Pan Am in 2014

Used to be. As soon as your tail end cleared Viall Ave at XO you're in the 8th notch all the way to Rigby if they keep putting the signals in LOL. That was before black boxes and anyone cared about speeds and the guys in the caboose had a case of beer.

I remember when trains ran Mickyville to Rigby with one crew. Knew some of those hot-rodders!

In another thread CN 9634 alluded to much improved track conditions between Waterville and Portland. I will be very interested to see if this happens.

With Fortress Industries LLC the apparent winning bidder for the entire MM&A,
barring changes in the final decision to be released on Thursday, it would
appear not much will change for PAR, unless Fortress decides to reach new
routing agreements with PAR, which would seem unlikely.

So it would seem, that major changes, if any, for PAR in 2012 will be from
Waterville south, stretching to MA and CT and NY.

Dick H wrote:With Fortress Industries LLC the apparent winning bidder for the entire MM&A,
barring changes in the final decision to be released on Thursday, it would
appear not much will change for PAR, unless Fortress decides to reach new
routing agreements with PAR, which would seem unlikely.

So it would seem, that major changes, if any, for PAR in 2012 will be from
Waterville south, stretching to MA and CT and NY.

Pan Am will have to do something about the far eastern end of the line between Mattawamkeag and Northern Maine Junction. They were obviously looking to get out of this trackage if they were attempting to work a deal with the Eastern Maine Railway to purchase MM&A's Maine based routes as earlier posters predicted. The Maine Central could work out a haulage agreement with the new railroad and the EMRY between Northern Maine Junction and Mattawamkeag as an option to close the line. If they have to stay the course on the line to Mattawamkeag, ultimately, Irving and other customers in the Maritimes will be looking for some kind of improvements to service, especially if Fortress gets the line to Montreal improved. This is in addition to the work required to bring the Royal Junction to Waterville portion of the Freight Main Line up to 25MPH, the completion of the work on the Conn River for Amtrak, the 1500' extension of the track in Portland to serve Eimship container services, any work that Norfolk Southern is looking to complete on Pan Am Southern along with any other required improvements.

Pan Am and NBSR subsidiary, Eastern Maine Railway, jointly bid on the Maine portion of the MMA lot, however their bid was not approved. If that had happened, Old Town to Lincoln would have been abandoned, as would the Moosehead Sub of the MMA.

Story here: http://bangordailynews.com/2014/01/21/b ... ys-assets/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Fortress still owns Florida East Coast. I have no idea how that railroad is run.

newpylong wrote:Fortress still owns Florida East Coast. I have no idea how that railroad is run.

Pretty well from what I understand, but they have some significant advantages. The intermodal market is prime, as they can move bulk into the Miami area, and truckers are all over it, because it saves them a serious backhaul empty. They also have a really solid aggregates business, being its Florida home of "everbody gets a condo," and also of about 0 in the way of grades. Used to be a scheduled railroad, things got done when theysaid they would. Like a mini-CN, a lot of the management at FEC had CN/IC experience. Don't know about current management, but they have enough cash to throw some at a hsr project in south Florida.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, Fortress obviously has the experience but its a rough environment, one that has claimed 3 railroads in 20 years. Certainly hope that they will do okay, they have an advantage over the 3 previous owners, size and cash. Will hopefully allow them to invest in the MMA to make the necessary improvements to make it work.

KSmitty wrote:It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, Fortress obviously has the experience but its a rough environment, one that has claimed 3 railroads in 20 years. Certainly hope that they will do okay, they have an advantage over the 3 previous owners, size and cash. Will hopefully allow them to invest in the MMA to make the necessary improvements to make it work.

In terms of how this affects PAR this could have some very interesting consequences. First and foremost I don't think any of us have seen Northern Maine Junction as a potential source of major new interchange traffic. But there is always the off chance that exactly this scenario could play out especially if by some miracle Fortress invests in MMA lines and they are able to generate major new traffic volumes. I'm not saying its likely at all, just very interesting to think of what PAR would have to do to manage new traffic coming from the north instead of the south.

On a different note I've been thinking occasionally about this thread topic and I think the definitive answer is "a year of growth". PAR is going to see a lot of growth in 2014 and if ever we've wondered what the Maine Central looked like when it was in growth mode this would probably be it. New traffic coming online, more track projects than available labor can handle and new motive power being brought in.

Obviously PAR doesn't buy their power new from the factory but they nonetheless are expanding and growing their business. I think many of the stresses they face today would be very familiar to retired Maine Central or Boston & Maine managers who ran the railroads in the 50's, 60's and 70's.

I wonder if PAR could be hurt by a rebuilt MMA. Could traffic out of NB going to PAR be routed MMA instead?

Theoretically yes, but even as slow as Pan Am might be to transit a car, going through Quebec to go south to CSXT or NS would be more expensive, involve more railroads, and could be slower.

pnolette wrote:I wonder if PAR could be hurt by a rebuilt MMA. Could traffic out of NB going to PAR be routed MMA instead?

Pan Am shouldn't see much decline in business, big money makers on the MM&A were autos (which have gone CN because PAR doesnt have clearance) and LP, which hasn't really been moving into the SOM in much volume (evidenced in the LP shortage in state right now).

The big question, traffic wise, will be MNR loads, mostly finished lumber going west. Losing that won't be enough to bankrupt Pan Am, but it would be a noticeable drop in traffic. And as Newpy said, an Irving/PAR/NS or CSX routing involves less railroads and less miles than an Irving/MM&A/CP/CSX or NS routing and should be competitively priced.

KSmitty wrote:

pnolette wrote:I wonder if PAR could be hurt by a rebuilt MMA. Could traffic out of NB going to PAR be routed MMA instead?

Pan Am shouldn't see much decline in business, big money makers on the MM&A were autos (which have gone CN because PAR doesnt have clearance) and LP, which hasn't really been moving into the SOM in much volume (evidenced in the LP shortage in state right now).

The big question, traffic wise, will be MNR loads, mostly finished lumber going west. Losing that won't be enough to bankrupt Pan Am, but it would be a noticeable drop in traffic. And as Newpy said, an Irving/PAR/NS or CSX routing involves less railroads and less miles than an Irving/MM&A/CP/CSX or NS routing and should be competitively priced.

If Fortress retains marketing agreements with VRS/NECR to reach the CSX gateway via Vermont, they could make it more competitive. This is what kept stuff from northern Maine going CSX through the Vermont gateway. I would think since VRS picked up that line they are looking to do something there. Pre derailment, traffic was pretty decent on that line.

Guess who has overhead rights on the Conn River still and would still get a piece of that traffic too?

pnolette wrote:I wonder if PAR could be hurt by a rebuilt MMA. Could traffic out of NB going to PAR be routed MMA instead?

As far as I'm concerned its PAR's traffic to lose right now. The key point to your statement is a "rebuilt" MMA. How much Fortress is able to accomplish this work season is unknown, however how much PAR is willing spend to increase transit times in D1 will most likely pail in comparison. One other important factor that has not been mentioned is the NBSR/CN agreement which expires in 2022. While the particulars are not public knowledge, at least one train a day both ways goes over CN. CSX and NBSR have their marketing geniuses on the remaining traffic, leaving scraps for a new Moosehead operator. Any JDI subsidiary has been very shrewd and highly successful in playing different modes off of each other for the most cost effective transportation method, so if I were PAR, I would sharpen that pencil and watch out for the new guys on the block who have nothing to lose to fill trains across Maine.