Post COVID - Passenger Rail

Mr. Olesen, off rails but related, is what will happen when the $300 Federal supplement comes to an end?

Or what if the State agencies, such as Department of Employment Security here, really checked claimants to see if they were "actively seeking work". I don't think too many do. No longer will I hear of from this "thirtysomething" girl with one kid I know in Iowa saying "Gilbie, I make more on unemployment than I do working" (retail sales). "They never check to see where I've applied" (she hasn't).

Sure know a quick way to end this "labor shortage".

No question whatever, entertainers and service workers have been badly hurt, but if the COVID trends continue to go in the right direction (I expect to see a "manageable spike" following this "almost normal" Holiday weekend), they too will have work again. Both my favorites - the Chicago Symphony and Cleveland Orchestra - are planning full 21-22 seasons.

Just wish these Evangelicals and Trumpers (talking to you, Sis), would step up and get the pokes.

Ken W2KB wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 11:14 amPossession, use or providing a forged proof of vaccination card is a federal criminal offense punishable by monetary fine and up to five years in federal prison. Many states have or are in the process of enacting similar legislation. It is rather unwise to engage in such misrepresentation and fraud.

Thank you for posting that.

As for verification - mine is on record electronically with the state and I expect that record has been forwarded to the CDC. Hopefully the honor system is good enough. Unfortunately there are dishonorable people in this world.

Infection numbers are dramatically down and death numbers (both per day averages over seven days) are slowly going down. We should be close to the point where people are on their own to protect themselves. Let the non-vaxed infect each other if they don't want to take precautions. Cynical, sad, but probably the next step.

justalurker66 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:41 am Infection numbers are dramatically down and death numbers (both per day averages over seven days) are slowly going down. We should be close to the point where people are on their own to protect themselves. Let the non-vaxed infect each other if they don't want to take precautions. Cynical, sad, but probably the next step.

12 states are already at 70% having at least one shot of the vaccine (Maryland hit it yesterday). The more states, the better. We should be good by Labor Day.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:45 am

justalurker66 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:41 am Infection numbers are dramatically down and death numbers (both per day averages over seven days) are slowly going down. We should be close to the point where people are on their own to protect themselves. Let the non-vaxed infect each other if they don't want to take precautions. Cynical, sad, but probably the next step.

12 states are already at 70% having at least one shot of the vaccine (Maryland hit it yesterday). The more states, the better. We should be good by Labor Day.

Hopefully! Worldcon in Washington, DC was moved from August to December in anticipation of it being held in person, rather than virtually online as was last year's Worldcon in New Zealand. I'll take Amtrak from NJ to DC to stay a bit on topic. https://discon3.org/

Ken W2KB wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:23 pm Hopefully! Worldcon in Washington, DC was moved from August to December in anticipation of it being held in person, rather than virtually online as was last year's Worldcon in New Zealand. I'll take Amtrak from NJ to DC to stay a bit on topic. https://discon3.org/

Same here. I'm hoping Midwest Furfest in Rosemount, IL outside Chicago will be in person (fur?) as well. I so want to take the Cardinal or the Capitol Limited.

Sounds like Mr. Ken Brown is also an afficianado of these "Cons". As I previously noted here, a group called Jordancon (fantasy author Robert Jordan) was convening at a Crowne Plaza in Atlanta (Dunwoody) at which I was staying.

I met several participants in the Bar; nice bunch of guys and gals - all professionals just as are Messrs. Brown and Wolf.

eolesen wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:22 am Sorry, but having had COVID, it's not a dangerous virus. I can't imagine the Judiciary jumping on the vaccine apartheid bandwagon.

Given that ruling in 1905, the Judiciary already has.

And... given the early events of the pandemic, the events now in India, how fast it hit, how many variants are going... Um, yeah, it's dangerous. It gets less dangerous with the vaccines, but you got to get it first.

Only 12 states are at the 70% mark. When 50 states get to 70%, then we'll have herd immunity. Amtrak is definitely being careful here.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:07 amAmtrak is definitely being careful here.

And that carefulness is a good thing.

I must wonder if commuter agency and Amtrak premium will EVER return?

The anti-VAX crowd (they all have their "debunkable" reasons; religious convictions? - the prelates of every major religion have endorsed shots; Trump? he got VAXED "on the QT") will still be reluctant and could easily just use autos when they are required to return to the office. Further, companies, seeing the opportunity to reduce office square footage - and rent, will require employees to WFH with the office becoming an "every now and then". Amtrak premium (i.e. Acela) will be confronted with the same issue that airlines are addressing - "need" for business travel questioned.

Non-business - agency and Amtrak - will return in due course. It would be nice if METRA would restore an afternoon train (almost nonstop) that I found very convenient for my Chicago Symphony concerts. Beyond that, and my "poor man's way to O'Hare" (Metra/CTA Blue Line; $8.50 Senior Round Trip), I no longer have reason to go into the city.

Well sir, appears like Ravinia is happening this Summer. Free North Line/UP tickets with “proof of” Ravinia
tickets.
Caught Sir George there back “in the day” conducting that extraordinary band...
ravinia.org
Now back to our irregular scheduled plague thread.

"It's a bird? It's a plane? It's a train? NO It's R-A- V- I -N-I-A!!!!!

Been of course for the CSO, but not my favorite of concert venues. To be around there for a "pop"? Uh, "about the same as finding me in Grant Park last weekend in July (hey, Mayor Lori; COVID is on the run, but it's not over).

End of off-topic rant.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:51 am I must wonder if commuter agency and Amtrak premium will EVER return?

Earlier I said:

Yes, businesses will embrace a work-from-home model and will reduce their office space... and how much they travel. Zoom et all works well. Most meetings can be done all remote. This means you really don't need to travel unless a value-benefit analysis says it's worth it.

Certain businesses require people for them to work, even if it's a monitoring station where someone has to be there in case something goes wrong. This includes Internet-connected data centers (note: I work for a company that hosts a good chunk of the Internet).

Based on this, it's likely that we'll see 65-75% of office capacity once we get to "masks off" and a new office dynamic is shaken out.

• Local transit (bus, subway, light rail) will recover quickly. Folks gotta work!
• Commuter rail will take longer to recover, but some speed-ups are basically location based.
• MARC/VRE will recover quickly because it's connected to DC. The value-benefit is too high here when you're dealing with regulators. It's likely that both will resume full schedules within a year of "masks off"
• Stock and commodity exchanges will also re-energize commuter rail. Metra (Chicago) will recover fast as it has numerous commodity exchanges. NJ Transit, Metro-North, and LIRR will also recover because Wall Street. Given pre-pandemic crowding, I doubt you'll see many trains trimmed off the old schedule.
• Everywhere else? Slow recovery, and likely many schedule changes. There probably won't be full service past the 1 year post-"masks-off" marker.

Now? We're close, but not there yet. We need the "Everyone can take 'em off!" signal. Right now, out of the CDC, it's mixed.

• NYC Metro-North and LIRR are running regular schedules but not charging rush hour rates. There's probably enough load that warrants it.
• NJ Transit changed their schedules repeatedly and is supposedly running pre-pandemic levels now.
• SEPTA is running full schedule, pre-pandemic levels
• MTA Maryland's local services are full schedule (save for some expresses) but commuter rail/bus are still on reduced service.
• Metra Rail is on reduced service as far as I can tell.
• Everyone else is reduced or rescheduled reduced.

I'd say end of December 2022 is when we'll get back to norm on the commuter rails.

Mod Note: re-opened from housekeeping, lets remember this is railroad.net, not virology.net or epidemiology.net ...

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:17 pm Earlier I said:

Based on this, it's likely that we'll see 65-75% of office capacity once we get to "masks off" and a new office dynamic is shaken out.

Now? We're close, but not there yet. We need the "Everyone can take 'em off!" signal.

Based on the airlines the passenger could return before the masks come off. Mask mandates in place but the airports were still packed for Memorial Day and that appears to be the beginning of a trend instead of a fluke.

People wanting to limit their exposure/mask time may choose to spend a shorter amount of time in a flying metal tube as opposed to a rolling metal tube. That will affect the recovery of long distance and regional services.

Commuters and NEC ... it all depends on when the offices reopen. Offices where work at home worked well may not force people to come back. But the "lets get the team together" dynamic will return. Slowly.

I'd give it a year or two (2022/2023) to expect passenger loads to recover to 2019 levels. Longer if we have another pandemic spike.

justalurker66 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:28 pm Commuters and NEC ... it all depends on when the offices reopen. Offices where work at home worked well may not force people to come back. But the "lets get the team together" dynamic will return. Slowly.

I'd give it a year or two (2022/2023) to expect passenger loads to recover to 2019 levels. Longer if we have another pandemic spike.

That's my guess as well. We'll definitely have some shaking out to do. I've already discussed my reasons way earlier in the thread.