Vincent wrote:We can expect most of the SEA/PDX/EUG/SAC to Southern California business to just fly away--leaving the Starlight with an even uglier operating loss.
Looking at the SEA and PDX airline arrival/departures for points south, I'd argue that the vast majority of Southern California business already flies, and so does the Northern California business as well.
So, exactly what can Amtrak offer that isn't already offered by the half-dozen airlines? (And Greyhound is a competitor in this market as well, having one benefit - it serves the Southern Oregon cities along the I-5/old U.S. 99 corridor that Amtrak doesn't - like Roseburg, Grants Pass and Medford.)
An overnight train from Portland to San Jose would make sense - why wake up at 4:00 AM, be at PDX at 5:30 AM, to catch a 6:30 AM flight that arrives at one of the Bay Area airports around 8:00-8:30 AM (at the morning rush hour), and then commute to work; when you can leave Portland the afternoon/evening before, have a good night's sleep, wake up and enjoy a breakfast, catch up on your e-mails, and arrive much closer to your worksite, refreshed and unrushed.
For those passengers who want to continue south, they can connect to either a Coast Daylight or a San Joaquin train, with an easy and convenient transfer. Transfers aren't inconvenient unless it is made to be; I easily transferred from a SB Starlight to a Thruway bus in Sacramento; to another train in Stockton, to another bus in Bakersfield, and to another train at LAUPT to Anaheim; return from Anaheim to LAUPT, cross-platform transfer to the Starlight up to PDX. For passengers continuing east from PDX (when the train used to run on time) the connection to the Empire Builder was cross-platform, or required crossing two tracks of which the Empire Builder's short consist was parked north of the pedestrian crossover and easily indentifable.
Given that most people say that MAX is easily accessible from Portland's Union Station (in fact, it is an unsigned NINE BLOCK walk through a not-so-good part of Old Town; unless one catches a bus to transfer at Morrison/Yamhill Streets - but is hauling luggage up steps of a transit bus and stowing it...stowing it?...any more convenient? And beginning in three months, four of those blocks will be under construction, requiring a walk down a street with no sidewalks and frequented by bands of homeless bums, and across a four-lane street with no crosswalk or traffic light - and the number of busses serving the Union Station area will be reduced from a half-dozen today to just one, whose stop is three and a half city blocks from the main entrance to Union Station) - certainly transferring between two trains that are less than 50 feet apart can't be difficult unless you're blind.
From a tourist perspective; the Starlight route is advertised as the Pacific Coast. While the Eugene-Chemult "Cascade Crossing" is during the light of day, it isn't necessarily any more scenic than the Empire Builder or California Zephyr; there aren't any interesting rock formations, mountain peaks, national parks, or other "points of interest" along the stretch. Chemult-Chico is pretty much in the dark both directions. North of Eugene is just another agricultural valley for 300 miles; the San Joaquin Valley looks pretty much the same as the Willamette Valley.
From a "transportation necessity" perspective, Klamath Falls is the only stop with a significant population that would lose Amtrak service. It has bus service to Medford (which has a large regional airport), and K-Falls has its own airport with air service to Portland, and soon to San Francisco. (In deference to the "transportation subsidies" thread, neither Medford nor Klamath Falls are EAS subsidized airports. However, Klamath Falls' airport is located on an Air National Guard base used for F-15/F-16 fighter training.)
So, Amtrak's current Coast Starlight train doesn't offer a real benefit in serving communities that aren't served by other means of transportation; it isn't a very timely service (even when the train was consistently on-time), and the on-board amentities don't really make up for the lost time. It basically serves people who "enjoy the romance of the rails", who "can't fly" for one reason or another (although Amtrak handles a minority of ground transportation, too), or because Amtrak is cheaper than Greyhound or the airlines, and the person travelling is not time-sensitive. Well, the GrandLuxeExpress could take the #1 category away (without Amtrak's unfair competition, it could probably dedicate a trainset to this route, and with "economies of scale" offer both a "train ride only" option, and a "tour" option that combines the train with numerous off-ons and local hotel stays making the two day trip a six or seven day journey); and reasons #2 and #3 are hardly justifable reasons for federal subsidization of transport, unless all those airliners in the sky (and Greyhound on the I-5) are going to get an equal subsidy as well (I wouldn't mind paying only $80 each way, and not having to pay those pesky TSA, 9/11, and PFC taxes!!)