Amtrak Downeaster Discussion Thread

[Cowford]

I think the 2014 figures are using the old accounting for monthly passes and never got adjusted for the new system.

It's doubtful that there were (or are!) many monthly pass holders east of Portland. Regardless, the change in reporting started at the beginning of FY14, so the numbers are accurate.

2014 was definitely a good year but there is no way that in 2017 Brunswick is off 17% from peak. We will have to go back and check on that...I don't know why the numbers are so far off but I know the average station counts and this year has been the busiest by far.

If you can refute Amtrak's own numbers with hard evidence, please do!

Brunswick has done well. Freeport had an unfavorable schedule adjustment this year...

Let's be honest: It hasn't done well. NNEPRA forecasted that the extension would generate 36,000 NEW riders in its first year of operation, building from there. Five years and tens of millions of dollars in, TOTAL ridership barely covers that target, leave alone ORGANIC/NEW ridership.

[Cowford]

And on the subject of Freeport... much has been made of the station's promise to attract folks that would come up for a shop 'til you drop weekend. It's a very walkable location from the train for shops, restaurants, hotels... even an ocean-side state park is a quick bike ride from town. And while the present schedule's a non-starter for a day trip, it would work out well for a weekend trip from Boston.

As such, I'd propose that Freeport's fortunes in drawing weekend riders from MA/NH could serve as a proxy for expected performance on a Rockland extension.

Just under 5,300 passengers arrived in Freeport in FY17 (assuming inbound and outbound ridership is balanced). It would be interesting to know how many of those riders are "from away" and coming up for a weekend vacation.

[MEC407]

Are fewer people shopping in Freeport in general? More people shopping online? I know some folks who work in retail and they all say that they've been seeing steady declines in customers over the past few years, even though the companies they work for are doing extremely well — they're just selling more online than in their brick-and-mortar stores.

Freeport is synonymous with shopping. It has more to offer than just shopping, but not many people know that. Rockland, on the other hand, is known as more of a vacation/getaway destination in its own rite. I could see Rockland station outperforming Freeport station eventually, especially if the neighboring towns of Camden and Rockport encourage their visitors to take the train.

[Ridgefielder]

Are fewer people shopping in Freeport in general? More people shopping online? I know some folks who work in retail and they all say that they've been seeing steady declines in customers over the past few years, even though the companies they work for are doing extremely well — they're just selling more online than in their brick-and-mortar stores.

Freeport is synonymous with shopping. It has more to offer than just shopping, but not many people know that. Rockland, on the other hand, is known as more of a vacation/getaway destination in its own rite. I could see Rockland station outperforming Freeport station eventually, especially if the neighboring towns of Camden and Rockport encourage their visitors to take the train.

Also worth noting-- Rockland is the terminus of the ferries to Vinalhaven, North Haven, and Matinicus. All three of those islands have substantial summer colonies. Matinicus, for one, actively tries to discourage visitors from bringing their cars out to the island, and I don't think the other two are particularly welcoming. It's not much of a stretch to think that the Maine State Ferry Service would attempt to coordinate their sailing schedules with the train.

Nor is it that much of a stretch to think that, if this service gains traction, someone will have a try at running a boat from Rockland to Isle Au Haut or even Mount Desert Island itself. Rockland to Isle Au Haut via the Fox Island Thoroughfare is ~25 miles. That's roughly the same distance as from E 35th St. in Manhattan to Atlantic Highlands NJ, a route that takes the modern dual-hulled commuter boats an hour flat.

[Cowford]

Last I checked, Freeport was still very much alive and well, and not the victim of e-commerce. The last stats I can find show a sustained recovery after the recession. I'd surmise that Freeport has been, and will continue to be more resilient to e-commerce vs typical retail shops/locations given the nature of outlets (shoppers looking for those bargains) and the "experience" of going up there, tying it into a vacation, etc.

Don't think FRE is a fair comparison, how about Portland? How successful has the Downeaster been at bringing in the weekend tourist?

Absolutely, the point that the Rockland area has many attributes not found in Portland and/or Freeport is valid, but keep in mind that Rockland is two+ hours further down the line, will get VERY limited service and a vehicle is required to do more comprehensive exploration of the area.

Someone step up and take a stab at how many riders will come up each Friday!

[MaineCoonCat]

Are fewer people shopping in Freeport in general? More people shopping online? I know some folks who work in retail and they all say that they've been seeing steady declines in customers over the past few years, even though the companies they work for are doing extremely well — they're just selling more online than in their brick-and-mortar stores.

Freeport is synonymous with shopping. It has more to offer than just shopping, but not many people know that. Rockland, on the other hand, is known as more of a vacation/getaway destination in its own rite. I could see Rockland station outperforming Freeport station eventually, especially if the neighboring towns of Camden and Rockport encourage their visitors to take the train.

Also worth noting-- Rockland is the terminus of the ferries to Vinalhaven, North Haven, and Matinicus. All three of those islands have substantial summer colonies. Matinicus, for one, actively tries to discourage visitors from bringing their cars out to the island, and I don't think the other two are particularly welcoming. It's not much of a stretch to think that the Maine State Ferry Service would attempt to coordinate their sailing schedules with the train.

Nor is it that much of a stretch to think that, if this service gains traction, someone will have a try at running a boat from Rockland to Isle Au Haut or even Mount Desert Island itself. Rockland to Isle Au Haut via the Fox Island Thoroughfare is ~25 miles. That's roughly the same distance as from E 35th St. in Manhattan to Atlantic Highlands NJ, a route that takes the modern dual-hulled commuter boats an hour flat.

I just measured it using Google Earth and it's a 1 km. +- a step or two. walk from Rockland Station to the Vinalhaven Ferry Dock.. (1 km = ~3280').. A bit of a schlep with luggage but maybe a boost to the local taxi's..

[artman]

And on the subject of Freeport... much has been made of the station's promise to attract folks that would come up for a shop 'til you drop weekend. It's a very walkable location from the train for shops, restaurants, hotels... even an ocean-side state park is a quick bike ride from town. And while the present schedule's a non-starter for a day trip, it would work out well for a weekend trip from Boston.

As such, I'd propose that Freeport's fortunes in drawing weekend riders from MA/NH could serve as a proxy for expected performance on a Rockland extension.

Just under 5,300 passengers arrived in Freeport in FY17 (assuming inbound and outbound ridership is balanced). It would be interesting to know how many of those riders are "from away" and coming up for a weekend vacation.

I agree with you. Some notes on Freeport:

I took my family and friends (seven of us) to Freeport last Saturday (12/2) for Sparkle Weekend. There were many thousands of people there, and much to do for free and to see. As for Freeport, the great majority come only for day trips and are fine driving from Mass and NH just for the day. The scheduling actually works out great for us on a day trip, which we have done numerous times. We took DE 699 and arrived in Freeport about 1:30, return was DE 698 at 6:18. We are usually pretty worn out by then. 5 hours is perfect.

The train was sold out from Portland to Freeport because one of the special events during the weekend was a train ride from Freeport to Portland and back. 250 got on in Portland and disembarked in Freeport. Last year they did Brunswick to Freeport. Overall, I think that hurt the day, as there was no other reasonable day trip to be made.

Also, the train was done up in Christmas lights and Santa was aboard with elves and candy canes. These 'extras' were free. Many of our friends (who shell out $$$ for Polar Express' each Winter) expressed an interest in doing this next year. They had no idea it existed.

32 boarded the 6:18 return. Disappointing. But, the inbound was 'sold out' so could more have wanted to come?

I think Freeport should be very heavily promoted by NNEPRA in Massachusetts market. People are rabid about going to LL Bean and the outlets. Many, many make monthly trips there just to shop and eat. I think the vast majority have no idea a train goes there from North Station. The annual ridership should be in the tens of thousands, no four digits. This market is greatly underserved on weekends

[Cowford]

If it's a gauge of promotion activity, NNEPRA has four travel packages specific to Freeport (in addition to several others that include the town in the itinerary). They ain't cheap (the "Gardens Aglow" one-night trip is $660-$860 for two from Boston); one who doesn't mind trip planning can surely be able to cobble together a similar trip for substantially less.

[gokeefe]

It's doubtful that there were (or are!) many monthly pass holders east of Portland. Regardless, the change in reporting started at the beginning of FY14, so the numbers are accurate.

I went back and used NARP/RPA's website to take a look at the numbers. I am in agreement with you that the numbers presented are accurate and as you stated initially they do in fact reflect (for the full Amtrak FY) what the ridership looked like within the new accounting for monthly passes. That being said I am now more confused than ever in some respects in regards to the Brunswick figures. I can't make sense of the decline other than the shift in gas prices, which now due to improved economic conditions seems to be resulting in increased ridership.

If you can refute Amtrak's own numbers with hard evidence, please do!

I simply can't because a) we don't collect written reports on ridership and b) I still can't make sense of the ridership statistics for BRK especially given the service levels. I can say that it has been made very clear to us by those who see things on the ground directly that ridership is way up.

Let's be honest: It hasn't done well. NNEPRA forecasted that the extension would generate 36,000 NEW riders in its first year of operation, building from there. Five years and tens of millions of dollars in, TOTAL ridership barely covers that target, leave alone ORGANIC/NEW ridership.

I think that this is a very fair criticism in the sense that clearly the intention and thought was that there would be 36,000 "new" riders in addition to what was currently on the service prior to the extension. What has happened instead appears to be a significant amount of ride shifting from Portland to Brunswick. In some respects this is beneficial as the Portland Transportation Center clearly has been strained far beyond capacity. In other respects its very disappointing as it is not clear whether relieving congestion at the PTC has allowed for new growth directly from Portland (which one would expect to happen).

I think its also notable that Exeter is somewhat below its historical peak of approximately 101,000 passengers. Wells on the other hand suddenly saw a massive increase within a single year. Exeter would appear to be related to gas prices and commuter tendencies but even that analysis is flawed due to the severely constrained parking situation. Clouding the picture even further is the overall ridership trend for the route which is positive at almost every single station for the past two or three years except Freeport.

So the two macro trends are a) cheaper energy and b) improved economic conditions in Maine. Cheaper energy has led to some loss (from peak) of commuters closer to Boston but improved economic conditions in Maine have meant increased use of the service for leisure travel and likely some increases in longer distance commuting as well. At least in that analysis Wells, which is roughly at the geographic intersection of these two trends, seems to have the expected flat ridership (until this year of course).

[Cowford]

So the two macro trends are a) cheaper energy and b) improved economic conditions in Maine. Cheaper energy has led to some loss (from peak) of commuters closer to Boston but improved economic conditions in Maine have meant increased use of the service for leisure travel and likely some increases in longer distance commuting as well...

I'll offer a different take. First, cheaper energy (read gasoline) would have more of an impact on the long distance modal choice. For NH commuters driving to Boston, if gas prices go up, say to $4/gal, their commute fuel cost goes from $10-13 to $16-20. Given all the other costs associated with commuting (tolls, parking, other vehicle operating costs), $6-7/day isn't a huge game changer. It's more about other choices, .e.g., driving to Haverhill or Newburyport to hop on MBTA. NNEPRA lost NH commuters due the service debacle a few years back. With service having gotten back to normal, those commuters have returned, and then some. In 2017, ridership at the six stations closest to Boston grew 9% over 2014.

Now look at the more distant stations.

Ridership at the five furthest stations from Boston declined 5% 2017 vs 2014. The longer-distance service got the ol' double-whammy in ATK FY15... fuel prices fell from the mid- to upper-$3s/gal to the $2s/gal in Q4 2014. Whammy one. Then service imploded. Whammy two. The gas price headwind has lessened somewhat, but remains. Service consistency has stabilized, and maybe even improved... service has even been added (east of Portland)... economic growth surrounding the corridor is pretty solid... ridership has clawed back from the nadir. Yes, I'm the service's #1 constructive critic, but it has to be recognized that the eastern half of the service has not fully recovered. There's a problem.

One hindrance to "eastern" growth is "western" growth. The more folks that buy EXE-BON seats, the fewer the seats available to folks trying to buy POR-BON seats. While anecdotal evidence, some Portland resident friends of mine recently told me they were going to a Bruins game. I asked if they were taking the train; they said it was sold out, so they were driving. I'm guessing the train was not full departing Maine, leave alone Portland.

[Arlington]

Some of the DE's Cabbages look pretty weatherbeaten (I think 90224).

Is there any allowance for NNEPRA to scrape a little rust, apply a little rustoleum, or refresh some of the decals/stickers? Like how about some kind of ad-wrap? Maybe tap the marketing budget to make the "welcome end" at North Station look a little more welcoming?

[gokeefe]

They are being cycled through Beech Grove. I think that one is next.

[Arlington]

They are being cycled through Beech Grove. I think that one is next.

Good to hear!

[Renegade334]

Apologies if this has been discussed before (haven't been on the forum in a while) but what is the potential of Downeaster being electrified? Is it worth the time and money? Is it feasible? Are there more important CIPs to finish consider doing before Portland - Boston electrification?

[Arlington]

Apologies if this has been discussed before (haven't been on the forum in a while) but what is the potential of Downeaster being electrified? Is it worth the time and money? Is it feasible? Are there more important CIPs to finish consider doing before Portland - Boston electrification?

It is not worth the time and money, and there is a huge "79mph Diesels" backlog of things to get through.

Killjoy moment first: Most electrification talk is NSRL-related and always ends at the Massachusetts state line, and really would tend to end at someplace like Anderson Woburn or Haverhill almost no matter how you slice it.

Double Killjoy: Even in an electrified NSRL world, the Downeaster would probably use heavy FRA loco-hauled and likely be incapable of using the NSRL and therefore be among those services that continue to operate diesel hauled (no engine swap) although would offer a transfer to Acela at Anderson Woburn, while the DE itself would continue to terminate at NS surface. (also picture any NH service being diesel-hauled, Woburn-transferred, and surface-terminating)

And the practical things
- First the DE has to get modern signals to allow greater than 6 daily roundtrips
- Second the DE would need to max out its frequency & performance as a diesel train, growing both longer and more frequent for a long time before the need arises to electrify.

And don't feel bad: 79/110/125mph diesels can provide pretty awesome service, and don't feel slighted: Richmond VA (a much larger corridor than the DE) has wanted electrification/extension of the NEC and is still building its business case.