Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:41 am
As Colonel Perkowski notes in his immediate, "the bar" for being a financial success is greatly raised with the 250-some miles of new trackage needed. The threshold of "commercial success", i.e. people will ride it, is far more attainable than is "financial success", i.e. the private sector investors get both their periodic interest payments as well as getting paid back when their debt instruments mature.
BLW will be getting a fair amount of federal grants, so at least they have a bit of a cushion. The big thing that will cause issues with BLW IMO is, BLW not having direct access to LA proper, and BLW will have to rely on MetroLink to fill that gap until CAHSR gets their Phase 2 connection from LA to SD; keep in mind, Phase 1 is supposed to open in 2030... We are still in 2024, that "Phase 2" likely isn't happening until closer to 2040 at this rate.
If MetroLink begins an electrification program similar to what CalTrain in the Bay Area did, at least for LA Union Station to Rancho Cucamonga, BLW could use that to get true LA access before waiting for CAHSR
Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:41 am
Meanwhile, back in Florida, it certainly appears from my eight or so rides to date, some of which have been simply to get from Boca to either Miami or WP, Brightline is a "commercial success". Now while I must wonder how much concern Civil Engineers have had over the soil and the possible sinking of the ROW regarding the thirty five miles of new ROW laid over "flat as a pancake" Central Florida, it's "only minutes into the First Quarter" to determine if WP-MCO will prove to be either noted "success".
Brightline's ridership is already surpassing the ridership of airlines between Orlando and Miami, and has much better frequency. It's hitting some crazy six-figure monthly ridership numbers, and the service just started in September.
Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:06 am
Of possible interest, I just "drove the Googlemobile" around the Rancho Station. There appears to be an adequately sized parking lot adjacent to such. It's "pay", but then "so what's new".
They likely will need much more parking, since I'd imagine BLW will bring more customers than current MetroLink operations - not to mention the fact you will likely have a lot of overnight parkers, as I don't imagine many people who drive to and park at the BLW station that will return to their cars the same day.
Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:06 am
Further, Mr. Google notes that KONT is 3.7 miles away. Reportedly, this airport is lacking both passengers and airlines serving it when compared with the other regional airports in the Basin. Possibly there will be a "Surrey With The Fringe on the Top" shuttling passengers from there to the Rancho station.
KONT is surrounded by railroads, but there is no direct railroad route that could be established between KONT and the Rancho Cucamonga station. That being said, 3.7 miles is a short distance, a simple shuttle should suffice, but that puts you at the mercy of Southern California traffic...