Amtrak Florida Service

I can only reiterate that, at such time that a new Administration or Congress, inaugurates a "kill Amtrak" initiative (and it WILL happen, regardless of whether Mr. M or Mr. O is sitting in the Oval Office come Jan 21), the Meteor 97-98 is in danger of becoming space-dust.

Whether or not Meteor has stronger ridership than 91-92 Star is irrelevant; "one a day" seems to be the long standing level of service on any LD route ("two a day" prevailed Chi-LA during the Simmer 1972 - and that was that) save the East Coast/Florida. This means that the "Silver Service" is a target for pruning.

As I noted earlier, the Meteor could be killed without any "180 Day Notice" under ARAA '97 as there is other service (Palmetto 89-90) over the route. Amtrak also gained experience in operating a Supertrain 91-92 during 2005 ostensibly account "CSX A-Line trackwork'. Of course what was overlooked is that 'back in our day" Ms. Bly and myself can recall first hand every Meteor, Champ, and Special was a Supertrain.

Starting with the Carter Cuts, "powers that be' have recognized that the LD system is a political necessity, or as I have noted in the past the catalyst for Federal funding of any passenger rail. But as far as proving meaningful to a region's passenger transportation needs, that had ceased long before A-Day - likely during, save select markets, the '50's.

Some here, as well as advocacy groups, have been suggesting that Amtrak is deliberately killing the Florida business. Maybe so, but possibly there must be recognition that the market that filled up 16 Pullman (no coaches) Florida Specials now look "down from on high" as the ridership deteriorates. I highly doubt if $5/ga (my last fill up on May 15 was $4.219) is going to put many, if any, more faces in the window of an A-II. If economies need be made, the family may just "wave at Pedro" (whoops, a large "services" complex @ Dillon SC) and drive on through, as well as 'staying on the perimeter" in Kissimmee, rather than within The Kingdom.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:I can only reiterate that, at such time that a new Administration or Congress, inaugurates a "kill Amtrak" initiative (and it WILL happen, regardless of whether Mr. M or Mr. O is sitting in the Oval Office come Jan 21), the Meteor 97-98 is in danger of becoming space-dust.

...

...I highly doubt if $5/ga (my last fill up on May 15 was $4.219) is going to put many, if any, more faces in the window of an A-II. If economies need be made, the family may just "wave at Pedro" (whoops, a large "services" complex @ Dillon SC) and drive on through, as well as 'staying on the perimeter" in Kissimmee, rather than within The Kingdom.

I'm not so sure about those assessments. I mean no disrespect to Mr. Norman, who has forgotten more about the railroad business than I'll ever know, but I think the political and economic climate for passenger rail is changing in the US. Both parties' presidential candidates agree, at least in principle, that global warming is a problem. In the past few years there has been increasing concern that our heavy imports of oil have been helping to fund some very unpleasant people overseas. And of course gasoline has broken the $4 barrier in many parts of the country now.

These are starting to have an effect--I'm seeing more news stories with title such as "High Gas Prices Send People To The Tracks:"
http://www.nbc17.com/midatlantic/ncn/ne ... -0011.html

One final factor working in Amtrak's favor is, I think, cultural. Most of its passengers these days weren't around before A-day and no longer associate rail with the dirty, decaying death-spiral service of the 60s or with long hot rides during their WWII service. Flying is no longer viewed as modern or futuristic, but as a grueling police-state ordeal. News stories about Amtrak these days are more likely to focus on its convenience and fuel efficiency than to criticize it as a tax-draining boondoggle.

So I think the opportunity is there if Amtrak can find a way to lobby for the resources to take advantage. Inter-Florida fares are cheap enough that I think Amtrak might be able to fill an extra train a day just from Jax to Miami. Given enough equipment (which I think is the real bottleneck), extra sleeper service NY-MIA could also work--I've started poking around to look at options for our trip to FL this winter to visit my parents and discovered that sleeper service is cost-competitive with airfare for our trip! Sure, it takes longer, but that's a day of eating, relaxing, reading, and sleeping to decompress each way. There may not be enough people like us to fill a 16 Pullman special, but judging how full the sleepers are in the winter, I think there's room to add some capacity.

After all, this skeletal LD network is about the worst way to run things--if you're going to go to the expense of maintaining station and maintenance staffs all over the country, you might as well run enough trains to keep them busy!

Mr. RPF, even if I cannot accept the premise that high cost fuel will fill up Amtrak LD trains with vacation travelers such as it IS filling up mass transit systems and Amtrak Corridor operations, I certainly note with great respect the maturity with which you have set forth your thoughts.

I'm certain that if the "three a day" full service (Sleeper Diner Lounge) NY-Mia that prevailed until about 2002 were to return, and if 'two a day' became the standard on other LD routes, more passengers would show up and ride. But of course, given my Class I background before my "second career" began (private practice CPA) during 1982, I cannot overlook how dramatically railroad freight traffic has grown since I left the industry and as a result how much a greater burden handling additional LD's would place on scarce industry resources.

But back to our East Coast-Florida topic; the decisions made by CSX to drastically reduce capacity can only be considered "bonehead' - and I'm not addressing passenger service per se. John Snow, in my estimation, cannot be thought of as a "Man who loved trains'. Becoming CEO of a Class I was simply a stepping stone at which to hone his political skills for the next challenge. OK, I guess it is a case of "Snowman 1, Railroad industry 0". Yes, there are proposals to restore at taxpayer expense the capacity that Mr. Snow and his Court Jesters in their collective wisdom deemed was unnecessary to handle any class of traffic. But as I've often noted around here, if such a publicly funded restoration were to be made primarily to support passenger service, those trains would certainly become the most expensive LD trains in the world if the capacity improvements were to be allocated in entirety against them. Acquiring equipment to again operate three or more Supertrains (a handy term for the 5 Sleeper, 5 Coach, plus ancillary non-revenue cars 91-92 of Summer 2005) would be the least of it.

I think one, large overnight supertrain that connects a new, 4-7 times a day inter city florida service probably makes the best use of scarce resources. It woudl be nice if corridors were JAX-Tampa-Miami as well as the Florida East Coast but regular Tampa-Miami and JAX-Tampa and/or JAX Miami would be a good start.

Has anyone got any proof that there are any widesacale moves in congress to kill off Amtrak ?. now or in the future .We seem to be discounting alot of ideas on this premise , which seems unlikely to me , given the future fuel / emiisions scenario , and the bills been promoted to increase funding for Amtrak / high speed rail .

Amtrak does not have "scarce resources" in terms of equipment to run its current Florida service, or even the Florida serivce it had until 2002 or discontinuance of the Silver Palm. It has scarce resources in terms of money to keep the system running, but that's applcable to the company in general.

David Benton wrote:Has anyone got any proof that there are any widesacale moves in congress to kill off Amtrak ?. now or in the future

None at this time, Mr. Benton, but then I think outgoing Presidents look for some kind of "legacy building" action for which hopefully they may achieve some success. Case in point; Bush clearly wants to be identified with a Middle East peace initiative, so did Clinton (not very successful).

"I killed Amtrak" is not exactly "legacy building". It is something one would consider, as did Bush with respect to LD's, when a second term is assured.

But if the history of now six administrations that have followed since the Nixon, every one of them, save possibly Ford, had an initiative of one degree or another to curtail the scope of Amtrak.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:I can only reiterate that, at such time that a new Administration or Congress, inaugurates a "kill Amtrak" initiative (and it WILL happen, regardless of whether Mr. M or Mr. O is sitting in the Oval Office come Jan 21), the Meteor 97-98 is in danger of becoming space-dust.

Whether or not Meteor has stronger ridership than 91-92 Star is irrelevant; "one a day" seems to be the long standing level of service on any LD route ("two a day" prevailed Chi-LA during the Simmer 1972 - and that was that) save the East Coast/Florida. This means that the "Silver Service" is a target for pruning.

As I noted earlier, the Meteor could be killed without any "180 Day Notice" under ARAA '97 as there is other service (Palmetto 89-90) over the route. Amtrak also gained experience in operating a Supertrain 91-92 during 2005 ostensibly account "CSX A-Line trackwork'. Of course what was overlooked is that 'back in our day" Ms. Bly and myself can recall first hand every Meteor, Champ, and Special was a Supertrain.

Starting with the Carter Cuts, "powers that be' have recognized that the LD system is a political necessity, or as I have noted in the past the catalyst for Federal funding of any passenger rail. But as far as proving meaningful to a region's passenger transportation needs, that had ceased long before A-Day - likely during, save select markets, the '50's.

Some here, as well as advocacy groups, have been suggesting that Amtrak is deliberately killing the Florida business. Maybe so, but possibly there must be recognition that the market that filled up 16 Pullman (no coaches) Florida Specials now look "down from on high" as the ridership deteriorates. I highly doubt if $5/ga (my last fill up on May 15 was $4.219) is going to put many, if any, more faces in the window of an A-II. If economies need be made, the family may just "wave at Pedro" (whoops, a large "services" complex @ Dillon SC) and drive on through, as well as 'staying on the perimeter" in Kissimmee, rather than within The Kingdom.

I am in basic disagreement with this one. There is an obvious market
here in Florida for more and not less service. People are absolutely fed
up with the problems associated with flying. We had more people going
back to the north east by train this year than before and I think there is
a good possibility that this will increase again next year as well. What I
think is really needed is corridor trains within Florida. The LD service
needs to change as well. If we ever get corridor trains, then a New York
train out of Miami and another out of Tampa would probably work as
long as there were decent connections from and to at Jacksonville.
With McCain we won't get anything and with Obama we might or might
not get something. One thing that might help is that Obama is from a
state that believes in corridor type passenger trains. Biggest problem in
Florida is the state government which is better at doing nothing than in
doing something.
Noel Weaver

Noel Weaver wrote:
I am in basic disagreement with this one. There is an obvious market
here in Florida for more and not less service. People are absolutely fed
up with the problems associated with flying. We had more people going
back to the north east by train this year than before and I think there is
a good possibility that this will increase again next year as well. What I
think is really needed is corridor trains within Florida. The LD service
needs to change as well. If we ever get corridor trains, then a New York
train out of Miami and another out of Tampa would probably work as
long as there were decent connections from and to at Jacksonville.
With McCain we won't get anything and with Obama we might or might
not get something. One thing that might help is that Obama is from a
state that believes in corridor type passenger trains. Biggest problem in
Florida is the state government which is better at doing nothing than in
doing something.
Noel Weaver

The roads are clogged with traffic making even bus travel tedious and slow. A competing rail service would attract people frustrated by the slow traffic - what is called "unsatisfied demand". There is also no control over where developers put up suburban housing developments and strip malls, all of which tend to increase road traffic, with no possibility of providing public transport. Fortunately, I suppose, these developments will be put on hold as the prices of existing houses fall.

From my west coast perspective, it looks like Amtrak's east coast operations ignore most of the population between DC and Florida. There's the Carolinian and the Palmetto, but everything else for Andy, Opie and Aunt Bea is a 2AM train. But the reality is that Mayberry has grown up. It's got shopping malls, traffic problems and its citizens might use trains that arrived and departed during waking hours. There also is the problem that after years of promoting itself as a low-tax, low-cost-of-doing-business region, the south is full of voters who aren't going to approve of higher fees and taxes to pay for needed water projects, roads or heaven forbid--railroads! Good luck.

I see your point, Mr. Vincent; the Southeast lines simply do not connect "where the people are'. The ACL was first to be built, and in the interest of avoiding any natural obstacles, stuck to the coastal plain - and missed where the subsequent population growth was lain. The "Johnny come lately' Seaboard at least connected Raleigh and Columbia with 'the world' but of course had a less favorable line (even though they 'ran like the devil' and were almost speed competitive with the ACL).

But the region's population growth has clearly established itself around the research and educational traingle of Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham. A routing using the SRY(NS) to Atlanta, then traveling over the CofG(NS) to Savannah would capture more population than either existing routing.

The problem is that, even though tracks are there, some have not seen a passenger train since A-Day Eve.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:I see your point, Mr. Vincent; the Southeast lines simply do not connect "where the people are'. The ACL was first to be built, and in the interest of avoiding any natural obstacles, stuck to the coastal plain - and missed where the subsequent population growth was lain. The "Johnny come lately' Seaboard at least connected Raleigh and Columbia with 'the world' but of course had a less favorable line (even though they 'ran like the devil' and were almost speed competitive with the ACL).

But the region's population growth has clearly established itself around the research and educational traingle of Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham. A routing using the SRY(NS) to Atlanta, then traveling over the CofG(NS) to Savannah would capture more population than either existing routing.

The problem is that, even though tracks are there, some have not seen a passenger train since A-Day Eve.

This would be like lots of the local buses here in Fort Lauderdale operate
when they go from point A to point B by the way of points X, Y and Z and
maybe even more. It takes "forever" to get anyplace and it would take
the train "forever" to get from New York and Washington to Florida using
the Southern etc.
Noel Weaver

The point has been made that the majority of the New York to Florida traffic might be traveling at 35,000 feet high forever, but what about the people in Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, Charleston, Savannah--the intermediate cities that have grown up since 1971? Shouldn't Amtrak and the state governments be looking at providing those people with convenient service (which means trains that operate mostly during waking hours) to both Florida and the NEC?

They should, but only North Carolina has shown any inclination to actually put their money where their mouth is. (Why did they buy their own cars anyway -- was this before the surplus Amfleets started piling up?)

If we ever get 80-20 matching, then I suspect many handsitters would suddenly become enthusiastic backers of passenger rail.

Well, I started this whole thread, so I probably shouldn't post again, but I'd like to respond to the comments about trains passing through, for example, North Carolina in the middle of the night.

Ten years ago I was asked to review Amtrak's testimony before Congress. Part of it consisted of state-by-state ridership numbers. Despite the nighttime passage of all Amtrak trains save the Palmetto and the Carolinian, North Carolina had more boardings/alightings than Ohio (a much larger state!). I'm sure that's still true, because of course ALL Amtrak trains through Ohio run at night.

Moral of the story: people do ride trains if they are there to ride, on reasonably competitive schedules at reasonable times of day, and run reliably.

And that sentence condemns most of Amtrak's LD network to oblivion.

I'm quite sure the sort of decline that surprised me with the Florida trains is happening on all Amtrak's LD routes. Face it, everyone: the LDs are dying. Now it's just a matter of time.