A quick review of what we knew, when:
MID-SUMMER
January: 17,800 passengers, $146,500
February: 24,100 passengers, $220,000
March: 32,900 passengers, $297,300
OCTOBER
Arlington wrote:So here are 5 more reasonable "how are they doing" estimates from passenger data so far:
FORECASTS for CALENDAR YEAR 2018
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5) Better, consider that going from 11 tpdew to 16 tpdew may capture both time-of-day and S-curve (frequency-convenience) growth in Q3 & Q4
74k+106k+180k+250k = 610k = 55% of calendar 2018 forecast
60,000 riders and ~1.2M* revenue for October 2018*
80,660 riders and $1.5M in revenue for November 2018.
So my highest-end forecast from October (which swagged 250k riders for calendar Q4) is only 4% high if they do 100k in December, for a total of 240k for Q4.
January will be really interesting! If they're already doing $1.5m in revs in October, they'll probably be something like $2.1M in January 2019, which is a nice 14x growth in revenue. And ridership could be 120,000, a 6.7x growth vs last year.
Also note that riders "back then" were getting introductory fares, and with a move to "regular fares" (which seem to be, on average, double the intro fares), ridership will have grown 7x, but revenues will have grown 14x (showing that revenue growth is a mix of both ridership growth and a doubling of average fares).
*Extrapolated from press release saying ridership was up 34% since October