KCS/CP Merger Discussion

I was under the impression that CN was out of the running for a KCS merger. Am I wrong about that? Or am I "wrong" about that?

Wayside wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:30 pm I was under the impression that CN was out of the running for a KCS merger. Am I wrong about that? Or am I "wrong" about that?

CN just wants divestiture of the old Gateway Western to be a condition of the merger. What I don't understand about this is does CN expect the STB to impose Gateway conditions on UP and BNSF at Kansas City as a result of a merger of which they are not a part of? If the STB doesn't impose such conditions how are they going to get anything from KC except Intermodal. Plus of course CN wants access to capacity at KCS's Intermodal facility. Are they willing to build their own capacity, or is their plan to reduce CPKC's ability to grow traffic their.

I think CN's real goal is to hopefully just scuttle the whole merger.

BTW - NS, BNSF, and CSX's dream lists are now available on the STB website, with Executive Summaries available on the Trains Magazine Newswire. Interesting that CSX now wants access to the Meridian Speedway.

Look who's back in the game:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-w ... lewebshare

Fair Use:

Billionaire investor William Ackman acquired a stake in Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. CP 0.08% as the railroad seeks regulatory approval for its proposed $27 billion merger with Kansas City Southern.

Mr. Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed in a regulatory filing that it owned roughly 2.8 million shares of Canadian Pacific as of Dec. 31.

The fund actually had exposure to many times that—about 14.8 million shares as of Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter. That figure would make Mr. Ackman one of the railway’s top 15 holders with a stake worth well over $1 billion based on the current share price.

Hindsight says he should have just stayed in; but then, that's not how these boys play the game (except Warren, whose holding period is "forever").

CP and KCS have introduced a new Intermodal service between Lazaro Cardenas and Chicago, with the first northbound arriving yesterday 3/8/2022.

https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews ... l-service/

I think this is an exciting development. While it was noted in KCSCP plans submitted at the Surfboard hearings. That somebody believes security is "adequate" to handle high value ladings through what is regarded as "lawless" country, is a plus for all parties in interest.

Here is discussion related to the Port of Lazaro Cardenas:

https://railroad.net/lazaro-cardenas-is ... l#p1588555

Apparently, this development has not been reported at this topic, however such is being discussed elsewhere at the site:

metra-stb-filing-opposes-cp-kcs-merger-t174079.html

There is "breathtaking news" of such being reported on local media outlets

Out off all the KCS CP related articles, ranging from direct news to protests, this in my opinion is rather, bizarre. Apparently Metra is claiming that a CP KCS merger would increase train delays on their Milwaukee Lines by 1,200%...

https://railfan.com/metra-cp-kcs-merger ... in-delays/

CHICAGO — Metra officials said Canadian Pacific has failed to consider how its merger with Kansas City Southern might impact commuter rail service in Chicagoland and that if it’s approved without conditions it could result in a “1,200 percent” increase in passenger train delays. 

That dramatic figure, measured by every 100 train miles on Metra, was outlined in a filing with the U.S. Surface Transportation Board recently. The filing comes as the federal regulator continues to consider the CP-KCS combination, which would be the largest railroad merger in a generation. Metra isn’t the only entity to raise concerns about the proposed merger in recent weeks: A number of community groups, politicians and other railroads have been critical of it. But few comments have been as dramatic as those filed by Metra.

In its filing — which revised a previous comment earlier this year — Metra said it appears CP did not take into account the number of passenger trains that run on its Milwaukee District line northwest of the city, assuming that all track capacity could be used for freights. Metra goes on to state that approving the merger with no conditions would result in “substantial and problematic” impacts on the region’s passengers. 

Powwow tonight in Itasca:

https://www.hpil.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=783

While I reside in "The Land of the Burlingtons", my daily life is unaffected by the outcome of the CP-KCS merger.

However, I did spend eleven years of my working life with the MILW.

It was a "sick patient" when I hired on; and was moribund when I "pulled the pin" December '81 (RIP Dec 31,1985). Work was no longer fun, and I wanted to "be my own boss", which I was with my small CPA practice that I largely closed during Sep. '03 and fully closed during March '17.

But the MILW was "my MILW" and to see the moribund "D&I" (away from publicly funded METRA territory) have a new life with fresh CPKCS (or whatever trade name it ultimately adopts) traffic is to some extent "exciting" and that those of us (including my miniscule part) who held it together to first have a Short Line acquire it then subsequently the SOO (CP US operations) become a major E-W route with FRA Class 3 track ($, maybe?) is gratifying to me.

Mr. Olesen, if such includes you, "sorry 'bout that". But those "whiners" along the line, should simply accept that any traffic they observe is simply benefitting the region as a whole. Care to "pass the taxpayer hat" to either elevate or depress the line through your communities?

Nah, the line I live on has little hope of seeing revitalization unless someone decides to build on one of the two 100+ acre former GM Janesville sites that are now leveled but still have rail access from UP and WSOR...

As far as the KCS-CP merger goes, I say have at it. The Feds shouldn't have a say in blocking any mergers where there is less than 20% overlap.

Paywall possible:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/micros ... rchresults

Fair Use:

Patrick Fruzzetti
Managing Director, Rose Advisors (Hightower)

10-year pick: Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)
I like railroads because they’re a scarce asset—there’s only so much railway in North America. Canadian Pacific is a Class 1 railroad, and consolidation has diminished the number of Class 1 rails over the years. Canadian Pacific, which is in the U.S. and Canada, recently merged with Kansas City Southern, which is in the U.S. and Mexico. So, this is the only rail line that goes from Mexico through the U.S. all the way up to Canada.

I believe we’re in an era of deglobalization. And when you think about the beneficiaries of this shift, you look to places like Mexico. It’s an area where you can produce relatively cheaply for North America in several sectors. Grain, energy products, agriculture, hardgoods, automotive—it can all be shipped via rail. So this is an onshoring play. And in an inflationary environment, Canadian Pacific has a lot of pricing power, because there are only so many rails, and their costs are fixed. Whatever inflation they’re facing, they’re pricing above it, and that’s good for margins.

Operating ratios are an important metric for the railroad industry—the lower the better. Canadian Pacific’s operating ratio was in the high 50% range last year. By the second half, it will be in the mid-50% range. If it can continue to get that operating ratio down—and it will—that will be very beneficial to the valuation of the company over time. I like to buy companies that I think are trading at a significant discount to their future intrinsic value. And I think Canadian Pacific definitely is there.

disclaimer: author does not, nor ever has, held licensure as an investment advisor

Hello friends, it's been a while. I've come to deliver this news.

Today the STB released their final environmental report for the CPKC merger, finding no significant impact. The largest impact comes from increased train noise that would result in disturbances in communities that are sensitive to noise. The EIS also recommends that CPKC work with communities to reduce impacts through grade crossing mitigation projects.

Links to the EIS:

https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/ ... lume_I.pdf
https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/ ... ume_II.pdf
https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/ ... me_III.pdf

The publishing of the EIS is the last step before the STB can rule on the merger. The EIS must be published in the federal register for 30 days before the STB can make its decision. This puts the decision date around Monday, February 26th. If approved, the merger will take effect 30 days after that, or around Tuesday, March 28th.

I expect the merger to be approved. I just don't see how the STB doesn't approve it considering how receptive they have been. I do expect some conditions to be tacked on. CP and KCS have already agreed to various conditions from Amtrak and various online communities. As for the conditions, they have not agreed too - I would not be surprised if CN's request for trackage rights over the Springfield Line/Gateway Western is approved. (CN downgraded its request from outright ownership to trackage rights at the request of the board.) I would not be surprised if CP and UP come to a last-minute condition for trackage rights bypassing Houston, another proposal that the board was quite receptive too.

If CPKC goes though I think it will be a great success. One of its major strengths will come from the increasing trend of nearshoring - whereby factories are being relocated from Asia to Mexico to make the overall supply chain more resilient. CPKC would be in a perfect position to take advantage of this.

- Shortline