Mr. Weaver et al, again every time I post material around here suggesting skepticism of the AAF initiative, some here think I'm passing around videos of my whacking baby seals at a PETA convention!
For the record, I am not opposed to the AAF initiative, I am just skeptical of its financial viability,
I have to commend them for being able to squash the mindless opposition particularly from the Treasure Coast jurisdictions, but considering how passenger train initiatives have been shelved account Bennie the Bat, Woodsy Owl, Tuffy the Turtle, and who knows who else. I have never suggested that any fault beyond "being there" can be attributed to the fatalities that have occurred arising from AAF operations, but the fact remains that until such time that AAF provides meaningful transportation beyond "Disneyland rides on the cheap", some party perceiving injury could assert the legal Public Nuisance standard.
Now will commencing service Miami-West Palm start to generate meaningful service used by passengers for purposes other than a joyride and paying a "market rate" fare ($50 Coach; $65 Business each way is "market" to me) to ride? I'm certain that ridership will substantially increase and further increase as Miami Central and even into Overtown (immediately West of MCS) is developed. Will this be sufficient to make the venture profitable? We will never know, as privately held AAF is not required to make public disclosure of anything.
Now to build out to McCoy; while I think the latest challenge from CARE regarding propriety of AAF accessing Private Activity Bonds is without foundation, there is no implicit guarantee of payment by any party beyond the issuer. A major bond rating agency, Fitch, has determined that any issue by AAF is deemed "not of investment grade", or otherwise known as "junk". The debt service on these bonds could well be in excess of what was allowed for in their Business Plan.
Ridership, profitability, again, short of tapping the public trough for assistance, we'll never know. We definitely will never know to what extent AAF has contributed to both occupancy and rental rates at Miami Central and any other holdings FECI has or contemplates in any of the Tri-County Gold Coast areas.