Virgin Rail née Brightline/AAF Orlando - Miami FL FEC

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Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:25 pm

Photos from MCO Terminal C (where APM, Parking, & Bus Curb are now open).
The Rail passenger's lounge, located on Level 5 is currently empty on the North Side, and occupied by the Brightline project office on the (much smaller) south side (which I'd guess would be "arrivals & retail")
RRNET_MCO_TermC_Level5_TrainHallVacant.jpg
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"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:27 pm

Brightline occupies the smaller, South side of Level 5, above the future rail platforms
RRNET_BL_MCO_Project_Office.jpg
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Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:33 pm

Looking North toward the existing Terminal A/B and one of the Airside satellites, you can see, from left to right:
Lower Left: Automated People Mover which connects to the original A/B Terminal
Center: Center platform and rail support bridges for train station (another single track and side platform are hard to see at far right)
Upper Right: Two large tunnel entrances which connect to grassy space alongside an existing airside satellite (seemed like each could hold at least 2 tracks, for a total of 4 to 6)

On the north side of the platform, the conventional-rail ROW does a fairly sharp turn to line up with the tunnels (can't pass above the APM)
RRNET_MCO_TermC_View_North_.jpg
My guess would be that at least part of one of those tunnels *could* be used for international-to-domestic baggage transfer or other similar "ground modes" that are part of airport operations...or not. The Airside of Terminal C, is on the far left (West) of this picture and of the part that's now open, and is still very much under construction.

They have authorized this whole "Phase 1" of the "South Terminal Complex" they have built the rail part and are working on the part outlined in red in this linked concept, which has about 1/3 of the total, long term plan:


So, imagine the power of this Terminal C for intercontinental arrivals from places where rail-to-train transfers are natural and expected. It makes perfect sense that after clearing customs from your Asian, LatAm, or European flight on one side of Terminal C that you might transfer to a Brightline that would take you to:
(west) (Convention Center/Sea World)-Disney-Lakeland-Tampa
(SunRail) Kissimmee-Orlando-Sanford-Deland
(northeast) Port Canaveral-Daytona-Jacksonville
(southeast) Port Canaveral-Fort Pierce-West Palm-Ft Lauderdale-Miami


And picture the ground-and-intrastate demand when the whole thing is built out. Here's a PDF of the whole airport growth plan.
http://www.cityoforlando.net/wp-content ... .11.14.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Note, in the plan, above that the line from the East enters the airport parallel to the 528 Beach Line / Bee Line tollway that (as posted a few posts upthread) is also getting its "railside" ROW cleared out and opened up. I think I saw that they have the rail ROW cleared at least to pass under the APMs that serve the east satellites and under the north taxiway but maybe not as far as the north Cargo Road.
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Last edited by Arlington on Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:25 pm, edited 7 times in total.
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:36 pm

View to the South of Terminal C shows the Rails widening from a 2 track over pass (capable of expansion) to a 3-track station
Side-platform track at far left, with a center-platform pair at right
MCO_TermC_View_South_Approach.jpg
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"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

bostontrainguy
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by bostontrainguy » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:08 pm

Arlington wrote:So, imagine the power of this Terminal C for intercontinental arrivals from places where rail-to-train transfers are natural and expected. It makes perfect sense that after clearing customs from your Asian, LatAm, or European flight on one side of Terminal C that you might transfer to a Brightline that would take you to:
(west) (Convention Center/Sea World)-Disney-Lakeland-Tampa
(SunRail) Kissimmee-Orlando-Sanford-Deland
(northeast) Port Canaveral-Daytona-Jacksonville
(southeast) Port Canaveral-Fort Pierce-West Palm-Ft Lauderdale-Miami
Haven't heard anything about the possibility of a NW wye to connect the Orlando and Jacksonville markets. Anyone heard anything on this?

daybeers
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by daybeers » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:52 pm

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Hate to turn off the shower's hot water, BUT:

https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/busines ... 4OqSoAGATM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fair Use:

(snipped)

Once again, I'll be first to acknowledge that I have been sorely mistaken about the objectives of the initiative. It appears that they actually had the intent to operate passenger trains.

I'm not sure if they have yet floated the $1.5B issue to "build it out", but with the first $600M issue being deemed below investment grade, the larger is surely same. Both are or will be privately placed - and, absent a covenant within the Indenture, shielded from those prying eyes of Gannett and Gate House Media (new Post owners) reporters.

But I have learned that regardless of who is Florida's next Governor, Brightline (lest we forget, AAF has joined RAILPAX wherever...) will have friends in Tallahassee. For all anyone knows, "what if it flops" plans are being formulated how to best hide the public funding.
Ouch! :( I hope the situation improves!

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:58 am

You don't become a Palm Beach Post reporter because you're good at the math of annual forecasting, so everything about how the numbers are reported is silly.

(OT: just like most of the reporting on Amtrak Virginia...including VADRPT's early powerpoints...always just compared year-to-date traffic versus annual goals and failed to notice the month-over-month growths. Halfway through a year of compound growth, you DO NOT expect your passenger counts to be half of the annual goal, but more like 1/3rd). As it turned out, Amtrak Virginia blew through its Annual numbers by a wide margin by the end of its first year, even though, for most of the year, it appeared "below goal")

Brightline is clearly below forecast. I can't spin the numbers (below) to show that it is any better than 77% of forecast. But calling Q1 + Q2
...ridership for the first half of the year was 180,870, just 16 percent of the 1.1 million passengers Brightline told investors in December that it expected for the full year of 2018.
is just about the stupidest way of reporting it that I can imagine.

So here are 5 more reasonable "how are they doing" estimates from passenger data so far:

FORECASTS for CALENDAR YEAR 2018

1) Calling H1 just 16% of the annual forecast is meaningless. If they'd straight-line extrapolated H1 into H2:
180k+180k = 360k = 33% of calendar 2018 forecast

2) Better, straight-line forecast Q2 as the number for Q3 and Q4
74k+106k+106k+106k = 392k = 36% of calendar 2018 forecast

3) Better, consider Q1/Q2 growth of 30% is likely to continue (as happens in "new mode" introductions, like Light Rail or Amtrak Virginia)
74k+106k+140k+180k = 500k = 45% of calendar 2018 forecast

4) Better, consider that 74/106 is actually 43% quarterly growth (in very early quarters of "new mode" intros this is possible)
74k+106k+150k+210k = 540k = 49% of calendar 2018 forecast

5) Better, consider that going from 11 tpdew to 16 tpdew may capture both time-of-day and S-curve (frequency-convenience) growth in Q3 & Q4
74k+106k+180k+250k = 610k = 55% of calendar 2018 forecast

NOTE that given the assumptions in (5), above, it is possible that BL will have 250k passengers in Q4 2018, which would be (roughly) consistent with expecting 1.1m passengers per year "soon"

Finally, consider that the "Calendar 2018" forecast could also have been considered "Quarters 2 through 5 of operations." True, the bondholders need stuff to happen on time, but as far as passengers are concerned the ramp happens only when the service is available and has good word of mouth. So if Q1 of service (which had the 74k of pax) had happened as Q4 2017, everything would have been shifted a quarter, which matters a lot for initial passenger forecasts when Q/Q growth can be 30% ~ 45%

FORECAST for Q2 through Q5 of OPERATIONS (as the 1100k forecast assumed service start in Q4 2017)

6) Taking (3) and shifting it 1 quarter you'd expect (by the end of March 2019)
106k+140k+180k+240k = 600k vs 1100k 54% of forecast for Q2 through Q5 of operations

7) Taking (4) and shifting it 1 quarter, you'd expect
106k+150k+210k+290k = 680k vs 1100k = 62% of forecast for Q2 through Q5 of operations

8) Taking (5) and shifting it 1 quarter, you'd expect
106k+180k+250k+320k = 850k vs 1100k = 77% of forecast for Q2 through Q5 of operations

The real growth will be a very different story than "16% of a forecasted 1.1m"

Is there someplace that BL actually made quarterly forecasts? There's NO WAY that 1.1m for 2018 assumed a flat 253k per quarter. Any forecast that got to 1.1m for 2018 would have assumed a quarterly ramp of about 30%. The Forecast for 1.1m in 2018 probably looked something like:
180k + 234k + 304k + 395k = 1.1m (ish)

And then you'd forecast at least 400k per quarter in 2019 and some more growth for a number in the 1.6m ~ 2.0m range.

There's no doubt that 3 bad things are "at play"
1) A late service start...you can't start compound growth until you've got that first quarter
2) A start at just 11/16ths of full schedule
3) Forecasting error. they do seem to have been 30% to 40% too optimistic (based on performance so far)
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

Gilbert B Norman
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Gilbert B Norman » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:35 pm

Mr. Arlington, off topic, but I thank you for your use of the terms "airside" and "landside" referring to the secured area of an airport and its open unsecured area. Previously the terms I thought I learned were "planeside" and "streetside".

Returning to topic, your projection of BL traffic for the year has merit; we shall see soon enough to what extent it is "on mark".

I'm through forecasting/speculating on Brightline; for never in now more than sixty years following railroad industry affairs, have I been so mistaken about the outcome of anything.

("for those tuning in late", I thought that the whole AAF/BL initiative was simply a "ploy" to sell the FEC to the State.)

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:57 pm

(OT: I think Airside/Landside became more common as airports added (a) security checkpoints that needed a clearer separation and (b) more retail where Airside/Landside was a clear and important distinction)

So far, MCO C' Landside =
Inter-terminal APM
Brightline & Sunrail
Space left for maglev (parallel to rail, but on east, a giant long, tall "empty box of air" )

(The original A and B satellite APMs are Airside (post security))
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

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BandA
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by BandA » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:31 pm

And the Monorail will go seaside :wink:

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:46 am

Whether Maglev Monorail, or Bombardier Monorail, or Light Rail (the Airport's 2015 choice for a connection to International Drive (Orlando Convention Center, Sea World, & hotel cluster), or BRT they've left a "TBD" right of way at platform-level on the east side, which would create a cross-platform transfer to what I assume is the single-track SunRail platform, or would go on a new platform contrived for level boarding with whichever mode. (Most recent study was 2016)

So it is nice that the conventional SunRail/HSR/BL platforms were considered "sure enough things" to actually be built alongside the airport's APM system, while "that other stuff" was just left as a big strip of whitespace.
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

Gilbert B Norman
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Gilbert B Norman » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:29 pm

I have yet to read this article appearing in Washingtom Monthly:

https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/ ... -can-love/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you are unfamiliar with the publcation, as was I, here is Fair Use from Wiki regarding its political positions:
The politics of Washington Monthly are often considered center-left. Founder Charles Peters refers to himself as a New Deal Democrat and advocates the use of government to address social problems. His columns also frequently emphasized the importance of a vigilant "fourth estate" in keeping government honest.

Washington Monthly features a continuing blog; "Political Animal" was written principally by Kevin Drum for several years, with frequent guest contributions by Washington Monthly's current and alumni editors. In 2008, Steve Benen took over as lead blogger; in 2012, he was succeeded by Ed Kilgore. Kilgore left the magazine in 2015.

In addition to "Political Animal," the magazine's website also hosts "Ten Miles Square," a general blog featuring posts from staff and political scientists, which debuted in 2011, and "College Guide," a blog about higher education, which the magazine began offering in 2009
Now here is Fair Use from the linked article:
..But a few years ago, a more palatable solution was presented to Florida’s Republicans. The proposed train, called Brightline, wouldn’t quite be “high speed,” which by international standards generally means running on dedicated tracks at speeds over 150 miles per hour, often approaching 200. Brightline trains would run on upgraded tracks laid in the nineteenth century, passing through the centers of many small towns and traversing hundreds of grade crossings, where track and roadway (or track and track) meet. As a result, they would top out at 125 miles per hour. But what really animated Republicans was Brightline’s solution to funding: it would be a for-profit operation funded through private investment. This train wasn’t socialism; it was American free enterprise at work..
I cannot comment upon the article further at this time, but somehow, for those here who have been following Brightline affairs, I doubt if any new ground is broken.

But on that point "We report, you decide".

addendum: I have now read the article, written by a freelance journalist, and is simply a codification of material already "out there".

Arlington
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Arlington » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:12 pm

We experienced a 42% increase in ridership in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of 2018, and experienced an increase of approximately 50% in ridership in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter of 2018
See? Totally new services can experience very high Q/Q growth (as modelled by me up thread)
"Trying to solve congestion by making roadways wider is like trying to solve obesity by buying bigger pants."--Charles Marohn

Jadebenn
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Jadebenn » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:19 pm

Bonevalleyrailfan wrote:Brightline now Virgin Trains USA will issue an IPO.
Every time I think I've got this project totally figured out, another surprise pops up.

50% ridership growth is really good, though. Really wondering what their Q3 figures will be.

Bonevalleyrailfan
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Re: Brightline fka All Aboard Florida Orlando - Miami FL FEC

Post by Bonevalleyrailfan » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:16 pm

Brightline ridership in October is 60,013

Revenue for the month is at $1M

https://emma.msrb.org/MarketActivity/Co ... s/ES938646

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