Amtrak July 2021 ridership report

https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... r-2021.pdf

End of year performance is in… pretty good year for Auto Train with 2.3 million surplus over its fully allocated costs. Little bit of work to do elsewhere on the system…..

Ridership down ~30% on 20% fewer seats... and thats without the influence of the 2020 lockdowns. Ugly.

Load factors of 25% on the corridors? Unsustainable.

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eolesen wrote: ↑Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:51 am Ridership down ~30% on 20% fewer seats... and thats without the influence of the 2020 lockdowns. Ugly.

Load factors of 25% on the corridors? Unsustainable.

Keep in mind that all of the numbers posted by Amtrak are Year to Date (YTD). So the July YTD load factor number covers the full period from Oct 2020 thru to July 2021.

Looking at other numbers,
Monthly NEC ridership in Sept 2021 is about 60% of what it was in Sept 2019 based on these two numbers:
Sept 2021 NEC ridership (monthly) - 655K
Sept 2019 NEC ridership (monthly) - 1.086M

All things considered, not to bad.

I wonder if this would be the time to hand off the NEC services to Ameristar Rail as a public private partnership type business model eventually including the state sponsored services and leave Amtrak with the long-distance routes to worry about. Amtrak will still be the manager and dispatcher of the NEC and the states would have to be convinced to buy in to another operator but if the price is right, they probably would.

There is zero chance that the NEC is going to be turned over to the 4 guys who dreamt up Ameristar Rail.

The corridor is a big messy thing. To get an idea of what is involved to improve it simply look at the Northeast Corridor Commissions FY2022-2026 Capital Investment Plan
https://nec-commission.com/app/uploads/ ... Oct-21.pdf
and the Appendix
https://nec-commission.com/app/uploads/ ... Oct-21.pdf

Spin off the one part that actually works? Yeah, that makes no sense.

It would make more sense to spin off the long distance operations, but nobody would want it.

Private forget it ? Just remember how well that has not gone in the UK.

We'll see if Amtrak ups its game in Florida when Brightline reaches Orlando. Competition rather than takeover. Brightline receives support from the state and federal governments, and maybe local too from Miami-Dade, in the ancient tradition of the railroad robber barons, but is building structures efficiently. Lose money now, make money later; hourly service already on its commuter-like route. Unless it's just a jobs program for the executives. That was more my suspicion on the Baltimore-Washington maglev, half funded by Central Japan Railway Company: a few nice jobs and maybe a legitimate hope it would be built.

Seems to me Amtrak could make a profit restarting the Louisville-to-Sanford Autotrain, but what do I know?

As for Brightline, Orlando puts it in more or less direct competition with Amtrak. "First U.S. intercity train station in an airport." Amtrak almost had that at MIA, but the airport flubbed the platforms. Then Tampa, assuming they bulldoze the Nimby oppo. That competes with Amtrak's funny Tampa service. And Jacksonville in the more distant future, even as Amtrak is considering extending the Palmetto from Savannah to there.

The Florida Amtrak trains are late all the time, of course.

All of this assumes of course that brightline is going to be this big giant profitable success - it is very very far from certain that it will be. A private company isn’t just looking to break even or make a slight operational positive - it wants a return on its capital investment. Even with decent ridership brightline could fail to succeed as a private venture and have to morph into some sort of state supported setup. While yes there is some competition for Amtrak in the Miami - Orlando market it’s not going to replace those taking the train the longer distances.

Don't forget that that to Brightline the important consideration is whether the whole operation -- i.e., rail plus the increased value of the real estate -- is profitable. If Brightline's owners sell the real estate at an opportune moment, we may then find out whether the rail operation can stand on its own.

There's an interesting parallel here with Henry Huntington and Pacific Electric: By assembling and building PE Huntington, who had previously acquired massive land holdings in the area (dirt cheap, one might say), sold the land at a stunning increase in its value, pocketed the money and walked away whistling. PE was left to sink or swim, and with no incentive for anyone to make the necessary investments to help it swim, it sank.

I hope Brightline follows the Ray Croc / Harry Sonneborn school of thought, which is "McDonalds isn't in the food business, they're in the real estate business. "

Land ownership = perpetual income....

Railroads who sold off land got one-time gains from it, but lose in the long run. If you keep the land and lease it out, as businesses come & fail, the landlord can still find a way to generate cashflow at market rates.

I think it safe assumption to note that Amtrak isn't competing for anything in the Florida market. It's hard to believe that "two a day" remain down there as the "one a day" end point model was demonstrated during the "tri-weekly" period, of which there is no assurance that the last of that has been seen.

Now so far as Brightline, the "Real Estate play" outlined in previous posts cannot be ignored. It just might be the salvation for an initiative that never once "made numbers" during its '18-'20 "Disneyland ride" trial run. However, terminating at McCoy Field, there are limitations on the commercial development around the perimeter of such. Now regarding when it commences to provide real transportation between population centers, we shall see. To my amazement, this appears to be a go; but then there are some "fat and sassy" accredited investors laughing all the way to the bank. 8% Federal Tax free is not a bad haul; State tax free as well as most of them if they reside in income tax free Florida. Also bet these investors have enough pull to have "Tallabux" flowing should the venture flop. Such a bailout would be the State buys up the bonds from the investors, say @ 95 (par would look too much what it is - a bailout) and takes over Brightline's operation. Lest we forget, Florida is quite willing to support passenger rail - just so long as it isn't Amtrak!

Now I know and accept my earlier skepticism regarding AAF/Brightline (let's skip the Virgin Rail part) that it was a ploy to sell the FEC to the State proved mistaken, and that during the Disneyland Ride period, I had eight very enjoyable joyrides on it. So far as what's ahead "Que Sera Sera".

I do find it interesting Amtrak lists Florida in its connect US plan - do they really think they have a chance of competing with brightline with a corridor along the current much slower route or are they betting on brightline’s investors to pull out and Amtrak take over the service as a state supported corridor - seems to be a more likely outcome would be that the state would just send subsidies to brightline.

Brightline's land in central Florida is leased, and there's not much to it. Maybe the Tampa station could be a real estate development.

Amtrak has three trains a day to FLA. The Autotrain makes money, perhaps, and Lorton is the second busiest station in Virginia. All the Amtrak FLA trains suffer from constant delays in the South. I just don't know if CSX ever shunts a freight for Amtrak these days. The enforcement provisions were stripped out of the infrastructure law. The worst delays seem to be just north of Savannah.