Intermodal to Saint John

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 5:56 am Now maybe with two roads, one that can serve the Southeast region and the other the Midwest as well as anywhere in Canada save Prince Rupert, this will result in expansion of the Port of Saint John to such extent that both roads will hold their investments will pay off and entice other industries with high value traffic to locate in Maine.

There is no Port Saint John rail play into the Southeast because there is no benefit vs. cost to the container lines and their customers.

This is largely about the discretionary Midwestern market competing against the Port of NY/NJ and for CSX I could see potential along the competitive border in the Northeast in both New England and upstate NY as well in the Midwest into the Ohio River Valley/Indianapolis/St. Louis where CN and CP don't go/don't get there with advantage in addition to stack-dependent head-to-head competition to Detroit and Chicago/beyond.

Not a bad idea to also consider that this discretionary Midwestern vs. NY/NJ play is within the context of a 3-port, 3-Class 1 competitive environment. CN has speed, stack and capacity serving 3 ports, CP serves 2 ports with stack beyond the Toronto market accessed via CSX rights, and CSX will serve 1 port at least for some time without stack on the B&M and MEC east end.

Up until this point and for what it might be worth including over the longer run, Mr. NHV's excellent reporting indicates a pretty sizable container traffic imbalance for CP so far.

Mr. QB, you do raise points in your immediate not to be overlooked.

CPKC routes to serve the Midwest are indeed limited first entering the USA on trackage rights on CRSA/NS when compared with CSX. I should have been more mindful that the Southeastern ports such as Charleston and Savannah are more accessible to the Southeast markets.

But at the moment the "not all that strong loadings" Mr. NHV chronicles for the Forum on CP-M's "one a day" simply do not suggest enough strength for two Class I roads (plus CN with their albeit circuitous route) serving the Port of Saint John.

But hopefully, with Chessie throwing some Fancy Feast the Maine Central's way to have it become at least a Class 2 (25mph) and maybe a Class 3 (40mph), the maritime companies will come to think of Saint John as a worthy Port of call, resulting in new high value traffic for all three roads.

Mr. Norman, I should have been more mindful that it's not only CP, it's CPKC!

As to Port Saint John CPKC v. CSX head-to-head Chicago/beyond includes to what extent CSX would/could foreclose CPKC's use of their doublestack-cleared railroad between Buffalo and Chicago forcing CPKC's need to clear the Detroit River RaIl Tunnel as part of re-routing vs. CSX clearing the ex-B&M/MEC of 172 obstructions.

2022 Port Saint John handled 150K TEU's with capacity just increased from 150K to 330K with a goal of 800K vs. Halifax 600K TEU's with 1.13M capacity.

Among the 3 EHH-applied PSR-principled Class 1's in this play, there's also merchandise to be considered along with intermodal contribution in getting to strategic value. As to high value traffic, I'll note CSX EVP Sales & Marketing Kevin Boone's recent paraphrased assertion that he'll "happily take merchandise over intermodal any day".

Looks like the Moosehead was devoid of trains yesterday.

121 was into Greenville Jct. at 08:01 with 8559, 23 mixed freight, 23 wells/49 containers, 8624 (DPU), 53 wells/111 containers.

120 was into Greenville Jct. at 14:53 with 8058/8811, 99 wells/146 containers, 7 empty wells, 7023 (DPU), 34 empty wells, 41 mixed freight.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 11:26 am But at the moment the "not all that strong loadings" Mr. NHV chronicles for the Forum on CP-M's "one a day" simply do not suggest enough strength for two Class I roads (plus CN with their albeit circuitous route) serving the Port of Saint John.

Now "that's more like it" from your immediate report, Mr. NHV. Maybe there will be "enough for all" if those loadings you immediately noted hold.

Mr. QB, I note with interest your immediate that a Chessie EVP holds "traffic is traffic" and apparently happy to get it from wherever he can. That I think is contrary to Saint Elwood's Gospel, who taught his "Disciples" that high value traffic was the "holy grail"; chase that and "handle the rest when you handle it".

disclaimer: my views of railroading can be distorted living along Uncle Warren's BNSF Chicago Sub and its FRA Class 4 where often there will be two solid Container trains (one could be solid JBH containers) passing within thirty minutes.

Mr. Norman, "Saint Elwood's" holy grail is that you get to highest value in pursuit of all traffic, integrating and understanding the variety of characteristics in application of speed, reliability, and costs. Mr. Boone is an adherent.
No doubt for these disciple roads there's some measure of contributing value in pursuing intermodal to Saint John within that pursuit of the "holy grail".

It appears Tuesdays are now an off day for the Moosehead, note my edit to this morning's post to accommodate both trains.

121 was into Greenville Jct. at 07:51 with 7023/8811, 15 mixed freight, 51 wells/97 containers, 8058 (DPU), 23 wells/48 containers, 48 mixed freight.


[Edited at 18:15]

120 was into Greenville Jct. at 14:23 with 8851/8208, 38 mixed freight, 8 wells/10 containers, 73 empty wells.

121 was into Greenville Jct. at 08:18 with 8208/8851, 100 wells/208 containers, 4 mixed freight.

[Edited at 16:38]

120 was into Greenville Jct. at 15:18 with 8795/8624, 15 wells/26 containers, 15 empty wells, 52 mixed freight (including 19 loaded autoracks).

The second berth is going to be getting ship dockings this month. That was stated at the PSJ Annual General Meeting a couple of days ago. From the DPW schedule it looks like June 29th is the most likely date. The NYK REMUS and the LIVORNO EXPRESS are both scheduled to arrive at 1100 hrs on the 29th. One of those ships is likely to be the new cranes' first customer.

PSJ also stated that they are keeping pace with 2022 on TEU volume (151K). The second berth opening may be able to boost PSJ over 2022 totals.

121 was into Greenville Jct. at 09:40 with 8624, 67 wells/116 containers, 8795 (DPU), 14 wells/23 containers, 49 mixed freight.

120 was into Greenville Jct. at 12:27 with 8208/8851, 44 mixed freight (16 autoracks), 28 wells/48 containers, 1 empty well.

121 was into Greenville Jct. at 08:40 with 8851/7023, 62 wells/134 containers, 8811 (DPU), 56 mixed freight.

[Edited at 16:22]

120 was into Greenville Jct. at 14:28 with 8580/8508, 20 wells/30 containers, 99 empty wells.

container ship arriving tonight from Belgium.

I'd guess the vessel noted by Mr. F7 is the m/v Caucedo Express.

https://www.sjport.com/daily-vessel-report

Now what would be interesting to learn is how many containers will she unload and how many of those will use rail (CP-M or CN's "roundabout" routing) for the forward move?

Now of those to be routed over CP-M, how many of those would be more advantageously routed over Chessie if she had a railroad to handle them (rails atop mud, or otherwise FRA Class 1, don't count).

And the final; how many more vessels could the Port of Saint John attract at such time that Chessie has a viable road? I'd like to think her "footmen" spent enough time "on the ground" to ascertain what is needed to have the Maine Central become not less than FRA Class 2.