Discussion related to commuter rail and transit operators in California past and present including Los Angeles Metrolink and Metro Subway and Light Rail, San Diego Coaster, Sprinter and MTS Trolley, Altamont Commuter Express (Stockton), Caltrain and MUNI (San Francisco), Sacramento RTD Light Rail, and others...

Moderator: lensovet

  by george matthews
 
Funny, how I recall that during the mid 70's, Mr. Vranich was a mid-level employee within Amtrak's Public Affairs department. Mr. Cox's career has been with "think tanks" not exactly known for their seeing much need of passenger rail.
What is your point?
  by David Benton
 
why are we getting all the anti hsr op pieces ? . I'm sure there is just as many pro articles out there .Can we have someone we can take seriously , rather than the discredited Vranich ?
  by lpetrich
 
There are some pro ones, like Keeping faith with California's bullet train - latimes.com

Reported by Robert Cruickshank in California High Speed Rail Blog » Yet Another Strong Defense of HSR From the LA Times Editorial Board -- I could look for other ones that he mentions.

Joseph Vranich is an odd case. His book Supertrains got me interested in high-speed rail back in the mid 1990's, but despite HSR being much expanded since the publication of that book, he does not seem to be advertising how vindicated his book has been.
  by Jeff Smith
 
David Benton wrote:why are we getting all the anti hsr op pieces ? . I'm sure there is just as many pro articles out there .Can we have someone we can take seriously , rather than the discredited Vranich ?
That's a fair request. The problem, based on my observation, is that the articles are running con to pro about 9 to 1 right now. Everyone loves a bandwagon. And we all tend to post the articles that reflect our viewpoint as well.

So, rebut away! :-D
  by kaitoku
 
That is an awesome point. I can venture several guesses as to why the cost is so high, but I'll venture that the biggest reason is it's in California. A competing reason could be because the feds are involved.
Can't resist the favorite sport of bagging on California, eh? Fact is, building any rail infrastructure is more expensive in the U.S. as a whole than in Europe or Asia- corruption/cronyism in contracting and local government is a big reason. You may have a point about the Federal Govt. though. I would remedy that by first reforming the FRA.
  by kaitoku
 
CEO of CA High Speed Rail Authority resigns:
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The head of the authority charged with building high-speed rail in California plans to resign, adding another question mark to a project whose estimated cost more than doubled in November.

Roelof van Ark, chief executive officer of the California High-Speed Rail Authority since June 2010, will step down in about two months, Rachel Wall, the authority’s spokeswoman, said by e-mail.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... -says.html
  by Jeff Smith
 
In the spirit of even-handedness, some good news? Disclaimer: Business Wire is a Berkshire Hathaway company (i.e. Warren Buffet and BNSF).

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch- ... 2012-01-12
NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Fitch believes that U.S. high speed rail (HSR) networks and other regional rail solutions are likely to proceed despite the difficulties faced by proposed projects in California and Florida. We expect, over time, options such as HSR to become a necessary part of the modern transportation network. However, financing and implementation measures should reflect the size and scope of such undertakings.

...

Over the short term, the HSR project in California is likely to struggle under the weight of state cuts and a voting public that will continue to feel the effects of the economic downturn, as did Florida. We believe that good ideas are being proposed in many parts of the country, but they will face significant difficulties absent thoughtful long-term planning and recognition of the true life cycle costs of these projects.
  by lpetrich
 
Capitol Alert: Jerry Brown vows to push forward with high-speed rail
"We're pushing forward," Brown said. "We're going to build, but we're not going to be stupid ... We're going to be very careful and build incrementally as we go."

He said, "A lot of people want to turn off the lights. I'm not one of them. We're going to build, we're going to invest, and California is going to stay up among the great states and the great political jurisdictions of the world."
So he's not giving up. He promises something big in his State of the State address next week.
  by Passenger
 
Bravo. Somebody hasn't been paid enough yet.
  by amtrakowitz
 
kaitoku wrote:
That is an awesome point. I can venture several guesses as to why the cost is so high, but I'll venture that the biggest reason is it's in California. A competing reason could be because the feds are involved.
Can't resist the favorite sport of bagging on California, eh? Fact is, building any rail infrastructure is more expensive in the U.S. as a whole than in Europe or Asia— corruption/cronyism in contracting and local government is a big reason. You may have a point about the Federal Govt. though. I would remedy that by first reforming the FRA.
No, that's not a blanket fact that applies to the US as a whole. Projects like the Portland Streetcar have been built with costs in a very reasonable range. There is no shortage of corruption and cronyism in government in Europe or Asia; perhaps due to centralization there is even more...and it may be that they have hidden their costs better due to such corruption.
  by lpetrich
 
Jerry Brown has indeed delivered his State of the State speech: California High Speed Rail Blog » Governor Jerry Brown Backs High Speed Rail In State of the State Speech

He came out strong, asking if California is really in decline. He stated that the project is within weeks of releasing a revised business plan that will enable initial construction before the end of this year. He noted that expanding highways and airports and building additional runways would be even more expensive and run into even more opposition. He also noted how various people dismissed earlier projects as impossibilities, like the Central Valley Water Project, the Interstate Highway System, BART, and the Suez Canal.

So there's a chance that the CA HSR project will dodge the bullet of last-minute cancellation, the bullet that had hit projects in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.
  by gprimr1
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-worst- ... 59548.html

Fair Use Quote

"US Labor statistics ranks Merced, Fresno, Modesto and Stockton as the top 4 worst places to find employment in the USA. "

This is very worrysome. If unemployment is that high; are ridership numbers really going to be anywhere near decent?
  by george matthews
 
gprimr1 wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-worst- ... 59548.html

Fair Use Quote

"US Labor statistics ranks Merced, Fresno, Modesto and Stockton; 4 key cities on the proposed HSR system as the top 4 worst places to find employment. "
Before the TGV came to Lille - rustbelt city in northern France - it was dying. No longer. the rail connection has revitalised it.
  by Jeff Smith
 
The Right Idea in the Wrong Place

From the "room for debate" section of the "newspaper of record" New York Times. Brief, fair-use quote from a non-anti-HSR publication. Interesting takes off this page, it looks like much good reading.
The proposed high-speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco is unlikely to meet that test. The estimates of costs recently doubled, to almost $100 billion, and it may ultimately cost much more. Research by the Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg shows that costs are underestimated for rail projects by about 45 percent on average, the most of all types of transport projects. High-speed rail could become California's Big Dig. Moreover, ridership — and thus revenue — is often overstated.
More positive stuff about HSR; just not this corridor.
  by george matthews
 
Research by the Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg shows that costs are underestimated for rail projects by about 45 percent on average, the most of all types of transport projects. High-speed rail could become California's Big Dig. Moreover, ridership — and thus revenue — is often overstated.
HS1 (Channel Tunnel Rail Link) was built on time and on budget, as far as I know.

Numerous rail projects have exceeded the estimates of usage - in fact I think the majority of new rail projects "surprise" the pundits by how popular they turn out to be. One exception of course is the Channel Tunnel itself where the estimates for revenue and usage turned out to be pure fiction, or based on the fantasy that the ferries would simply disappear. The foolish investors lost their money (me, for example). It's too late to try to take the promoters to court as they are mostly dead now.
  • 1
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 50