Amtrak Borealis: fka Empire Builder 2nd Daily Frequency Chicago - St Paul

Let’s think of the math. Significant EB revenue from sleeper pax and other longer distance travelers, 16% increase in overall pax which mathematically has to cluster in short-haul pax. MSP-Chgo made up only a portion of pre-Botealis short-distance riders. Decline in revenue.

MSP-Chgo ticket prices would have to fall off a cliff to cause that. They’d have to be giving away EB tickets on the MSP segment in large numbers. Were they charging $400 for a Chgo-Ms trip previously? LOL let’s keep grasping at straws to find a way to criticize this experiment.

The curiosity seekers line is gonna be requoted forever! A wonderful distillation of knee-jerk cynicism. For years, sober minds had to remind railfans there aren’t enough of them to have a serious effect on ridership. That it can only work if it provides a serious transportation alternative. And now when a train takes off, it’s the rail cynics who are like “that’s just all those tailfans!”

It really only works to locate the revenue issue in sleeper ticket revenue.

ryanwc wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 11:09 am And now when a train takes off, it’s the rail cynics who are like “that’s just all those tailfans!”

But has total ridership increased since Borealis? The trains were mostly full between Milwaukee and Chicago before. It's a four Horizon coaches with a five cafe/business class car on the train. Since the introduction of this train, the Empire Builder runs with one less Superliner coach. A Superliner ADA coach has 74 seats, a Horizon ADA coach has 68 seats. The legroom for each seat in the Superliner is noticeably more than in the Horizon.
Because Amtrak has removed a coach from the Empire Builder, it is going to have to have less ridership than before between St. Paul and Chicago where that coach was added.. Less seats means less ridership.
Because Amtrak has extended two already existing Hiawatha trains beyond Milwaukee to St. Paul, the capacity between Milwaukee to Chicago has also decreased, by the same Superliner car missing on the Empire Builder. But has gained seating capacity by replacing that same Superliner car on the Empire Builder with four Borealis Horizon cars between Milwaukee and St. Paul.
The question needing answering is will the increase ridership between Milwaukee and St. Paul exceed the decrease ridership between Milwaukee and Chicago. Only new data and the future will answer that question.
As for why the Borealis (extended Hiawatha) trains are now full to capacity when the weren't before, the answer probably is the now missing Superliner car on the Empire Builder. Less seats means fuller trains. It does not necessarily mean more ridership because both these train cars are fuller between Milwaukee and Chicago.

They should have added more cars on the Borealis today. Empire Builder is 13 & 1/2 hours late. Time keeping on the western trains this summer has been terrible!

ryanwc wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 11:09 am And now when a train takes off, it’s the rail cynics who are like “that’s just all those tailfans!”.

What would lobsters be doing riding the Borealis?

dgvrengineer wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 1:15 pm They should have added more cars on the Borealis today. Empire Builder is 13 & 1/2 hours late. Time keeping on the western trains this summer has been terrible!

And now you know why I suggested a reserve Borealis train set for such lateness. Time it to what the Empire Builder would of run, and you'll take care of all those passengers.

electricron wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 11:40 am

ryanwc wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2024 11:09 am And now when a train takes off, it’s the rail cynics who are like “that’s just all those tailfans!”

But has total ridership increased since Borealis? The trains were mostly full between Milwaukee and Chicago before. It's a four Horizon coaches with a five cafe/business class car on the train. Since the introduction of this train, the Empire Builder runs with one less Superliner coach. A Superliner ADA coach has 74 seats, a Horizon ADA coach has 68 seats. The legroom for each seat in the Superliner is noticeably more than in the Horizon.
Because Amtrak has removed a coach from the Empire Builder, it is going to have to have less ridership than before between St. Paul and Chicago where that coach was added.. Less seats means less ridership.
Because Amtrak has extended two already existing Hiawatha trains beyond Milwaukee to St. Paul, the capacity between Milwaukee to Chicago has also decreased, by the same Superliner car missing on the Empire Builder. But has gained seating capacity by replacing that same Superliner car on the Empire Builder with four Borealis Horizon cars between Milwaukee and St. Paul.
The question needing answering is will the increase ridership between Milwaukee and St. Paul exceed the decrease ridership between Milwaukee and Chicago. Only new data and the future will answer that question.
As for why the Borealis (extended Hiawatha) trains are now full to capacity when the weren't before, the answer probably is the now missing Superliner car on the Empire Builder. Less seats means fuller trains. It does not necessarily mean more ridership because both these train cars are fuller between Milwaukee and Chicago.

If you read the last couple dozen posts in this thread, you'll find the data that refutes your assertions. Even with the Borealis, Empire Builder ridership was up by thousands.

Trying to make definitive analysis off of 3 months of Borealis data is a fool's errand.

Once you have some year over year comps you can make some real determinations.

Start digging into the Empire Builder data, and compare that to other long-distance routes to see if the same revenue shortfall is starting to appear.

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>start digging...

I feel like my ratio of providing new information in this thread vs. opinions has been pretty high. I'm curious to know what you find if you start.

Nah, I'll leave that work to the other armchair analysts. I've already said it's too soon to make any rational assessments. When there's good year over year data, I'll pay attention.

Until then, there's going to be noise in the initial data. There's the curiousity seekers you despise hearing about, taking a coach off the Builder, and I'm sure there might be other factors like spikes in gas prices pushing some last-minute trips to the train.

When Buccee's opens up north of Madison in 2025 or 2026, I'm sure those numbers will shift again.... their brisket sandwich is better than anything Amtrak would serve.

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 12:19 am When Buccee's opens up north of Madison in 2025 or 2026, I'm sure those numbers will shift again.... their brisket sandwich is better than anything Amtrak would serve.

Come on man, not just better but a million times better.

Dont even joke about Bucee's, their bbq brisket is darn good and the texas cheesesteak burrito is dynamite. And the bathrooms are spotless.

Buccees makes driving great again....

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eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 10:20 am Buccees makes driving great again....

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I'm still waiting for Sheetz to come down near BWI. They just opened one up north of (but close to) Baltimore. All we have of similar ilk is Wawa and Royal Farms. Buccees would be welcome.

QuikTrip is still my go-to for quality.

For those unfamiliar... 100 pumps and parking for 500 is the average footprint of a Buccees.

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2024 2:53 pm QuikTrip is still my go-to for quality.

For those unfamiliar... 100 pumps and parking for 500 is the average footprint of a Buccees.

Yeah, that's not going to happen in Central Maryland... alas...

But to get back on track here, I just realized there's a comparison to be made here: SEPTA's expansion to Wawa, PA off their Media/Wawa line. The issue though is that the Wawa station is a mile away up US-1 with partial sidewalk coverage... but the turkey dinner sub is very very tasty.