How much new service is coming? And how?

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Local funding means any level below Federal. In.most cases that means State, but it could also mean a regional or multi-state agency.

I understood that, Mr. Norman, but was wondering whether in this case you mean capital or operational funding (or both.) That is, how much of the check do you think the locals will have to pick up at first, even if they later pass parts to the Feds a la CMAQ funding?

What happens here is basically what the states involved are willing to fund. I doubt if any sort of financial help will come from the Federal Government with the present political situation in DC. The states that are willing to put up some funds could end up with corridor type daytime service between in state cities that are a decent train apart. Roanoke, Virginia is a good example of a state that is willing to fund a decent corridor type service over a reasonable distance and I think this will work quite well. I don't hold much hope for New Orleans - Orlando with states that have for the most part shown little enthusiasm for financial support for passenger trains. I doubt if it will happen here. The distance is too long for a decent daytime type corridor train without an early morning departure and a late evening arrival. Some of the route is not even equipped with automatic signals, who is going to pay for the upgrades, I don't think the states that this route runs through will show much if any financial support so I suspect that nothing worthwhile will happen here. I don't think overnight trains have any future either except MAYBE the Montrealer and not even sure about that one. I think a Friday NB and Sunday SB could work but I doubt if there is enough potential for an overnight service on a daily basis. The states that have come up with funds for trains have proven that it can be money well spent and they are quite successful, the problem is that there are not enough state governments that feel this way and in some states it would not work well anyway. In short, I don't look for much if any worthwhile expansion anytime soon. Roanoke will happen but anything else is a big question mark.
Noel Weaver

Noel Weaver wrote:I don't hold much hope for New Orleans - Orlando with states that have for the most part shown little enthusiasm for financial support for passenger trains.

The proposed New Orleans to Orlando extension of the City of New Orleans will be a long-distance route, and thus federally funded. Only the Mobile-New Orleans 'day' train requires state financial support.

Greg Moore wrote:Ok, ... a speculation type discussion ... how much new service Amtrak seems to be looking at. And it's quite impressive. Some seems more definite than others, but there seems to be a lot coming. ...

For example, the expanded Virginia service appears to be a definite.
And now we've got hints (only that) of a restored Montrealer.
And there's discussion of re-introducing the Sunset East.
And an additional Twin-Cities/Chicago train.
And I know there were plans (still stalled I think) for expanded service to the Quad Cities.
Oh and some talk about an expanded Heartland Flyer.

... trying to focus on routes that actually appear to have a chance ... immediate, likely improvements.

Isn't Vermont already spending money on extending the Ethan Allen from Rutland to Burlington, Vermont's 200,000-population big city? I expect they'll see that thru, because in passenger rail, Vermont gets it done. (Same applies to extending the Vermonter, and meanwhile the upgrades New Haven-Hartford-Springfield will kick in around the first of 2018.) Extending the Adirondack and the Vermonter will require Canada to invest in upgrading that bit of track from the border. So it's coming but never as soon as we would hope.

Virginia plans to have trains in Roanoke from October. Like Vermont, Virginia gets it done. A second frequency Norfolk-Richmond should come soon, too. Lots of money right now going into Acca yard and thereabouts to speed up all trains thru Richmond. (Also, a stretch of track near Quantico got a few million from the Stimulus for new bridges, triple or quad tracking, etc to save up to 10 minutes. Winners from a faster trip time will include the Autotrain, the Silver Star, the Silver Meteor, the Palmetto, and the Carolinian, as well as the Richmond and Tidewater trains.) Virginia has already lined up with CSX the Potomac Long Bridge slot for that second Norfolk train. In fact, Virginia holds still another new slot over the Potomac, probably for another frequency Lynchburg-D.C. Since we're being hard core realistic here, I'll admit I don't know where or when for sure.

The Piedmont Corridor is being upgraded to save some minutes, and a new early morning frequency each way Raleigh-Charlotte should be added next year. (Gaining more business riders helps ridership, but greatly helps the trains' political climate, as legislators consider business people more important than other riders.)

A new Gulf Coast train New Orleans-Orlando is liked by everyone but CSX. Mississippi Senators Roger Wicker and Thad Cochran will have to work on CSX to get real about it. I think they can do that.

CHI-Twin Cities is overdue and it's been studied to death. But speaking of death, the Minnesota legislature is now infested with haters. So good luck on that one.

Maybe the haters in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc will calm down now that passenger rail is no longer one of Obama's babies. Change in attitude may come after Illinois and Michigan start running their new Stimulus-funded 110-mph services, St Louis-Joliet (almost CHI) and Kalamazoo-Dearborn (almost Detroit) later this year. No added frequencies, and no higher-capacity bi-level cars, but service "about an hour" faster CHI-St Louis and "about 40 minutes faster" CHI-Detroit should sell a lot of tickets. Then we could see voters in neighboring states asking, Why can't we have fast trains like they do in Michigan and Illinois?

The Quad Cities line was much delayed by the Illinois budget impasse. With that resolved for now, construction can begin again. Pity is that each of the Midwest routes was supposed to support the others, so for example, the new Quad Cities route will some day feed passengers to cities on the Lincoln service, to stations on the Wolverines route, to Champaign and Carbondale, as well as to the Amtrak national system. Likewise the train from Dubuque and Rockford would feed other trains at CHI, but that's on nobody's hot list now.

In September, the Seattle-Portland trunk line of the Cascades route should go from 4 Talgos + the Starlight to 6 Talgos + the Starlight. This will allow an early morning departure arriving by 9:30 a.m., and late day return, in each direction between the end point cities, aiming to attract business day-trippers.

In June 2016 the San Joaquins added a 7th frequency; in October the Pacific Surfliner L.A.-San Diego added an umpteenth frequency. So Amtrak California will grow. If the spare Talgos from Wisconsin will work for the Pacific Surfliner, that would soon add another frequency L.A.-Santa Barbera-San Luis Obispo

Some good money was invested in many miles of new signals south of Albany, new tracks and platforms at Albany station, and double-track for about 17 miles west of Albany. Nobody has forecast any minutes cut from schedules, but simply melting away some padding could help one or more of the trains using this vital stretch: the Lake Shore Ltd., the Ethan Allen, the Adirondack, the Maple Leaf, the several Empire Corridor trains ...

So, yeah, it looks like a very good year coming up. Amtrak's Fiscal Year 2018 could easily have a half million, or even a million, more riders than this year will see.

I did not mention the bright states and for sure both Vermont and Virginia fit. Ditto for the tbree west coast states and several others as well. Orlando - New Orleans does not make it for several reasons; the resistance of owner CSX is but one thing, a fair part of the route is not signaled meaning not over 59 MPH while traffic on nearby I-10 runs by at 70 or more MPH, the distance will make it nearly impossible to do this trip on a reasonable daytime schedule just between Jacksonville and New Orleans to say nothing of adding the miles to Orlando. The only practical way to run service here is a daytime train on a daily schedule. To restore any sort of train on the old set up of three overnight trains a week would be absolutely ridiculous with ridership on this stretch being as low as single figures many nights. There are a number of places where would serve a better purpose than they would here. Florida needs trains but not this one.
Noel Weaver

Noel Weaver wrote:Orlando - New Orleans does not make it for several reasons; the resistance of owner CSX is but one thing, a fair part of the route is not signaled meaning not over 59 MPH while traffic on nearby I-10 runs by at 70 or more MPH, the distance will make it nearly impossible to do this trip on a reasonable daytime schedule just between Jacksonville and New Orleans to say nothing of adding the miles to Orlando. The only practical way to run service here is a daytime train on a daily schedule. To restore any sort of train on the old set up of three overnight trains a week would be absolutely ridiculous with ridership on this stretch being as low as single figures many nights. There are a number of places where would serve a better purpose than they would here. Florida needs trains but not this one.
Noel Weaver

None of the proposals or alternatives studied for Gulf Coast Service involve either a daytime schedule or tri-weekly operation. Again, the proposal is for a daily extension (overnight to Florida) of the City of New Orleans to Orlando. Absent recent CSX intransigence, the train may have been in operation later this year.

Woody: I worked in the MN Capitol, and our legislators are often cretins Their constituents responded strongly to Bernie's and Trump's infrastructure proposals though, and MnDOT's plan expressly includes the Cities, suburbs, and outstate towns (the St. Cloud extension is a great idea, politically.) Keep an eye on Gov. Dayton's FY 2018 capital budget.

Not sure about Wisconsin politics right now, any posters there care to comment?

Not really an expansion, but the passing siding north of Portland is scheduled to start construction this fall. Once that is done, all Downeaster runs will start and end at Brunswick.

a stretch of track near Quantico got a few million from the Stimulus for new bridges, triple or quad tracking, etc to save up to 10 minutes

I wish it would make the trains faster, but it won't. I verified at public meetings about the DC-Richmond "high speed rail" project that the 10 miles (originally planned to be 11) of triple tracking now under construction north and south of Quantico will remain at 70 mph. The track will not even be returned to the pre-Amtrak level of 79 mph.

I will be absolutely shocked if anything happens between Orlando and Jacksonville this year 2017, not very likely next year either.
As for Washington - Richmond I don't think the top speed on this line was ever higher than 70 MPH for passenger, not in any of the timetables in my collection anyway.
Noel Weaver

Literalman wrote:

a stretch of track near Quantico got a few million from the Stimulus for new bridges, triple or quad tracking, etc to save up to 10 minutes

I wish it would make the trains faster, but it won't. I verified at public meetings about the DC-Richmond "high speed rail" project that the 10 miles (originally planned to be 11) of triple tracking now under construction north and south of Quantico will remain at 70 mph. ...

This is severely disappointing.

But thanks for the reality check.

OrangeGrove wrote:

Noel Weaver wrote:Orlando - New Orleans does not make it for several reasons; the resistance of owner CSX is but one thing, a fair part of the route is not signaled meaning not over 59 MPH while traffic on nearby I-10 runs by at 70 or more MPH ... The only practical way to run service here is a daytime train on a daily schedule.
Noel Weaver

None of the alternatives studied for Gulf Coast Service involve either a daytime schedule or tri-weekly operation. Again, the proposal is for a daily extension (overnight to Florida) of the City of New Orleans to Orlando. Absent recent CSX intransigence, the train may have been in operation later this year.

Mr Weaver, please take another look at the actual proposal. It seems very well thought out, e.g., the unsignaled 59-mph section is traversed at night. See it here:

http://www.newsherald.com/assets/pdf/DA2111216.PDF" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If Palmetto could be extended as far as Jacksonville (subject to speed/route improvements further north) as well as being a terminus for a New Orleans service, maybe some economies of scale could result from a larger base and an impetus for the provision of additional travel options?

But the problems are the same as they always were, surely. Thin catchment, grudging landlord (CSX), uninterested Florida legislature.

I think anytime you make the network stronger (i.e. more trains to more cities in ways that can interchange passengers) I think there's a net win. That said, I don't see the Palmetto being extended back to the Silver Pam any time soon.
(perhaps once more sleepers are available... but even then, I wouldn't hold my breath.)

Greg Moore wrote:I think anytime you make the network stronger (i.e. more trains to more cities in ways that can interchange passengers) I think there's a net win. That said, I don't see the Palmetto being extended back to the Silver Pam any time soon.
(perhaps once more sleepers are available... but even then, I wouldn't hold my breath.)

If, and I'll admit it is a huge if, All Aboard Florida extends Brightline trains to Jacksonville, I could see Amtrak extending the Palmetto to Jacksonville. But that's about all I'll expect.