What happens if Pan Am collapses?

Well, from the sounds of it, it just seems like someday not all that far off, Pan Am will be run straight into the ground with equipment shortages, unmaintained equipment and track, and axed customers. Maybe people just like to exaggerate and be over dramatic, I don't know, but it seems Pan Am management has little regard for what they do so long as they milk the cow to it's last breathe. So are we honestly looking at nothing but decline until the end?

And then what? CSX seems to want nothing to with anything north or east of Worcester, NS has relatively little up here with their Pan Am partnership, and P&W (I think they're Class II? And AFAIK, Pan Am and P&W are the only New England Class IIs) is pretty small to pick up what's left behind.

I'm not looking for this to go into some full blown argument over management or anything, but I'm looking for some honest insight into the level of service New England is getting from them and how the future looks. If they die off, is that the end of most of the region's freight? Is anyone willing to pick up the pieces?

From the few times I check in around here, I just get the feeling as though Maine's, NH's, and a good piece of MA's freight is precariously perched. Which is a real shame, seeing as freight rail is really a key part of future economics.

Well, imo if GRS/PAR were to collapse I think you'd see NS pick up the CT River line for their own use. The PVRR would do well to absorb the rest of the Holyoke tracks. The NECR may also pick up some of the pieces.

I think Pan Am is going to live on; the NS partnership is working, if not smoothly and not to expectations, yet, and they do a healthy business through CSX at Worcester. They may downsize in the future if their traffic base in Maine continues to shrink, but they aren't anywhere near collapse, IMHO. Sometimes it's too easy to judge the situation based on a narrow or limited perspective. For example, if you live near a branch line that Guilford abandoned years ago, you would think they were on their way out. But if you live in an area where they have a concentration of customers and new business, Ayer, for example, you'd expect they were holding their own. The freight railroad business is pretty fluid and diverse. A former line side customer could have moved and now uses transload or intermodal to ship by rail, or could still be using line side service at another location you don't know about. A good example would be the lumber co-op that used to be in West Cambridge. They moved to the old N. Billerica Shop complex and get frequent service there from locals based in Lawrence. However, if you didn't know that, you would look at the derelict buildings and weed covered sidings in W. Cambridge and think, "there goes another one".
It is still true that Pan Am has lost business and doesn’t spend lots of money on equipment and track, but they have publicly stated that minimal track maintenance and buying old power is their accepted business model. I think they shy away from low volume customers because they want to maximize their returns serving high volume customers, so using surcharges or just infrequent service, they drive away unwanted business. However there have been cases where even what appears to be a high volume customer has given up on them for poor service. I think though that’s more a reflection of their business practices than their financial health. Somewhere in the service business, there is a fine line between providing service at a loss or break even and above. Only the provider knows for sure.

They have been around for 30 years, what makes you think all of a sudden they are going away now? If they do, it will not be a "collapse", it will just be sold, change hands just like any other buisness deal. You can fantasize all you want about who will end up with it, but I wouldn't be suprised if they are around for another 30 years. Maybe by then it will be "United Railways", or TWA, or Luftansa, or "Luftwaffe Railways", yeah! That would be cool, with the cross on the engines, painted camo +

Or maybe some cargo airline will buy the rights to the old name/colors/logo and we'll be seeing smokey DC-8 freighters painted in "Guilford Air System" livery.

In all seriousness, I agree with mick's sentiment: they've been here for 30 years; they're not going to suddenly collapse tomorrow. They're a private company and it's impossible to know what their financial situation is unless you're on the inside, but the general consensus from folks who seem to know about these things is that the company is making a profit. Probably a good profit at that, otherwise why would they still be in business?

If for some reason they did decide to get out of the railroad business, I suspect that Irving (parent company of NBSR/EMR/MNR) would be very interested in the Maine lines. For the west end, I imagine NS might have first dibs on that, seeing as how they already own 50% of it...?

Not the throw fuel on what is a merely a speculative fire here, but if Pan Am were to "collapse", it would most likely be a bankruptcy filing as a result of NorthPoint in Cambridge. I don't know all of the ins and outs of the story but my understanding is that all is not well with the project and or the partnerships involved. But, as previously stated, I would suspect Pan Am will be around for a while longer.

I'm not saying they'd collapse tomorrow or anything. Perhaps "die out" would be a better choice of wording. I get the feeling they will fade away and die off by the way many people post around this forum. Being around 30 years doesn't mean that couldn't happen, either.

If they died tomorrow? The NS would most likely scoopy up at least to Ayer it not to Rigby - with the rest being gobbled up by the NBSR (or their Maine Northern subsidiary) and a combination of the SLR and MMA (if they are even left in a year).

They would probably give up the CT trackage to anyone.

Doubtful it would happen, but if so, NS would almost certainly get Ayer to MCV,CSXT would get the Worcester main, and a 3rd party (RailAmerica, Irving, G&W, etc) would get Ayer East. I could also picture the NS getting the line to Portland, with CSXT getting trackage rights to Rigby and a 3rd party running the MEC. Either way, can't picture a class one getting exclusive rights on the MEC.

If only such a miracle would occur overnight, and customers knew they would definitely have another rail company lined up, most would be out in the streets celebrating. Supposedly, NBSR is already pissed at PAR for their Mattawamkeag service. I'm not quite sure why that would be, but the recent dumping of all that wall board behind EMMC in Bangor probably didn't help things.

I can't help but think this kind of question is about 5 years late considering the sizable cash infusion from the PAS deal a couple of years ago. I generally agree with the musings, especially with consideration of how Irving would look at the opportunity. However, I don't see CSX, with a leading market position, rolling over to accept a secondary position Ayer-Portland with trackage rights over NS. Though a relatively minor transaction in the big picture, I don't think it would take much to check an NS move given the larger political climate over railroad competition, regional politics, and the interests of the new carrier assuming Pan Am's wholly-owned operations.

There was a period a few years back when GTI was acting like they were on the edge of bankruptcy, not paying their debts, ignoring court-ordered settlements etc. That appears to have mostly abated with the North Point cash, but lawyers are busy over the corpse of that project and the fat lady has not sung. Timothy Mellon's age isn't easily obtainable via the Internet, but he appears to be about 70, living in Laramie, WY and making substantial donations to right-wing causes. I've always had the idea that GTI's really deep-seated bloody-mindedness comes from him, so when he passes on or disengages from the business, things will change. Whether or not GTI will go through bankruptcy as part of that change is hard to predict. His heirs and their lawyers, whether it's relatives or the Heritage Foundation, will want cash and I would expect that to motivate sale of the property, either in parts or as a whole. Of course, it's always possible that some William Loeb-esque trust will be forthcoming, to carry out historic preservation of "railroading with an attitude". Teems with quiet fun...

newpylong wrote:They would probably give up the CT trackage to anyone.

State of CT would likely pick it up to preserve it for potential commuter rail use w frieght rights going to P&W, CSOR, or even CNE.

jbvb wrote:Timothy Mellon's age isn't easily obtainable via the Internet, but he appears to be about 70, living in Laramie, WY and making substantial donations to right-wing causes.

I don't think the Mellon family ends with Timothy; I think he has children. Also, you're forgetting Fink and son-- as shareholders they'd have a say in any disposition of the property.

If Pan Am does collapse, then <Pan Am Railways (formerly Guilford Rail System> moves to <Fallen Flags>. Ba-Ding!

You tryin' to put me out of work, jaymac?