Commuter trains struggle with fewer commuters

New hybrid schedules allow many workers to skip the daily commute, requiring commuter rail systems to search for new riders

The uncertain futures of city subway and bus systems have received the most attention amid changing commuter habits, but experts say longer-distance trains and buses that took the biggest hit during the pandemic remain at an even higher risk of long-term ridership woes.

The D.C. area’s two long-distance commuter rail systems have been among the slowest to rebound.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transpor ... ridership/

I've said before, for similar reasons, that commuter rail will go back to about 65-75% of pre-pandemic levels. I've mentioned this in the NYC Area Commuter Rail area, but it applies here as well.

For some standing-room-only or heavily-packed trains, it'll go down to "I can have a seat", because there will be people that will transition to WFH permanently. A "two hour one way" route is definitely one reason for it. Other systems may adjust their schedules and run a train or two less because they'll be largely empty.

Will it get back to 100%? All I can say is "not any time soon."

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:33 pm I've said before, for similar reasons, that commuter rail will go back to about 65-75% of pre-pandemic levels. I've mentioned this in the NYC Area Commuter Rail area, but it applies here as well.

For some standing-room-only or heavily-packed trains, it'll go down to "I can have a seat", because there will be people that will transition to WFH permanently. A "two hour one way" route is definitely one reason for it. Other systems may adjust their schedules and run a train or two less because they'll be largely empty.

Will it get back to 100%? All I can say is "not any time soon."

I'd not complain if it's no longer standing room only.
I'm one of those who are WFH pretty much permanently, but it would be nice to have regional service for going to DC (for social visit), or the rare nova data center visits. If anything, MARC can adapt to demand faster than VRE.

I'm wondering if they will gain a few extra unexpected riders. With those who will have to go in 2x a pay period, how many will decide to hop on the train so they don't have to deal with (specifically 95 from Fredericksburg) traffic? I'm thinking just having to do it once a week will be enough for some to give the train a try.

I would also expect to see an uptick in both MARC and VRE ridership during the upcoming Yellow/Blue and Orange line shutdowns.

One of the problems I have with VRE currently is that the service isn’t frequent enough all day to use it for anything other than commuting. I can’t take it into the city to catch a Nats game, or stay late and go to a bar and catch a late train home. The service pattern needs to change if they want more casual riders

KTHW wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:10 pm I would also expect to see an uptick in both MARC and VRE ridership during the upcoming Yellow/Blue and Orange line shutdowns.

One of the problems I have with VRE currently is that the service isn’t frequent enough all day to use it for anything other than commuting. I can’t take it into the city to catch a Nats game, or stay late and go to a bar and catch a late train home. The service pattern needs to change if they want more casual riders

And since it's CSX territory, it would require CSX approval... which they would say "build us another bridge".

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:50 am

KTHW wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:10 pm I would also expect to see an uptick in both MARC and VRE ridership during the upcoming Yellow/Blue and Orange line shutdowns.

One of the problems I have with VRE currently is that the service isn’t frequent enough all day to use it for anything other than commuting. I can’t take it into the city to catch a Nats game, or stay late and go to a bar and catch a late train home. The service pattern needs to change if they want more casual riders

And since it's CSX territory, it would require CSX approval... which they would say "build us another bridge".

CSX .. for now...
VRE should have planned for new patterns, and provisioned rolling stock for it.
I do wonder, is it possible to have semi temporary platforms, with extenders like on brightline,
set up on both sides of track? I image they must exist, perhaps in an asian country?

Time to build the second Long Bridge now!! Maybe CSX will allow more Amtrak and VRE trains once it knows the bridge is being built!

Long Bridge pre construction is in progress. Full construction starts end of 2025

KTHW wrote: ↑Sat Mar 12, 2022 4:20 pm Long Bridge pre construction is in progress. Full construction starts end of 2025

What in the world would take 3 years. Is there a timeline graph somewhere?

Don’t have a timeline, but a lot of the long process has to do with tying the project into adjacent track enhancements, all of the obstacles the bridge spans will have to weave around, wetlands mitigation, and dealing with building in an active RR corridor.

Three years planning on a construction project is nothing. Doing it in two jurisdictions (VA and DC is a nightmare unto itself.

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KTHW wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:10 pm I would also expect to see an uptick in both MARC and VRE ridership during the upcoming Yellow/Blue and Orange line shutdowns.

One of the problems I have with VRE currently is that the service isn’t frequent enough all day to use it for anything other than commuting. I can’t take it into the city to catch a Nats game, or stay late and go to a bar and catch a late train home. The service pattern needs to change if they want more casual riders

The reason VRE can't provide more service during the day is because of limited capacity. VRE shares the tracks with CSX and Amtrak trains. CSX needs to operate trains during the day, so they limit when VRE can operate. South of Franconia-Springfield is only 2 tracks and the Long Bridge is a bottleneck. They have plans to build a new bridge which will add capacity, so VRE will be able to provide more service.