I think the MERR general manager pretty much summed it up when he said (I'm recalling the quote from memory, sorry if I don't get it exactly right) "Without Dragon, there is no Rockland Branch."
It's nice that there are two other customers in the form of Dicaperl and BIW, but they're extremely small potatoes and it's hard to imagine what other meaningful business there could be between Brunswick and Rockland. That simply is not an industrial part of Maine, and hasn't been for many decades. I keep hearing people say "Well maybe they can get a propane dealer or something" but as we've seen all over Maine the propane dealers who already HAVE railroad access stopped using rail years ago. And those guys are on mainlines, not a branch that's operated by a different railroad. So I just don't see that happening.
Is CMQ charging its Rockland Branch shippers the same rates as MERR charged? If they're charging more, that'd certainly explain the difference in revenue projections.
Pan Am Railways — Boston & Maine/Maine Central — Delaware & Hudson
Central Maine & Quebec/Montreal, Maine & Atlantic/Bangor & Aroostook
Providence & Worcester — New England — GE Locomotives