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  • Potential PAR/PAS Traffic Growth

  • Pan Am Southern (webssite: https://panamsouthern.com ) is jointly-owned by CSX and Norfolk Southern, but operated by Genesee & Wyoming subsidiary Pittsburg & Shawmut dba Berkshire and Eastern,
Pan Am Southern (webssite: https://panamsouthern.com ) is jointly-owned by CSX and Norfolk Southern, but operated by Genesee & Wyoming subsidiary Pittsburg & Shawmut dba Berkshire and Eastern,

Moderator: MEC407

 #1613543  by newpylong
 
Unless you've seen the tonnage reports, observations of webcams are anecdotal at best.

You also are leaving out the CN gateway (Conn River) which has essentially reopened in the past 6 months after not being marketed for 15 years. All types of traffic coming down from there now. It's only going to grow when it's a one stop GWI shop.
 #1613558  by newpylong
 
johnpbarlow wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:52 pm Newpylong - if you have tonnage data you can share with us, please do. I’m happy to be wrong in my skepticism! :wink:
I do have access along with carloads to each gateway, but that's the last item I would publicly share. Things look "healthy" for the new operator.
 #1613571  by ST377
 
johnpbarlow wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:52 pm Newpylong - if you have tonnage data you can share with us, please do. I’m happy to be wrong in my skepticism! :wink:
You're only seeing bits and pieces of the whole picture. EDPO and POED are regularly over 100 cars when they do run. 16R and 11R are regularly 70-80 cars daily - and those trains are heavy. Biggest problem west of Ayer is manpower, not traffic.

Also, bear in mind you're not seeing M426 and M427 on Pan Am territory, only on the B&A. Without P&W traffic they've been all over the place, tonnage-wise; some days 30 cars, others 90. Is that route getting the lion's share of the traffic? No, not at all.
 #1613588  by johnpbarlow
 
What are the PAS end points for this new CN Gateway traffic? I assume PAS classifies the gateway traffic at E Deerfield but roughly where does it go to/come from on PAS? Southern New England (eg, Connecticut, Ayer, Lawrence, other)? CSX has had CN interchange for Selkirk traffic via the Montreal Secondary for quite a number of years and G&W lines blanket New England (eg, P&W, SL&A, CSOR) - I'm assuming the new CN Conn River traffic is incremental to this?

Thanks.
 #1613591  by johnpbarlow
 
ST377, your ballpark carload figures seem reasonable to me. If EDPO runs 3 days/week or every other day, its Maine-bound consist would average ~50 cars/day similar to M426's Selkirk to Portland block. And 11R/16R running about 80 to 100 cars (daily?) with a good chunk of P&W interchange also sounds reasonable.

Assuming NS gets the D&H Albany Main/Voorheesville connection up and running in 2023 for IM/racks to/from Ayer, 11R/16R will lose the rack traffic and of course PAS will lose the 264/265 IM traffic which will take more tonnage off the Hoosac Tunnel route. Do you know if PAS-CP interchange at Mohawk is still small numbers of carloads?

Re: crew shortages, as of 1/11/23, CSX is looking to hire conductors at E Deerfield, Ayer, and Lawrence. Its previous conductor opening at Portland is no longer listed on its job openings web site.
 #1613597  by ST377
 
16R P&W traffic isn't that significant. The GR job only goes up 2-3 times a week these days instead of what used to be a steady 6 days. I'll be generous and say it averages 60 cars a week. AFAIK per some Billerica contacts the racks are staying on 16R and 11R, not moving to the B&A. Remember that CSX has committed via the STB to keeping all current traffic (EDPO and POED cars) on the B&M. Can both change at some point? Sure. But none of the tonnage for the Ayer and Fitchburg area customers (trash included) is going anywhere. Indeed, some unlikely customers have inquired about expanding service once the ST is out of the picture. Really the only train being taken off the B&M is the pig, which has been fairly small and stagnant for the past 3 years.
 #1613599  by newpylong
 
That's correct I've mentioned here prior that the racks are supposed to stay on PAS and not go the B&A.

Also the PAS local traffic that CSX is bringing up on 426 is supposed to move back to Rotterdam once GWI takes over.

The reason the P&W is not going up as much isn't that the carloads are down but because PAS is unable to deliver and pick up daily. There are always tons of P&Ws sitting in Deerfield with no one to take them east. I'm sure this traffic will be prioritized in a few months...
 #1613607  by CN9634
 
Surprised CN hasn't tried to take a bite out of the grain traffic. Both CP and CN have admitted their US grain franchises are weak, with CP picking up more steam as of late (and CPKC naturally will boost this). Then again who knows how much more punishment the Alburg trestle can take...
 #1613608  by neman2
 
newpylong wrote: Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:40 pm Also the PAS local traffic that CSX is bringing up on 426 is supposed to move back to Rotterdam once GWI takes over..
Correct me if I'm way off base but it seems this routine of M426 / M427 not stopping in the Hill Yard seems to be in the process of being implemented because M427 routinely drops their "Ayers" including Poland Water at Graniteville every day now for a local (usually LA-4) to pick up and bring to Ayer.
 #1613618  by QB 52.32
 
newpylong wrote: Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:40 pmThe reason the P&W is not going up as much isn't that the carloads are down but because PAS is unable to deliver and pick up daily. There are always tons of P&Ws sitting in Deerfield with no one to take them east. I'm sure this traffic will be prioritized in a few months...
It will be interesting to see if/when/how B&E will be able to bring back via Gardner the significant ~2,500+ carloads of P&W traffic taken over to CSX via Worcester within the past year, as Mr. Barlow pointed out, any other P&W traffic CSX has chipped away at since PSR implementation, or even CSX business rumored in the past year to be shifting over more generally to PAS but failing to materialize.
 #1613627  by ST377
 
neman2 wrote: Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:07 pm Correct me if I'm way off base but it seems this routine of M426 / M427 not stopping in the Hill Yard seems to be in the process of being implemented because M427 routinely drops their "Ayers" including Poland Water at Graniteville every day now for a local (usually LA-4) to pick up and bring to Ayer.
You're dead on. The whole purpose of LA4 is to shuttle cars between Graniteville and Lawrence. FWIW, Ayer local crews aren't supposed to be going east of 312 on the FML any longer. Also, both 426 and 427 crews report to Lawrence now, as the Worcester 'office' the 426 crew reported to is either closed now or will be closing very soon.
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