Will They Ever Return?

Yeah, that's just a technicality because this isn't just a New York only issue.

I've lived and worked in New York. I understand that New Yorkers think they are the center of the universe.

But the issue they are facing here is not unique nor are they the only large city agencies in the country that will have to figure this out.

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I don't know who the center of the universe is, but the 50% numbers being cited for Metra are simply not relevant here. Weekend ridership is regularly above pre-pandemic levels. Tu-Th ridership is consistently hovering around 70-75%.

Will they return? It doesn't really matter. 75% of 2019 ridership is approximately where ridership was a decade ago. Were transit agencies in the NYC metro on the verge of failing a decade ago due to "low" ridership? I don't think so.

No, but wages aren't at 2013 levels, nor are expenses. When expenses are up 10-20% and ridership is down 10-40%, something has to give. You can't keep taxing your way out of a growing expenses vs income gap.

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eolesen wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:05 am My downtown Chicago headquartered company just bought a second suburban office building that will be almost exclusively hoteling space. At 205,000 feet of office space, its equal to four floors at Willis, except it also has 1500 parking spaces. Its perfect for those teams who have people living in the suburbs and need face time one or two days a week...

It's nowhere near a bus route to a Metra station, either...

I expect this will become the primary model. Some of it will be caused by government partnering with certain developers to revamp Penn Station and create a new central business district. Isn't this going to force disadvantaged property owners to react? It seems easier for such property owners to purchase / partner with suburban office space to offer their lessee a combined city & suburban office space. Hospital and department stores have taken this approach to be closer to their customers; wouldn't property owners / businesses also benefit by making it easier for their employees to get to a common workspace.

Universities and Hospitals have their own transportation system, which these property owners / businesses could replicate. Many business already offer transport-related benefits with free car service for those that leave late, pay for business / 1st class air fares to keep their employees away from the riff-raff, etc. Therefore, shuttling employees between offices where they can continue to work seems like a win-win. There are posts on private bus services replacing commuter bus and an Amtrak competitor with anti-motion seating so it seems feasible that business grade of bus can provide a better solution that the mix of public transit and individuals driving into a congested city.

Before mobility office equipment, businesses were opening satellite offices where their suburban employees had access to hard-wired computer networks and PBX phone system. As this technology evolved, WFH started and Covid proved that vast majority of office workers can be as productive out of the office. With a global economy, the office hours extend well beyond the 9-5 workday. Employers being quite flexible helps as many employees need personal time as 9-5 hours exists for their children and their errands, such as dry cleaning, dentist, doctor, sudden changes in school schedules, etc. With suburban offices, activities that would have resulted in full day off or emergency need to leave in a downtown office become much less disruptive.

For public transit providers, the question is if they can still provide a viable solution for office workers. The commuting work week now only has 2-3 busy days. Without the former monthly commuters prepaying for the service levels, how can public transit fund it with a much diminished fare-box recovery from those earning more than non-commuters? Moreover, the office worker can be productive from their modern vehicle with a great speakerphone and driver-assist safety warnings. How many are scheduling afternoon conference calls to leave the downtown office early and have added to increase of road traffic?

sandcastle wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:23 am For public transit providers, the question is if they can still provide a viable solution for office workers. The commuting work week now only has 2-3 busy days. Without the former monthly commuters prepaying for the service levels, how can public transit fund it with a much diminished fare-box recovery from those earning more than non-commuters?

Regarding Mr. Sandcastle's captioned thought, the day of reckoning will soon be at hand for many a rail commuter agency.

The Federal subsidies passed out during COVID are running their course. When the relief funds were enacted, the assumption was that once COVID was over, ridership would return to normal levels.

Well, COVID is over, and owing to the business patterns such as five days at the desk (and pointless meetings) has changed. Maybe when the economy takes a significant downturn, bosses can lay down the law and impose RTO5X, but the longer that day is deferred, the harder it will be to enforce on the troops.

The business pattern of pointless meetings has changed for the worse -- I now have far more meetings than I used to (because a 10 minute conversation at someone's desk is now a 1/2 hour meeting), and get less done (but hey, the computer is locked less then it used to be, so I must be more productive!)

Amtrak is removing free ticket changes from all but their most expensive fares.

Seems the ridership is high enough that they can get away with doing that.

Or.... someone did the math and figured out how much they've been losing by giving away changes.

Airlines probably won't be far behind.

??

airlines did this years ago. they "removed" all change fees on regular fares, while keeping change restrictions to saver/basic economy fares only. as a result, if you want a non-basic economy fare, you end up paying for the "benefit" of being able to change the ticket even if you have no need to do so.

Amtrak is literally just following in their footsteps. The only reason you provide free flexibility on all ticket types (something the airlines also did at the peak of the pandemic for basic economy fares) is because people are skittish about committing to plans if they are worried about having to change them and are not willing to pay the higher fare that provides the flexibility. The fact that this flexibility is being removed from the cheaper fares means that Amtrak has figured out that people are now willing to give up that flexibility at the cheaper price point.

What I'm saying is that it wouldn't surprise me to see airlines return to change fees on non-refundable fares which allow changes. There's a certain degree of churn that happens with non-refundable fares being bought speculatively, and changed multiple times. I've seen single tickets rebooked 20+ times.

lensovet wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:56 pm airlines did this years ago. they "removed" all change fees on regular fares, while keeping change restrictions to saver/basic economy fares only. as a result, if you want a non-basic economy fare, you end up paying for the "benefit" of being able to change the ticket even if you have no need to do so.

...unless the airlines goof up.

2007. I'm flying from BWI to Pittsburgh and was weary of Southwest at the time. I book through Expedia for a United flight. I get two calls needing me to rebook my flight, which I do. I then get to the airport and have to rebook AGAIN because of a broken code-share agreement with United's partner, US Air. To this day, if I'm flying on a Dash 8-300 airplane, I'm packing hearing protection on my carry-on... and United's on my "OH HELL NO" list.

But I was never charged for all those changes.

I would expect the same from Amtrak. If I'm to get on a train that gets canceled and I'm rebooked, I should get that change charge waived... or I will be majorly pissed.

First of all.... the only time airlines charge a fee is on changes initiated by the customer. Changes due to a cancelation have never had a fee on reputable airlines.

Second... as someone who has made a living supporting both airlines and agencies, you're blaming the wrong party for your 2007 mishap -- Expedia booked your flights, and you paid Expedia.

If there was a screw up, Expedia is the one who screwed up. Blaming United is like blaming HP because you got bad info from the Best Buy salesman.

When you use a middleman (especially one getting a commission or mark-up), they own the client relationship, not the supplier...

It's no different than if you booked Amtrak thru an agency. This is also why travel agencies are a shrinking presence....

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Wholly concur, Mr. Olesen.

I can recall two fairly recent hotel stays where I was listening to a Manager "going round and round" by phone with someone who "wanted something" - probably over a cancellation. At one such, when it was finally over, and she moved on to me (just checking out), I just said "third party?", to which the Manager just half smiled and scowled.

Even if my Sister "does so all the time" ("I can't be bothered with all those websites"), I will NEVER use a third party. Mr. Wolf's experience is indicative of why - even if the only airline I fly ended up on his "Blacklist".

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:30 am Wholly concur, Mr. Olesen.

I can recall two fairly recent hotel stays where I was listening to a Manager "going round and round" by phone with someone who "wanted something" - probably over a cancellation. At one such, when it was finally over, and she moved on to me (just checking out), I just said "third party?", to which the Manager just half smiled and scowled.

Even if my Sister "does so all the time" ("I can't be bothered with all those websites"), I will NEVER use a third party. Mr. Wolf's experience is indicative of why - even if the only airline I fly ended up on his "Blacklist".

Yeah, I'm definitely going to book through the sites directly next time like I do with Southwest (although BWI is a major Southwest hub). United canceled the flights, Expedia rebooked... but never sent me updated info. US Air's code share barely worked if at all, but US Air recovered the entire trip with a proper rebooking.

Needless to say, United and Expedia are on my blacklist. Never had an issue with Travelocity though, but I probably was lucky then.

I have zero complaints flying United or Southwest, and have about 500K flown miles between the two since 2006, which is when I retired early from American. I've also flown over 1M paid miles on American since retiring, and would be fine never stepping foot on them again.

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