Electrification is only justifiable when there is an intensive service of trains to use it.
Surely the exact break-even point is determined by the relative prices of diesel and electricity (and for that matter the price of wiring), and also by the relative cost, and fuel efficiency, of diesel vs. electric locomotives at the desired speeds?....
All those factors are changing.
There are 'incremental' or system-compatibility issues too. Suppose, for instance, VRE decides to electrify (which they probably should). Then it starts to be tempting (if the capital budget is there) to electrify to Richmond, for a more intensive and faster Northeast Regional service which can run through to New York without having to switch engines or use dual-modes....
And then it becomes tempting to electrify the SEHSR corridor to Raleigh, so that speeds can be brought way, way up. (since, after all, it's already electrified the rest of the way to DC) and then once all *that* is done, electrifying the NCRR starts to seem plausible.
I agree that 5 trains a day doesn't seem like enough to justify electrification under any circumstances, but I think under some circumstances (extension of existing electrified system, high speeds wanted, high price of diesel relative to electricity) 1 per hour is a rather higher bar than necessary.