all, if I recall correctly. Now, if that scenario were to happen in the Northeast, it's likely the NIMBYs would've stopped Brightline in its tracks.

markhb wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 4:55 pm I just looked at the Florida rail map, and apparently CSX does have lines maintained to Class III that wrap around the Bay and go to Sarasota and (separately) to the Fort Myers area. Whether they and Brightline would be interested in working together, particularly since there might be an end change coming out of Tampa (I don't know if there's a wye in the area).

Do you have a link to this rail map? I would like to see it for myself.

JohnFromJersey wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:06 pm Do you have a link to this rail map? I would like to see it for myself.

https://www.openrailwaymap.org/
is quite reliable and useful

JohnFromJersey wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:06 pm

markhb wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 4:55 pm I just looked at the Florida rail map, and apparently CSX does have lines maintained to Class III that wrap around the Bay and go to Sarasota and (separately) to the Fort Myers area. Whether they and Brightline would be interested in working together, particularly since there might be an end change coming out of Tampa (I don't know if there's a wye in the area).

Do you have a link to this rail map? I would like to see it for myself.

I'm a "go to the source" guy... I used the ArcGIS map linked here under "Maps & Data".

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:58 pm As I've noted around here, Sgt. Smith, I think Florida is quite pro-passenger rail - so long as it isn't Amtrak.

Could you explain that for a foreigner like me?

Mr. Rich

Brightline
Sun Rail
Tri-Rail
"Talk" of regional rail transit for both Jax and Tampa

Lack of any Amtrak expansion - in fact contraction - within the State.

I think this is sufficient to support my statement of pro-passenger rail, so long as it isn't Amtrak.

Finally, I acknowledge that Brightline is ostensibly a private sector venture, but "the jury's still out" as to whether they will "make numbers" sufficient to service - let alone retire - the indebtedness on the reported 8% interest Private Activity Bonds (no Federal tax on those babies and if the holders are FL residents, no State tax either). In which case, I believe the State will assume its operation rendering it one more State agency.

Brightline has released a series of reports stating that demand for their services exceeds the supply of cars that Brightline can currently provide!

This Fitch rating report can hardly be considered a "positive" for Brightline continuing to remain in the private sector:

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/i ... 22-04-2024

I'm quite certain that Brightline East is here to stay. Pro passenger rail (so long as it isn't Amtrak) Florida will simply assume its operation and financial obligations.

To date, I have not seen any reports that "they've made numbers" and while hardly indicative of much, I thought my McCoy to West Palm joyride this past February was rather "unpopulated" with 99 (my count) faces aboard.