John - I concur on both the questionable use of overly optimistic land use projections and that the Silver Line will generate boardings headed toward Tysons in a sizable amount.
Question to John, and everyone - what do you make of:
1) scenario A and B and the creation of "loops" through the core? From a purely station location perspective, A seems to be doubling down on established areas (which have overcrowding admittedly) and neglecting up and coming areas and non-served areas. This, in my mind, would be a huge loss of potential because if a new downtime line is ever built, it would be decades before another line is built. Thus under served/non-served areas would continue in that status. Further, I think the loss of direct Yellow service at L'Enfant (though they're providing a walkway) would hurt the VA-MD connection by adding further steps between the two and, moreover, the loss of the Yellow line northwards to at least Mt. Vernon seems unwise. Lastly, what would prompt a station at East Potomac Golf Course? If that entire "island" were redeveloped into housing and commercial space, then I can see a need for a station. But otherwise I would have to think it would be completely underused.
2) scenarios A and B actually preempted a post I was contemplating. I had been thinking about the merits of a new underground line in DC that would be completely located within the core, totally separate from the other lines but connected at key terminals with walkways, and designed as a loop. This would be a truly "subway" line, with smaller headways, maybe 24 hour service, and less grandiose stations. It would look like scenario B, but pushed further east and not crossing into VA. This type of line would "throw a bone" to the concept that DC is a city, and needs a city-style subway rather than commuter-style transit. It would also, I imagine, increase the connectivity of the core and lessen the demands on the system (i.e. the commuter transit part) for intra-core trips.
3) scenario C. Boy where do I start with this one. Per the post, this option provided the best means of getting people into/out of the core. I see this logic, since it separates Blue/Yellow and thus creates more room on Silver/Orange and Green, and also creates a whole new Orange/Silver express line. It's the express line that raises a whole host of questions and I did not see any answers in the post of pdf. For instance, from where to where is the line express? Does it run express from Rosslyn to Tysons? McLean? Wiehle? A big problem I see is that it then joins up with the new B/Y lines, so we would again have 4 lines sharing a track downtown and any emergency singletracking would back up not just the regular B/Y lines, but also the express lines into the core, absent a third track or very good pocket track locations. In the end, it's almost silly to think too much about scenario C, since I cannot imagine it ever being built due to the cost of an express line from Rosslyn to the Tysons area, all of which would need to be underground I imagine. I think the best "express" proposal is John's proposal for a Tysons bypass that would shorten the trip to/from Dulles. John - can that bypass still be built once the Silver line is up and running as planned?
4) scenario D. I like the new M street Blue line, but it seems odd to have it end at Union station without going further east/north east into under served areas. I like the Yellow line to Thomas Circle for purely personal reasons, but wonder again whether it makes sense to end the line at that point and leave areas to the north under served. The best thing about D are the streetcar/light rail options, but none of that is really Metro.
Lastly, is the Red line really in need of no further work as envisioned by this project? And by that I mean is there no large capital project that would make sense for the Red line by 2040? The crowding data provided in the post shows that 8-car trains take care of the Red line for decades to come. I suppose there just is not as much growth on the Red line as is projected in VA.....
Living in Broadlands, VA; Working at Half & L SE, DC.