BandA wrote:What would be the impact on highways if the NEC passengers had to be accommodated by bus? I.e. X number of buses per hour which take Y% of a lane which is already 110% of capacity...
I’m going to assume we mean a catastrophe like a structural failure of the Raritan Viaduct that allows some NJT service but not TRE or PHL. Conservatively at rush hour, that’s 4 Amtrak/direction/hour (appx 1 Acela, 1 LD, 1 Regional, one Keystone) averaging ~200 passengers, plus 5 NJT NEC trains at ~800 people apiece inbound, ~400 per hour outbound (both Trenton and Jersey Ave trains.) I count (200*8) + ((800*5)+(400*5)) = 7600 displaced passengers. Figure 400 of those passengers will switch to air shuttles and hope Amtrak will be able to shove 1 Regional/hour/direction onto CSX to accommodate another 600 people. I come up with 6600 people/hour very roughly - that’s something like 110 buses at 60 people/bus? Probably 90 inbound, 20 outbound in the morning departing from Trenton, Hamilton, and Princeton for Metropark, Secaucus, Hoboken/PATH, PABT, and NYP proper, plus local buses from Edison to New Brunswick and Jersey Avenue.
That also assumes everyone stays on public transit. If not, it probably means 110 buses plus 2000 passenger vehicles, (80+1900) = almost 2,000 additional vehicles per hour in the rush direction. Split those to 1,500 on the Turnpike, the other 500 vehicles by some combination of Rt 1, Rt 130, and Rt 206/27.
Does that sound like a reasonable estimate?