• Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

  • This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
    Websites: Current Brightline
    Virgin USA
    Virgin UK
This is a forum for all operations, both current and planned, of Brightline, formerly All Aboard Florida and Virgin Trains USA:
Websites: Current Brightline
Virgin USA
Virgin UK

Moderator: CRail

  by bostontrainguy
 
Ridgefielder wrote:Think about it. If the NIMBYs of Upton, Mass. were unable to prevent the resuscitation of the completely moribund Grafton & Upton-- a railroad that had been unused for so long that trees were growing in the gauge-- then the NIMBYs of Delray Beach are going to have zero chance of shutting down Brightline, which operates over a railroad that was already hosting multiple freight trains a day.
Hell, people in Massachusetts built driveways right over the tracks.

But stupid municipalities are still wasting their money:
https://www.journal-topics.com/articles ... expansion/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
  by Jeff Smith
 
PTC? http://cbs12.com/news/cbs12-news-invest ... technology" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
...According to a letter obtained from the Federal Railroad Administration, the FRA is “concerned” that the railroad “will not be able” to meet the deadline to install all PTC hardware and to meet other criteria by the end of the year. Records show the railroad has only installed 65 percent of the hardware.

Brightline told CBS12 last December that it anticipated PTC would be operational in advance of the 2018 deadline.

A spokesperson for Brightline told CBS12 News late Monday afternoon that the railroad is installing PTC and uses Automatic Train Control which has many of the same features.
  by Bonevalleyrailfan
 
The monthly board meeting of SFRTA (TriRail) on April 28 had some additional details on the PTC installation/testing/approval schedule. I can only assume that the information is pretty accurate as SFRTA/FECR/AAF hold regular meetings on the PTC project. Basically, field testing is to take place between now and end of August. AAF will start their Revenue Service Demonstration (RSD) in September and plan to have that done by end of 2018. Once that is successfully completed, they can apply for an extension from the FRA to complete the PTC installation. AAF/FECR plans to submit their PTC Safety Plan at the first of the year. Then summer of 2019 TriRail can complete their RSD and begin revenue service into MiamiCentral by October 2019.

I am attaching two relevant screenshots from the April Meeting Agenda document that is on the SFRTA website.
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Last edited by Jeff Smith on Thu May 10, 2018 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total. Reason: Removed immediately preceding post quote
  by Gilbert B Norman
 
Mr. Bone Valley, what correlation, if any, does this timeline have regarding when AAF will start revenue service at Miami Central?
  by Bonevalleyrailfan
 
Gilbert B Norman wrote:Mr. Bone Valley, what correlation, if any, does this timeline have regarding when AAF will start revenue service at Miami Central?
None at all if MiamiCentral service starts in 2018. If service to MiamiCentral were to start in 2019, it might be considered new service requiring fully certified PTC on the first day?

FECR/AAF have to either have PTC fully implemented by end of 2018 or obtain an extension by passing the RSD test. Since MiamiCentral is coming online in a matter of weeks, and not after the first of 2019, revenue service to MiamiCentral can begin anytime without additional requirements. TriRail is not able to start their new service until late 2019 because FECR/AAF must get their part done first. Then TriRail can start their field qualification tests next summer.

One question I have is how does FECR owning the tracks impact the whole PTC project? And is TriRail considered a tenant on the route? AAF seems to have more control over the route through agreements with FECR than does TriRail. That might be why TriRail has to wait until after FECR/AAF are certified. Having three operators involved must add a lot of complicating factors to the mix!
  by Noel Weaver
 
As I understand the situation before Tri-Rail can operate over FEC tracks in to Miami Central all of their locomotives and cab cars will have to be fully equipped with FEC cab signals and train control. To the best of my knowledge this has not happened as of yet. Local rumors still have it before the end of this month for Brightline to be running to Miami Central.
Noel Weaver
Last edited by Noel Weaver on Thu May 10, 2018 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
  by Bonevalleyrailfan
 
Mr. Weaver, perhaps this screenshot could help in understanding the plans for TriRail. I am assuming the yearly quarters it references are for 2019. That would match the other slide I presented earlier that has TriRail service starting in Q4. And testing complete in Q3.
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  by Arlington
 
Gilbert B Norman wrote:For the record, I am not opposed to the AAF initiative, I am just skeptical of its financial viability
What is the test of "financial viability" for a building's elevators and escalators considered as a separate business? Or what is the "financial viability" of a building's parking garage or atrium? Or of a grassy plaza in front of a downtown skyscraper?

Silly question, right? Similarly it is absurd to separate Brightline out as a line-item, when, in reality, it is part of an integrated real estate development project that spans three downtowns.

Or at least allow that Fortress/FEC may have "gifted" all the capital costs to Brightline, and may be making only minimal demands as far as fares-covering-ops are concerned (Fortress might have deemed that it was worth it to donate all ROW, Stations, and Rolling Stock as part its real business of turning empty lots in bad neighborhoods into premium, central, skyscrapers)..Between its use by FEC and as an "access amenity" for Tri-Rail, how much of the ROW needs to be allocated to BL and counted against its viability? Maybe Fortress has reckoned that it was all given away free to BL.

Parking garages charge money, which may or may not be a "market rate", but do they return 100% of their capital costs? Demanding shareholders want to know!...not. Really, a building owner typically happy that the garage cover its operating costs because the garage structure itself is never valued apart from they way it makes the whole building economically viable. Or, when unable to charge, some places give away structured parking absolutely free, and clearly lose money on the parking. Does that mean it was a bad idea to build the parking or that the parking is "not viable"...does it mean the garage was a mistake or should be shut down? You see that's an absurd question to ask in isolation, even for a large, expensive piece of infrastructure like a multi-level parking garage, right?

Elevators and Escalators are treated by many as a fun and free ride (even though Disney includes low speed rides, both vertical and horizontal in the price of admission). Kids love 'em! Elevator spotters make videos of their rides and rate their experience. Does the fact that some people ride the elevators for fun and free undercut the business case that they're adding value--boosting the value of the building they're installed in? It does not. Here again, it would be absurd to isolate a building system and then ask if it were "economically viable"

Or when a big developer makes improvements to the surrounding neighborhood with a public atrium, donating a park, or assuming the costs of local landscaping, sanitation, and security, do we isolate those and demand that they be "economically viable"? Never.

So stop tearing out Brightline as a line-item from what is CLEARLY an integrated real estate development SYSTEM.

1) The STATIONS function like a park or plaza...an amenity to be enjoyed by tenants, enhance a feeling of neighborhood and safety, and to build visitorship and foot traffic. It is an amenity, a landmark, a distinctive place-making, brand-building set of vertical and horizontal slabs, no different than any other central amenity that developments might choose. We don't demand that a courtyard fountain show "viability" so stop demanding it of the station areas. Fortress could validly chose to give away its station's incremental costs "for free" to its neighbors and rail operators, and it wouldn't be for us to judge.

2) The TRACKS & SIGNALS function like a parking garage or dedicated access road...allowing "bring your own vehicle" access to both the owner and visitors (Tri-Rail, we hope) who will "visit" the property with their vehicle and increase its perceived convenience and accessibility. We don't separately demand "viability" of parking garages or entrance roads, so stop demanding it of the rails--Fortress likely hasn't.

3) The ROLLING STOCK functions like elevators, escalators, or proprietary "campus shuttles" do Their job is to move people whose primary value is as tenants or visitors. We don't demand that the elevators in a 100 story-tall building be "economically viable" (though sometimes the ones to the "Skydeck" are able to charge tourists, everybody else just flashes a badge to use all the others). So don't demand that the Brightline rolling operation do much more than an elevator or campus shuttle would--Fortress likely hasn't.

This obsession with tearing out the circulatory system, ripping it from the rest of the body, and saying "hmmm...I bet this isn't viable" is absurd and has got to stop.
Last edited by Arlington on Fri May 11, 2018 10:44 am, edited 6 times in total.
  by Noel Weaver
 
Friday, May 11th, that's today Brightline is running a VIP train into Miami Central this morning. I'll try to provide a link later.
It won't be long now.
Noel Weaver
  by Erie-Lackawanna
 
Arlington wrote:What is the test of "financial viability" for a building's elevators and escalators considered as a separate business? Or what is the "financial viability" of a building's parking garage or atrium? Or of a grassy plaza in front of a downtown skyscraper?

<snip>
Right on the mark. Your piece shows excellent thinking and is very well-written. Nice job.

Jim
  by Erie-Lackawanna
 
The Sun-Sentinel just posted an article stating that Brightline has announced service commencing to MiamiCentral on May 19.

Jim
  by Jeff Smith
 
Thanks for the heads up!: www.sun-sentinel.com
Brightline train service to Miami set to begin next weekend

The long-anticipated service to Miami by the Brightline system's higher-speed trains will begin Saturday, May 19, officials said today.

The announcement was made after local politicians, civic leaders and Brightline executives rode a train to the MiamiCentral station Friday morning.

We took the ride, too, from Fort Lauderdale into Miami and filmed a webcast prior to a press conference announcing the Miami service date which was followed by a tour of the new MiamiCentral station.

Test runs between Fort Lauderdale and Miami have been going on since March 29 to check railroad crossing safety and travel times among other things.
...
  by Jeff Smith
 
Station: www.miamiherald.com

Fair-use:
We took a peek at the new Brightline station in downtown Miami — service coming soon
...
Located at 600 NW First Ave., the downtown terminus is — for now — just one component of what Brightline parent company, Florida East Coast Railway Industries, which owns the 11-acre MiamiCentral, expects to be "the new hub for all things transportation, leisure and business." The site spans six blocks between Northwest Third and Eighth streets.

Once completed, the mixed-use development will include large swaths of retail space — including a food hall and a grocery store — two office buildings and 800-plus residential units. One office building, Three MiamiCentral, was completed in February, while a second one — Two MiamiCentral — will have tenants moving in this summer. Brightline passengers can park their cars at a newly built garage nearby.

By 2019, Brightline will share a 50-foot platform with Tri-Rail at MiamiCentral. Further into the future — a MiamiCentral spokeswoman couldn't say when — crews will build a sky bridge directly into the Miami-Dade Government Center Metrorail and Metromover stations.
...
  by Arlington
 
Erie-Lackawanna wrote:The Sun-Sentinel just posted an article stating that Brightline has announced service commencing to MiamiCentral on May 19.
Meanwhile on March 30th...
Gilbert B Norman wrote:Let's not pop the champagne corks yet.. "opening day" will be noticeably closer to Xmas than Easter....
after an "intro", MCS-WP, each way $45 Coach, $70 Business...
But listen to me "with a grain of salt"; I've been wrong about the whole initiative to date.
Okey Dokey:

Easter to May 19 = 48 days
May 19 to Xmas = 220 days

Those $45 ~ $70 fares look like they're designed to pay back all kinds of capital costs that I don't think BL will be asked to pay, if its capital costs were considered part of the Fortress line item labeled "Site Preparation and Neighborhood Transformation" or "Podium / Foundation" or "Building Access" (see treatise, above). If "Main Street Trollies" can operate for $1 and still please their property/retail backers, I don't see why BL fares shouldn't stay in the low-mid double digits.

I know that Mr Norman is a very smart man, highly capable of doing financial analysis. To the extent that he's not getting good results, I'd say it is a faulty mental model, not a processing problem. The errors seem rooted in a misconception (and ahistorical view) of how railroads were economically viable. I believe that with patient explanation, we will all see that every "economically viable" railroad, ever, was part of a system of both capital subsidies and economic recapture, just like Brightline.

The capital subsidies came as land grants, real estate speculation, resource-extraction deals, or by inheriting free capital stock via bankruptcy of "the prior owners". For Brightline, call it a very traditional mix of borrowing against future real estate values and cheap long-depreciated sites, along with a cross-subsidy to/from FEC freight ops.

Economic recapture for BL is a mix of making FEC run better and keeping rents higher on the real estate.

I predict fares will stay about as they are, priced to pay ops. Fortress might even like to take depreciation losses on the rolling stock, rather than see fares, for now, cover them.
Last edited by Arlington on Fri May 11, 2018 12:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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