Gilbert B Norman wrote:Station Aficionado wrote:I wonder how Amtrak (and all intercity travel) will fair if the "new normal" is an extended (multiyear) period of little or no growth and high unemployment.
Mr. Afficiando, that is quite a point.
Likely such involves societal changes that will go far beyond any "Main Street discovery of (Coach) train travel' as an inexpensive "passably comfortable" (beats Greyhound and "drive straight through Marathons'), but for openers, if possible, review this material appearing in Today's Wall Street Journal:
.....
It would appear that there is not quite the profligate urge to spend...spend ...spend as was prevalent through the '90's and '00's. No longer is the home a piggy-bank making 10% of its market value available each year as some kind of ATM machine. This past Xmas I noted a "McMansionite' neighbor family loading up the Chevy Suburban, not just for the drive to O'Hare, but rather 'to Grandmother's house we go' near Phila (Exton). Any of their past trips, Holidays, Spring Break, Summer, had always been of the "fly and rent' varietal (he's working again but was "out' for a while).
But will such a societal change, if in fact there is one, of seeking 'the simple life' translate to the 'fly and rent" market segment making their way to CUS, and sitting down in their Coach seats for an experience that to a non-fan could only be considered an endurance contest (so is air travel, but that's a half-day "over and done")? Will same apply to the 'we always drive' segment?
It will be interesting to hear some views, as i have never had grounding in Sociology (other than 3hrs as a 'Liberal Studies' elective) to initiate an intelligent discussion of this topic that, incidentally, I think is quite "on-topic' around here.
There are many parts to the story of what's happening with our economy, and it's not wholly clear to me how they will impact Amtrak. To narrow the focus a bit, a big part of our problem is that we (both as a country and individually) have lived beyond our means for a number of years. We've had discussion about the future of federal and state spending, and the possible ramifications for Amtrak. As Mr. Norman suggests, it may be useful to think about changes in personal behavior and spending.
Large numbers of people are trying to dig out from a mountain of debt and repair their personal balance sheets. At the same time, unemployment is incredibly high. While the "headline" number (i.e., those with no job, but actively seeking employment) is just under 10%, the broader measure of unemployment (which also includes those without jobs who have become discouraged and stopped looking for employment, and those working part-time who are seeking full-time work) is now over 17%. I see little indication that any of this will change anytime soon. Thus, I suspect for many, the new-found frugality may be here to stay (though the human animal can be quite irrational).
What does this portend for Amtrak? Here, I think we need to focus on the non-business traveler--ie, someone traveling for pleasure or medical treatment or some other reason not related to their employment. Many, I think, will be looking for cheaper alternatives. In the NEC, Amtrak coach fares, while down, are still relatively high (at least in comparison with bus services). I don't want to get into a discussion of the relative merits of train or bus (personally, I prefer avoiding the possibility of sitting for hours on the Jersey Turnpike). Looking at this on just a price basis, however, I suspect the "new normal" could be a small negative for coach travel on the regionals. More people will elect not to travel and, for those who do travel, more will be looking for the best deal. This may be offset by business travelers downgrading from Acela to the regionals (I wonder what the long-term "hit" to Acela from the downturn will be).
As for the non-NEC trains, I think you have to differentiate between sleeping car and coach travel. The sleepers tend (and I know this is an overgeneralization) to be populated by the well-heeled enjoying a land cruise. These folks are relatively more insulated from the slings and arrows of outrageous economic fortune, and I suspect there won't be much of an impact. At the least, I have seen no indication that there will be plenty of discounted sleeper space available on the western superliners this summer.
With regard to coach travel outside the NEC, Amtrak fares are often dirt cheap. Amtrak could be an appealing choice for many looking for less expensive travel options (and would be more willing to put up with the, shall we say, more unpleasant aspects that sometime accrue to Amtrak travel). Thus, as we have seen so far, the situation could be a boon to travel on Amtrak outside the NEC. One cautionary note is that many of the low coach fares are procured by generous support of state governments. With the states strained financially, some of that support may be cut back. I suspect this will play out various ways in different stays. While some states may cut back, others may rank passenger rail high on their priority list, and maintain their support.
Those, in any event are my unlearned thoughts. I'd be interested to hear other views.
