Hampton Roads/Norfolk/Newport News NE Regional Service

Gentlemen, this is getting a bit far afield for this topic, but your views on airline service to Roanoke are a little wacky. Just a few weeks ago you were chortling that USAir's discontinuance of direct of Roanoke-LGA service was a sign of the triumph of passenger rail? (Personally, I didn't quite understand why people were forgoing flying to New York today because they could take a train four years from now, but ...). Now, AA's institution of new service to Roanoke (possibly direct from New York) is interpreted as -- wait for it --a sign of the triumph of passenger rail. (Have the folks in Roanoke changed their mind, and decided not to wait for the train after all?). Time to brush up on your Nassim Taleb. Given that there such things as connecting flights, the existence vel non of direct flights from Roanoke to New York tells you pretty much nothing about the number of people who want to fly from Roanoke to New York.

On one point, you are correct: the primary market for Amtrak Virginia is service to Washington, and this likely will be true for Roanoke service as well. Anecdotally, I'd put the turnover at WAS and ALX for the Virginia trains that I've ridden at around 75%. The reason that NYP is not a bigger market for Amtrak Virginia is that it takes too long compared with flying (even with a connection). And the airlines haven't big on serving travelers from Washington to Virginia locations for some time because it's tough to operate planes (especially jets) economically over the short distances. Not really a new phenomenon.

Now, as to changes in AA service to NC, Fayetteville is served by the Meteor and Palmetto, neither of which will get you to DC quickly, and the Meteor rumbles through (both nb and sb in the wee hours). I'll grant you that a few more will opt for the Palmetto, but I suspect most current air passengers will opt for a connecting flight instead. As for Jacksonville and Wilmington, the Ambuses connect to the Palmetto at Wilson, not the Carolinian. And do you really think that the folks who were ponying up the money for (I'm betting) pretty expensive airplane tickets to DC are suddenly going to think that a 3-4 hour bus ride to Wilson, where additional 5.5 train ride to DC awaits them, is an attractive proposition?

Station Aficionado wrote:And do you really think that the folks who were ponying up the money for (I'm betting) pretty expensive airplane tickets to DC are suddenly going to think that a 3-4 hour bus ride to Wilson, where additional 5.5 train ride to DC awaits them, is an attractive proposition?

At least on this point I would clarify that any travelers previously making reservations far in advance and receiving the consequent potential discounts will now have no such option at all and are much stronger candidates for train service. Jacksonville in particular has a significant population of military travelers who would be likely candidates for a switch. I saw this at least in part because of the inconvenience associated with travel to KRDU and the associated security delays.

Regardless, it would appear that NC-WAS may be the big winner and by corollary so would VA-WAS due to displacement of passengers onto VA terminating Northeast Regional service.

Station Aficionado wrote:Now, AA's institution of new service to Roanoke (possibly direct from New York) is interpreted as -- wait for it --a sign of the triumph of passenger rail. (Have the folks in Roanoke changed their mind, and decided not to wait for the train after all?). Time to brush up on your Nassim Taleb. Given that there such things as connecting flights, the existence vel non of direct flights from Roanoke to New York tells you pretty much nothing about the number of people who want to fly from Roanoke to New York.

Love Taleb and have read his first two books more than once. I thought my post was clear in saying the balance is shifting: Amtrak's competitive position into WAS is strengthening, and its competitive position into PHL and NYC is weakening

You are incorrect in asserting that the presence of nonstops tells you nothing. Nonstops are strongly correlated with market size (esp if measured in $). Nonstops are preferred about 40:1 vs connections and so nonstops have a series of unique interactions when they are introduced (which the airlines model in advance). Airlines let market-sizes and service interact. Nonstops are partly reactive (designed to steal demand that is suggested by use of connections), and partly pro-active (stimulative) since some marginal trips that would otherwise "not worked" now will work.

The introduction of nonstops is a signal that the airline thinks they have or want the upper hand in the market. Here the interesting thing is how AA is moving assets to LGA, and half of the destinations are in Virginia. Virginia-NYP is a good travel markett and Amtrak will be hurt if airlines focus on it. That "hurt" will be seen in open seats south of WAS. Amtrak will move to fill those seats with "locals", which will solidify its position in the WAS-Virginia market.

I have not addressed NC markets because those are still so long and thin as to be not-competitive with airlines...that and that they're OT here

With the exception of the Palmetto, all of the Amtrak trains from New York to Richmond, Charlottesville, Roanoke and Norfolk are trips longer than 6 hours. American apparently thinks that they can compete profitably when the rail alternative is more than 6 hours. In the Philadelphia to Boston market, the Acela can do the trip in just over 5 hours and airlines have struggled. Southwest came and went. The only ones left with direct flights are US Airways and Jet Blue.

The conclusion I come to is that for rail trips of less than 5 hours, passengers prefer the train. For rail trips longer than 6 hours, passengers would rather fly. And for rail trips of 5-6 hours, price is the most important consideration.

Arlington wrote:I have not addressed NC markets because those are still so long and thin as to be not-competitive with airlines...that and that they're OT here

I have cross posted to the Amtrak NCDOT thread for further discussion there.

Returning to the discussion of railroading, does anybody have photographic or other useful documentation on the very recent track changes on Norfolk Southern around Petersburg?

I know about BX interlocking on CSX and its connection to Crater on NS, and I think Walnut Hill went away with that addition.

But now I'm told that on NS:

- Poe has been relocated or changed; if so, how?

- New Bohemia is no longer an intermediate signal at Rives Road, it's now a double crossover moved up to somewhere around the Wagner overpass (milepost?)

- What exactly is the layout of tracks around the auto ramp yard east of Poe? Google Maps satellite photos are older than these changes, even some Street View images from August 2013 taken on the Wagner overpass do not show the new New Bohemia double crossovers.

- A new siding that is going in between Rives Road and the Food Lion warehouse to accommodate a CSX trash train interchange

- Any other changes?

Some or all of these are ostensibly to permit better flow of these thousands of daily passenger moves. Or they could be a way for NS to get desired upgrades at taxpayer expense. Either way, I'm curious about updating my records to reflect the very latest track layouts, so useful input is welcomed by me.

Thanks!

Ridership at Staples Mill will be helped by nearly 5 new acres of land being acquired by the state that will serve as parking and as a taxi/bus area.

http://www.henricocitizen.com/news/arti ... ogress0207" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Smart that they acquired all the parcels on the north side of the station, up to Bremmer Blvd--acquiring those parcels also gets access to the existing traffic light there (which probably saves $300k that you'd spend adding a signalized station entrance)

This is excellent news and almost certainly will result in noticeable increases in ridership from Richmond on all trains. Five acres is a very substantial addition probably as much as 500+ new spaces. If they're all used every work day (250 days) that could be ~125,000+ new riders per year at that station alone. Long term and overnight parking use will moderate those numbers but on average I think that's a reasonable figure.

Less good news is the apparent fact that the wait for expanded service in Norfolk will be very long. I noticed the following on the website of the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization:

• Norfolk Service Expansion
o Funds are scheduled to be programmed in FY 2016-2018 for trains 2 and 3, with service starting in year 2022.

http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/02131 ... Agenda.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well, I guess I'd rather see a city with no trains (like Roanoke) get one train before a city that just got one train gets another. But yeah, that's a long wait! Looking at the map, that Petersburg - Suffolk stretch looks arrow straight. Man, that'd be perfect for some 110 mph running!

The positive to the long wait for additional service in Norfolk is that by the time it happens the demand will be there and other facilities along that route will be much improved as well.

JimB wrote:Less good news is the apparent fact that the wait for expanded service in Norfolk will be very long. I noticed the following on the website of the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization:

• Norfolk Service Expansion
o Funds are scheduled to be programmed in FY 2016-2018 for trains 2 and 3, with service starting in year 2022.

http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/02131 ... Agenda.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Isn't the real problem capacity (slots) on the bridge between crystal city and DC? That takes a new bridge to fix.

Arlington wrote:

JimB wrote:Less good news is the apparent fact that the wait for expanded service in Norfolk will be very long. I noticed the following on the website of the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization:

• Norfolk Service Expansion
o Funds are scheduled to be programmed in FY 2016-2018 for trains 2 and 3, with service starting in year 2022.

http://www.hrtpo.org/uploads/docs/02131 ... Agenda.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Isn't the real problem capacity (slots) on the bridge between crystal city and DC? That takes a new bridge to fix.

No, the bottleneck for the service expansion to Norfolk is the single track bridge across the Appomattox river. I think most of the $80 million that is in the Six Year Improvement Plan in FY16-FY18 for adding 2 trains to Norfolk is for a 2nd bridge or track across the Appomattox, but I have not seen any details.

The 2022 date was in the plans for the 2 additional daily trains to Norfolk before VA passed its transportation funding bill which provides direct funding for passenger rail from the state sales tax. The Hampton Roads report may be using the 2022 date because a new 3 trains a day service projected date and the details of when the bridge will be complete has not yet been agreed to with CSX.

The VRE long range capital spending planning document has a $1 billion placeholder price for the Long Bridge replacement, but that ballpark price is reportedly for the more expensive option for the replacement bridge with adjacent mixed streetcar and road lanes next to the 4 tracks. The reported ballpark price for a 4 track Long bridge alternative is in the more affordable $500 to $600 million range. The Long Bridge replacement study website has diagrams of the current alternatives under consideration.

could you split a train south of the bridge?

Anyone know the deal with train #78? I didn't know it was a scheduled run, but I saw it on the system tracker and I believe it is the deadhead move that occurs between Newport News and Richmond on Friday evenings repositioning #95's equipment, before an additional set comes down the peninsula behind train #95 as train #83. However, seeing a train # assigned and having it appear on the tracker made me wonder if it's a revenue run. It doesn't stop at Williamsburg. It doesn't seem to appear on the printed timetable and it didn't show up on the Amtrak site when I punched in Newport News to Richmond for a Friday reservation.