bdawe wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:58 pm
TBF, if the average revenue-per-seat doesn't fall with this new order, clearly Amtrak didn't order enough trains
This is something I've been wondering about as well.
Acela has had nearly flat growth for a very long time now almost certainly due to near constant sellouts. Amtrak has been making tweaks here and there around the edges of the schedule. As memory serves they've managed to eke out about 1% growth every year for quite some time. Given the fixed supply of trainsets this implies ever so slightly higher utilization rates every year. Numbers that a 1950s passenger traffic manager would die for. Seems simple at face value but it's actually an extraordinary example of revenue and yield management with a level of precision that has few precedents in North American passenger rail service.
Although it seems unlikely I have to admit to being curious if some kind of really wild "sold out as soon as it's on sale" scenario plays out. I'm sure there will be passengers who won't pay any attention at all. One day there will just be more departures available for a certain travel date and they won't sell out as quickly as they usually do.
On the other hand ... I can easily imagine a situation where the constantly sold out status deters travelers who don't know far ahead of time about their trips. The real headline that is magic for Amtrak might not be so much "new trainsets" as "more seats at more times" i.e. "more convenient than ever".
That is a message that Amtrak hasn't been able to convey about
Acela in many years. I think the market is ready for it and when word gets out I think there is a legitimate chance we could see a veritable "stampede to the platform".