Highball wrote:Bus left Augusta with 4 people, including the driver ..... gee, how does that equate with the " passenger miles / gallon " efficiency scenario, even though the bus picked up some passengers at the P.T.C. The Augusta - South Station trip is carded for 3 1/2 hours and as I said above, that is usually the peak of my tolerance travel time on a bus, regardless of what amenities it offers.
How many more than 4 people would a "comfortable" 300 seat train attract? 2? 4? Call the bus 10% full (4 out of a luxury 40) . An Augusta train would have to attract 30 people (a 7-fold increase in ridership) just to claw its way to 10% full. That just isn't going to happen. There aren't 7 people who are holding out for a train for every 1 that is making do with the bus today. I might give you 1-to-1 or 2-to-1 "must have train" but it ain't more than 3-fold. So a train would run even emptier than the bus you saw.
Also, that bus ran without having to play roulette with $100million in track improvements. For bascially $10,000 a bus can probe for ridership for a season and when it finds only 4 per trip, the solution is not to place a bet 10,000x bigger on track improvements in the crazy hope that you''ll get a 7x bump in ridership by offering a train.
The answer would be to keep placing $10,000 bets. Even 100 bets on bus costs just $1m... 100x less than an all-chips on number 28 roulette bet on rail.
Also, while Auburn/Lewiston is 60,000 people and seems big by Maine standards, it is still marginal (and all other cities are "small") by intercity trip standards. How many of 60,000 people make a trip each day to Portland? Only about 30,000 have jobs. Many are kids or have good reasons to stay at home a lot. 3,000? 300? And what share of them are so unhappy with their drive (or car-free) that they'd take *any* mass transit? 150? If 150, far better to run 6 60 passenger buses throughout the day (30% full?) than try to get them all to conform their lives to a trip or two on a 300 seat train. BRU has basically proved this.