All Things Cascades incl Vancouver

Brightline would be a great choice to operate just about ANY corridor, given their business / operating model. The issue is before they spread out, they need to finish LV-LA and Tampa first.

Erik,

It’s your turn. We need the local guy in this.

How far out from the centers of Portland, Olympia and Seattle are the commuting rings? 50 miles? 100? 20? The smaller the radius, the less the need for inter urban rail.

What is the local attitude to cooperation between Oregon and Washington? Bad intergovernmental relationships mean less work done?

What is the commuter volume, and the cross city visit volume?

Would the two cities be better off pushing TOFC instead of passenger rail traffic?

John_Perkowski wrote:How far out from the centers of Portland, Olympia and Seattle are the commuting rings? 50 miles? 100? 20? The smaller the radius, the less the need for inter urban rail.

Realistically I would say 30 miles maximum for the vast majority of commuters; the top 5%ers might go up to 50 miles. Right now I'm commuting from Salem to Tualatin 2-3 times a week. The issue really is the train only goes certain places - then what? Sure, I COULD take the 1X bus to Wilsonville and then WES to Tualatin (one stop) but my office is a long ways from WES, and even a bit of a walk from the nearest bus stops. Yet, I am in a very heavy job center. Also due to the part of Salem I live in, it takes two buses just to get downtown.

John_Perkowski wrote:What is the local attitude to cooperation between Oregon and Washington? Bad intergovernmental relationships mean less work done?

I don't think this is a significant issue, Oregon and Washington generally work together pretty well and have open communications. The largest issue right now is Oregon's absolute insistence on light rail on the replacement bridge for the Interstate Bridge (I-5); while many in Washington do not want light rail (they are open to various bus options, including dedicated bus lanes or BRT.) Those who support light rail in Washington do so with an asterisk - "we want it, but we aren't going to pay a penny towards it."

John_Perkowski wrote:What is the commuter volume, and the cross city visit volume?

Uh...can you be more specific? Not sure how to answer this.

John_Perkowski wrote:Would the two cities be better off pushing TOFC instead of passenger rail traffic?

This is already happening at least on a small scale, due to most of the trans-Pacific container market calling on Tacoma and Seattle rather than Portland (which only sees one ship a week). The State of Oregon funded a new "intermodal center" in Millersburg to try and get farmers in the Willamette Valley to ship their containers via rail, but then the market dropped out and the facility hasn't moved one single container. (There's an even larger debacle in eastern Oregon with a similar facility...) But so many of the trucks are headed to intermediate points like Chehalis and Lacey - what good would TOFC from Portland to Seattle to do if you have to then truck your trailer back 70 miles?

John_Perkowski wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:38 am 1) on hand Ubers. Most passengers need to get someplace else after the station.
2) High bandwidth secure Wi-Fi.
3) Quality food and beverage service.
4) Most importantly, a vector of advance faster than I-5.

You're definitely right about #1 but most people in the region are not averse to using public transit. And that's a sore lacking point at so many stations.

There's already wi-fi on the train and it works reasonably well...most of the people on the train aren't businesspeople though from what I've observed. I don't think improving the internet access will generate much more ridership...

Food & Beverage? Yeah, it stinks, but it exists, I don't think they will do much.

Faster trains? Absolutely. Right now - in fact I had to make an emergency trip last Sunday to Seattle at the last second, and I did it in 2.5 hours each way. The train is a good hour plus longer. AND, my 2.5 hour trip was door to door, not station to station, so I didn't just beat the train, but I eliminated the inconvenient transfer (transit? uber?) that is required by the station stops.

Tadman wrote: ↑Mon Dec 25, 2023 8:09 pm travel patterns south of Portland, PDX-SEA, and SEA-VAN are radically different. But we try to serve those radically different patterns with through trains (one from LA!) that were until recently fixed consist. If I I were searching for success in the PNW, I'd have three different routes - Eugene-PDX, PDX-SEA, SEA-VAN with departures and consist optimized for those routes.

Absolutely correct.

SEA-PDX is the bread and butter of the service. Service to Vancouver is just icing on the cake and not much else. Service to Eugene is...ugh. We could eliminate those ends and replace them with fast, frequent, luxury bus service, and use the equipment in a much higher and better utilization between Seattle and Portland.

Of course, the issue is BNSF track space, and Amtrak's ability to turn a train for the next service in less than six hours. (Absolutely disgraceful Amtrak takes six hours, and they don't even clean the train!)

Mr. Halstead, must we not forget that Salem is the Oregon capital, so must we note that Washington's at Olympia is served?

After all, first, who knows how long the Starlight will be around (it should be gone when the existing equipment cries "Uncle")to serve Salem, and that one must wonder why the two state universities (UO in Salem OSU in Corvallis) have not proven to be a "draw".

It takes Amtrak between 50 and 90 minutes to turn Piedmont trains, and I'm assuming the variability has nothing to do with the time it takes to actually turn the train, but with other factors (like avoiding conflicting train schedules in single track territory). It seems to me that the Cascades schedule is built around enabling day trips in both directions between Vancouver-Seattle and Seattle-Portland and allowing someone from Eugene to take a day trip to Portland (but not a day trip from Portland to Eugene). It also looks like the planning is built around rotating the trains that overnight to ensure maintenance is carried out in Seattle. It seems to be that it's not taking 6 hours to turn a train, but that, for other reasons, the train isn't simply being turned as quickly as possible (it could be that crew are the significant cost, so there aren't more services, that they've hit some limit with what BNSF is willing to support without other infrastructure improvements).

There is an RFP out for Superliner replacement equipment, I can't think of any reason the Starlight must use Superliners and can't be equipped with the replacement equipment.

Mr RandallW,

I think Mr Halstead knows a thing or two about the Portland-Seattle run. He lives there.

wigwagfan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:07 pm Of course, the issue is BNSF track space, and Amtrak's ability to turn a train for the next service in less than six hours. (Absolutely disgraceful Amtrak takes six hours, and they don't even clean the train!)

Is this six hour figure determined by Amtrak's ability to turn a train or is there something else at play? NICTD turns trains in 20 minutes at South Bend. Of course, "turn" is a nebulous term. Does it mean change ends, dump the toilets, vacuum the cars, wash the train???

I assume that in 1971 an edict came out that said "at all outer points, trains shall be turned and washed, cleaned, restocked, etc.. etc.. etc.." and since management in DC has little idea of where Portland even is, they have never changed this. Contrast this with most locally managed commuter operations that probably turn a train in 20 minutes or less by just changing ends because they know this is not the Super Chief and we do not have to clean the Turquoise Room for Cary Grant. The trains are cleaned at night or lunch time once a day. Why there is an extensive procedure for turning a corridor train is beyond me.

Of course, if I was Jay Inslee, tomorrow I'd call Matt Rose or whoever runs BNSF now and say "how much do you want if we supply you with 50 Siemens coaches and 10 HEP cars to run 5-6 RT/day between Seattle and Portland?". Staff it with local Washington and Oregon managers.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Mr. Halstead, must we not forget that Salem is the Oregon capital, so must we note that Washington's at Olympia is served?

Funny you mention that since I have called Salem my home for the last two and a half years. :)

I would also question whether Olympia is adequately served by Amtrak. Salem's Amtrak station (former SP station) is a mere few blocks from the Oregon Capitol. Easy walking distance. Olympia doesn't even have a stop - the station stop is in Lacey, and at a remote station (one built brand new by WSDOT in the 1990s) at the edge of exurbia tract developments. I believe it takes two buses to get to the Capitol...definitely no walk.

RandallW wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:57 pmIt seems to me that the Cascades schedule is built around enabling day trips in both directions between Vancouver-Seattle and Seattle-Portland and allowing someone from Eugene to take a day trip to Portland (but not a day trip from Portland to Eugene). It also looks like the planning is built around rotating the trains that overnight to ensure maintenance is carried out in Seattle. It seems to be that it's not taking 6 hours to turn a train, but that, for other reasons, the train isn't simply being turned as quickly as possible (it could be that crew are the significant cost, so there aren't more services, that they've hit some limit with what BNSF is willing to support without other infrastructure improvements).

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but you have one train overnight in Eugene (that's UP track south of Portland) and one train that spends five hours in Eugene, something like from noon until 4:00 PM or so. The same is true in Portland where trainsets sit for hours and hours.

I've drawn up theoretical schedules and with much shorter turn times and eliminating the north-of-Seattle and south-of-Eugene segments, it's possible to run an eight trip daily schedule with existing equipment. Of course that doesn't account for BNSF track scheduling or crew availability, but you wouldn't need new equipment. And yes, some equipment would have to overnight in Portland every other night (but still allows for maintenance in Seattle every other day). That would increase capacity where it's needed, and not waste empty seat-miles where years of advertising and subsidy has not paid off in increased ridership. Besides, as a Salem resident, I'd rather have buses every hour between 5:00 AM and midnight between Salem and Portland, than two trains a day. Two trains a day = I drive on I-5 ON MY SCHEDULE.

from Tadman:

From what I understand, travel patterns south of Portland, PDX-SEA, and SEA-VAN are radically different.

In my experience, this has been very true. However, I was on 505 this week (SB departure from SEA at 708am to PDX/EUG) and there were lots of passengers who boarded at intermediate stations who continued south of PDX. In the past, the trains with the highest ridership were the trains that ran EUG-SEA or PDX-VAC. Those trains are able to pick up riders from the suburban stops around SEA and PDX and offer a 1-seat ride to their destinations. For example, the person sitting next to me was riding TAC-EUG. We also picked up a lot of passengers at Vancouver WA for the continuing trip south.

from Tadman:

We once had a discussion in these parts about the difference between windshield time and train time. I can handle a 30pct+ longer train ride if I can read or work on a laptop. I get nothing done in my car other than talking on the phone.

The decision whether or not to take Amtrak revolves around how much hassle it will be for me. Yesterday's quick trip on 505/506 meant an early departure and a late arrival back home but I didn't need a car in PDX. Easy call: drive my car to Tukwila to catch the train and use MAX in Portland. This wasn't a business trip, but I had some work that needed to be done for next week and I finished it on the train in the morning. I shopped at Powell's during the day and did some reading on the trip back. If I had needed to go places that aren't easily served by Tri-Met, I would have driven.

the trains with the highest ridership were the trains that ran EUG-SEA or PDX-VAC.

Is that because of the "one-seat ride" theory, or because those trains had the best schedules for the PDX-SEA segment?

Looking at the station on/offs, I would argue that while select trains (namely Saturdays) might see the uptick in ridership, the averages tell a telling story that the ridership just isn't there. Even ODOT acknowledges that the buses south of Portland, that offer better and more convenient schedules (as well as stops in cities Amtrak flies through at 79 MPH) are more often booked up, while the Amtrak trains struggle to fill just one of its many coaches. (for example, Woodburn is a blow through town on Amtrak, and Tualatin is a major job center and access to many residential areas, but Amtrak is 15 miles to the east - and three TriMet buses away.)

https://wsdot.wa.gov/sites/default/file ... Report.pdf

According to the 2022 Cascades Performance Report, 46,000 passengers rode within the Eugene to Portland segment while 45,000 passengers rode from somewhere south of Portland to somewhere within the Portland to Seattle segment (page 12). Doing the math, that's about 63 riders per trip (2 Talgo cars or 1 Horizon coach). Not good numbers, but I would wait for the 2023 report before making any major service decisions.

Oregon corridor ridership stats:
https://www.oregon.gov/odot/RPTD/RPTD%2 ... ummary.pdf