HQ2 - Amtrak "Up For It"?

Gilbert B Norman wrote:[Amtrak] welcomes HQ 1, HQ .5, and .5 to the world:

https://media.amtrak.com/2018/11/amtrak ... -virginia/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well at least we can all agree now that at least HQ Amtrak thinks that Amazon's decision is significant.

I have to say if things really do shape up as planned that Amtrak is potentially the biggest winner after Amazon itself from this process. I can't think of any other company that stands to benefit as much as they do from the specific geographic configuration of this decision.

I don’t know that Amtrak will be the biggest winner, Mr. O’Keefe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_Airline" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Granted, Amtrak is currently (Nov 18, 2018, 10pm EST) selling coach seats for $49 one way for the same round trip pair that Republic wants $155 one way for, but it’s also another two and a half hours between WAS and NYP than between KDCA and KLGA. The extra time waiting in a security line is easily balanced by the extra time riding the 7 or the B60 to the 1-2-3 in New York, and the Red to the Yellow in DC/Arlington.

Two things to note.

1: 75% percent of travel between NYC and DC is done by train.

2: Amazon is going to a second entrance to the metro stop in Crystal City, and the new Potomac Yards stop will have two separate entrances as well, this isn't the usual on the DC Metro.

benboston wrote:Two things to note.
1: 75% percent of travel between NYC and DC is done by train.
2: ....

75% share between trains and planes, that high % share does not consider buses and private owned automobiles using highways.

benboston wrote:2: Amazon is going to a second entrance to the metro stop in Crystal City, and the new Potomac Yards stop will have two separate entrances as well, this isn't the usual on the DC Metro.

For most of the complex, the Pentagon City stop will be at least as close as Crystal City; Potomac Yard’s station will be at the very far end of walking distance.

Mr. Dunham: I noticed that the trail connects the two, but didn’t think it was as simple a walk. Maybe I should start a pedicab service between the two

All: how long until an enterprising bus company starts luxury service Crystal City - Long Island City?

Re: market shares, see here: http://nec-commission.com/app/uploads/2 ... pdf#page=9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When considering the propensity of car trips, one must keep in mind that those car trips are likely being made between suburban points that are (relatively speaking) inaccessible by rail. The real question that must be asked here is downtown-to-downtown market share -- data which I cannot find.

I think what will make/break Amazon-related travel will be where Amazon chooses to place its corporate travel accounts and what quality of subway service is provided at both ends. If Amazon chooses to go big on Delta travel, there's your answer -- DCA to LGA it is. If they engage with Amtrak, then we've got a chance...until you look at the subways. PSNY to LIC is done easily on the E, but the E can be a crowded mess -- and Ubering through the Midtown-Queens crossings is a great way to spend a lot of money on nothing. In Washington, you can do Red to Yellow, but functionality there will be predicated on WMATA getting their service game (esp. during off-peaks) together -- this may be an area where folks will elect to Uber.

Possibly in response to the negative reactions being circulated amongst recognized media regarding locations of HQ2, here is an Opinion piecr from Today's Times, suggesting with a more diversified economy, New York will be the better for it (possibly a knothole in the paywall):

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/16/opin ... -york.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But in case it is not, Fair Use:

..For decades, experts have called for the diversification of the New York City economy. In the wake of postwar deindustrialization, our reliance on Wall Street and the financial industry in general had by the 1990s left our city disproportionately vulnerable to swings in the financial markets. We have experienced significant downturns that today feel like distant memories but could certainly return. I know this from my own experience as director of planning for Manhattan after Sept. 11.

In those heady dark days, few spoke about gentrification or the supposedly ominous specter of new companies entering New York City. To the contrary, many worried that no one would build so much as a Quonset hut in this city again. Darker still were the memories of my older colleagues in city government, who helped rescue us from the nose-dive of the late 1970s, when New York City lost hundreds of thousands of jobs and crime ravaged our most vulnerable neighborhoods.

It is with dismay that I hear the fiercely negative reaction to the announcement that New York City won the Amazon competition to land at least 25,000 jobs and decades of direct and indirect economic growth in Long Island City. The fact that the debate has yielded so much heat and so little light is a sign of how complacent we have become.

There’s always the possibility that Amtrak adds an Arlington, VA stop. It wouldn’t particularly interfere with operations, and would be faster than WMATA even with the engine change. On the other end, the E train from NYP to Court Square-23rd St is as simple a transfer as possible.

andegold wrote:Can LGA even provide non-stop service to Seattle? Aren't their runways too short for planes with the weight of a full fuel tank? While it's easy enough to get to JFK these days via AirTrain it still takes longer to do so. I would think Amtrak would still have the advantage to DC over the air shuttles based on comfort and availability of tables for group discussions while on the move. Amtrak also will have an advantage for last minute travel - don't you need at least a 48 hour advance purchase to be able to take advantage of Pre-Check?

I don't think Amazon employees on an Amazon operated flight would need to go thru Pre-Check. They'd depart from the freighter area, and might not even require screening since it's a private operation.

Also, it's unlikely that everyone traveling is from the same team. My company has two HDQ cities, and will see 50-80 people traveling between the two, but rarely do you see two people from the same department on the same flight unless it is the first flight of the day.

That "Coast to Coast flights do not operate from/to LGA is simply an agreement between the Port Authority and the airlines. Any of the latter day B-737's have the range to fly such and both Runways are of sufficient length.

Defer to Mr. Brown or other pilot around here how much MTOW, if any, must be compromised.

All told, Jeff and his Gulfstream, no problem.

gokeefe wrote:

Gilbert B Norman wrote:[Amtrak] welcomes HQ 1, HQ .5, and .5 to the world:

https://media.amtrak.com/2018/11/amtrak ... -virginia/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well at least we can all agree now that at least HQ Amtrak thinks that Amazon's decision is significant.

I have to say if things really do shape up as planned that Amtrak is potentially the biggest winner after Amazon itself from this process. I can't think of any other company that stands to benefit as much as they do from the specific geographic configuration of this decision.

Have to agree - Amazon's HQs will pretty much be positioned on the NEC (DC, NYC), and they are doing large expansion in Boston's seaport (2k new positions with an option to more than double that). Given that Amtrak has already been able to saturate/corner the market on business travel along the NEC, I don't see why Amazon would be any different in utilizing it as a go between for Boston <=> NYC and NYC<=> DC.

I think one thing we can all agree on - not to much thinking to be done on riding the train HQ1-HQ2. I can't imagine anybody will ride the Builder and Lakeshore/Capital between Seattle and New York or Virginia.

On the other hand, it would be a great way to observe people using Amazon products and services to be crammed on a train for 5 days with them.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:That "Coast to Coast flights do not operate from/to LGA is simply an agreement between the Port Authority and the airlines. Any of the latter day B-737's have the range to fly such and both Runways are of sufficient length.

MTOW shouldn't be a problem even for the Amazon operated freighters (which apparently can accommodate employees in jumpseats...)

Packages tend to be light but bulky -- think of how much air gets sent by Amazon daily with all the packing.... Operationally, Fedex freighters tend to cube out (fill up) on volume before they hit a structural or takeoff limit. Fuel weight becomes the only limitation of concern, and doing LGA/DCA-SEA is well within the range of a modified B767.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:That "Coast to Coast flights do not operate from/to LGA is simply an agreement between the Port Authority and the airlines. Any of the latter day B-737's have the range to fly such and both Runways are of sufficient length.

http://www.flyreagan.com/dca/dca-reagan ... eter-rules

DCA Perimeter Rule:

The Perimeter Rule is a federal regulation established in 1966 when jet aircraft began operating at Reagan National. The initial Perimeter Rule limited non-stop service to/from Reagan National to 650 statute miles, with some exceptions for previously existing service. By the mid-1980s, Congress had expanded Reagan National non-stop service to 1,250 statute miles (49 U.S. Code § 49109). Ultimately, Reagan National serves primarily as a "short-haul" airport while Washington Dulles International Airport serves as the region's "long-haul" growth airport.

Congress must propose and approve federal legislation to allow the U.S. Department of Transportation to issue "beyond-perimeter" exemptions which allows an airline to operate non-stop service to cities outside the perimeter. As a result of recent federal exemptions, non-stop service is now offered between Reagan National and the following cities: Austin, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, San Juan, Seattle and Portland, Ore.

I could find nothing to support my belief that flights were limited by fuel weight. What I did find was this from Wikipedia:

"Also in 1984, to further combat overcrowding at LGA, the Port Authority instituted a Sunday-thru-Friday "perimeter rule" banning nonstop flights from LaGuardia to cities more than 1,500 miles (2,400 km) away; at the time, Denver was the only such city with nonstop flights, and it became the only exception to the rule. (In 1986 Western Airlines hoped to fly 737-300s nonstop to Salt Lake City and unsuccessfully challenged the rule in federal court)."

St Louis and Denver certainly appear to be the furthest destinations served.

My comments regarding the use of Pre-Check etc were obviously not aimed at the Seattle flights as there is no way that Amtrak will compete for the Seattle business. If Amazon were to initiate private charter service that would certainly be the preferred way to go as the airports on both ends (LGA and DCA) are more convenient than either NYP or WAS and security concerns would only be as high as Amazon corporate security wanted them to be. On the other hand there is the question of how much the Port Authority would charge for use of the facility in NY and whomever runs DCA on the other hand. As both airports suffer a fair amount of congestion from commercial airlines who pay a heavy price to be there and pass it along to their passengers (JFK is often cheaper because of this) I can't imagine them getting a sweetheart deal unless forced into it by the governor. You can be sure that Governor Murphy in NJ will not sign off on that having lost out on HQ2 in Newark.