Will They Ever Return?

It's not the last decade you should be looking at. It's the last 2-3 years.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/g ... c/3707602/

Between July 2020 and July 2021, New York [City] lost more than 305,000 people

NJ also saw a population loss statewide of around 40K give or take.

lensovet wrote: ↑Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:55 pm lol this guy…no comment.

wonder how much $$$ he makes off the clicks he generates on YT. definitely don't need an office in NYC for that…yet somehow I don't see him moving.

You're thinking AdSense revenue is just truckloads of money. It's not. A lot of folks end up having to take sponsorships. If you ever had a video get sponsored by "Raid: Shadow Legends" then you know, the AdSense money isn't there. (Personally, though, why can't SC Johnson, makers of "Raid" bug spray, just make a short "RAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIDDDD?!?!? Raid stops bugs dead" commercial... )

eolesen wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:02 pm It's not the last decade you should be looking at. It's the last 2-3 years.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/g ... c/3707602/

Between July 2020 and July 2021, New York [City] lost more than 305,000 people

NJ also saw a population loss statewide of around 40K give or take.

Right, that's why housing prices fell to rock bottom levels. Because everyone left the tristate area and moved out, and no one else wanted to move in to replace them.

Wait, what?

Never assume there's logic in real estate...

Redfin has some great analytics that might explain why values might have stayed consistent. https://www.redfin.com/city/30749/NY/Ne ... ing-market

Inventory on the market is down anywhere from 20-30%, and there's no meaningful new construction to compete with existing home sales. That's going to keep values up vs. a place like Florida or Texas where new construction keeps home values more reasonable.

Days on the market is also up about 30%.

Housing values also depend on who left -- renters or homeowners. If you lose more renters than homeowners, those valuations might be misleading.

Never!!

"The powers that be" - Gov. Hochul and Mayor Adams, have essentially conceded that 2019 will never return. The subway is at 63% '19 ridership. Restaurants and Bars catering to knowledge workers is also same level.

Now it appears that "wisdom" recognizes it's time to "repurpose" Midtown Manhattan.

The Times reports on the latest "As The World Turns" episode.

Fair Use:

The congested, chaotic section of Manhattan near Pennsylvania Station, which teems with tourists, commuters and shoppers, is undeniably drab. Does that make it blighted?

New York State has decreed that it is, and Gov. Kathy Hochul has recently likened the Penn Station area to “a Skid Row neighborhood.” She was defending the controversial plan to allow developers to build 10 towers around the decrepit train station — the busiest transit hub in the nation — in exchange for some of the $7 billion the state needs to renovate it.

Has the governor ever been to either Skid Row or Penn herself?

lensovet wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 8:51 pm Has the governor ever been to either Skid Row or Penn herself?

Took her for more of a bon Jovi fan, than skid row

Some people are coming back. Last summer, when I started going over to Waldwick either before or after a medical appointment in Valley Hospital in Ridgewood. Last summer, the parking lot at the station was mostly empty. This fall, the lot was I would say 2/3 full. The parking spaces on the street were empty so its not back to where it used to be despite some people coming back. So much so, that the town removed the parking meters they used to have for street parking.

Well, it appears the bosses are "cracking down".

"You wanna work for us, you will do so in the office during assigned hours". "Recession and layoffs are a coming, and you best doeth as we sayeth".

This should make landlords, transit agencies, restaurants, taverns - and Mr. Wolf, all "happy happy".

Wall Street Journal

Fair Use:

..Employers are losing their patience with empty desks in the office.

Companies including investment giant Vanguard Group, workplace technology company Paycom Software Inc.and others have sent directives to employees in recent weeks, urging workers to follow existing hybrid schedules or to come into the office on additional days in 2023, according to internal memos viewed by The Wall Street Journal and interviews with employees. In some cases, bosses have told those who fail to comply that they could face termination within weeks.

Employees at some companies have challenged new directives in corporate all-hands sessions. Those pushing to remain at home say they find in-office work unproductive and commuting inefficient. Employers, meanwhile, say bringing workers back together is important because it helps with issues such as problem solving, training new hires and reinforcing corporate culture.

Incidentally, the two concerns noted by The Journal - Paycom Software and the Vanguard Group - won't do much for mass transit. Paycom is located in Oklahoma City; need more be said? Vanguard is now located in Malvern PA. Even though Malvern - one stop West of Paoli - is of course served by SEPTA, their "corporate Campus" is miles away with plenty of parking available.

I can only imagine the discussion that must have taken place when companies like Sears Roebuck or Western Union realized their original business model was no longer sustainable...

The last three years have shown that for every company in a high cost high tax area that is clamping down on in-office policies, there's someone else willing to let them work remote from a location/state of their choosing.

I don't see that trend slowing down even if the economy does.

If anything, the companies who are able to lower their fixed costs like real estate are going to outlive the telegram and catalog sales clingers.

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Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:49 am This should make landlords, transit agencies, restaurants, taverns - and Mr. Wolf, all "happy happy".

Sadly, it's too late for me. The office is planned to be transitioned out of and Development is 100% perma-work-from-home. The company is working on some consolidation (ever since before the pandemic). The closest "new office" would be a 1h30m max drive away (2h10m by rail). Um, no; I have a hard 2h cap on one-way transit to work and driving that is half a tank up and back in my SUV.

At least one major developer is betting big that new office space will lure workers to the NY Penn area. Demolition of the decrepit Hotel Penn is progressing rapidly, the property to become home to a new office tower that Governor Hochul supports wholeheartedly. More details and pix in this link.
https://newyorkyimby.com/2022/12/ddoemo ... attan.html

Well it's a little too late to cancel that project now.

Too late for the demolition, but they don't necessarily need an erected Penn15 ....

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