• Amtrak Borealis: fka Empire Builder 2nd Daily Frequency Chicago - St Paul

  • Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.
Discussion related to Amtrak also known as the National Railroad Passenger Corp.

Moderators: GirlOnTheTrain, mtuandrew, Tadman

  by ryanwc
 
That's pretty well done, and I appreciate the instinct to dig in under the press releases. However:

>Using an average capacity of 125 seats, that’s roughly 3,300 seats each way in the air corridor

As I had posted above, the actual usage of the air corridor is available. You don't need to make assumptions. And he is simply wrong, exaggerating it by nearly 50%.

>Amtrak’s data only measures direct costs like crew and fuel and microwave pizza. It doesn’t include indirect costs shared by Borealis and the Builder and items like debt service and depreciation, etc

Yeah, this is what I said above - it's meeting operating expenses, but there are likely asterisks.

On the other hand, most importantly, he wrote
> $300,000 in gross ticket revenue but $600,000 in operating revenue. That other $300,000 constitutes state subsidies to the train.

This is good new information. It is something I suspected but didn't figure out how to explore -- the "profit" is basically that it didn't need all of its subsidies. A good thing, but hardly true profit.

But I suspect this is the reason that they're talking about adding the third frequency so soon. They have already appropriated money on hand to cover it.

The bottom line he misses, though, is that few MSP-Chgo travelers yet know about the service, and that should mean gradual, incremental growth for at least a year and probably more. Ridership held strong in June, proving that the early results weren't rail fans.
  by Tadman
 
ryanwc wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:36 am The bottom line he misses, though, is that few MSP-Chgo travelers yet know about the service, and that should mean gradual, incremental growth for at least a year and probably more. Ridership held strong in June, proving that the early results weren't rail fans.
That's a big deal. I suspect they picked this route becuase it was easy in terms of host. Now they have to (a) let more people know, (b) win them over from airines.

The second part is no small feat because Chicago is a hub for many airlines and MSP is a hub for Delta, ergo you have lots of nonstop rides between MSP and Chicago. IF they focus advertising on cities without major airports they can win over people whos only option is the car.

This leads to another thought - when selecting the next big thing, shouldn't they focus on cities with less hubbably air transport? Green Bay, Traverse City, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Louisville, Toledo, Cinci, Memphis, Saint Louis, KC... I dont think any of these are major hubs for the big three airines plus SWA.
  by eolesen
 
ryanwc wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2024 9:36 am >Using an average capacity of 125 seats, that’s roughly 3,300 seats each way in the air corridor

As I had posted above, the actual usage of the air corridor is available. You don't need to make assumptions. And he is simply wrong, exaggerating it by nearly 50%.
And as I posted, be careful with the DOT data....

He is wrong.... but in the opposite direction. It's possible that the average daily seats is less, but there are almost 4,000 seats a day each way on Fridays.

Here's the raw Friday schedule. There are 30 flights a day between ORD/MDW and MSP. Average of 131 seats per flight.
Code: Select all
0605    DL    B717    130
0715    UA    B739    160
0800    WN    B737    160    MDW
0825    AA    E170    70
0918    DL    E175    70     MDW
0939    DL    A320    150
1005    WN    B737    150    MDW
1150    WN    B738    160    MDW
1207    AA    E170    70
1233    DL    B717    130
1247    UA    B739    160
1415    UA    B739    160
1415    AA    E170    70
1424    DL    E175    70     MDW
1540    WN    B738    160    MDW
1541    AA    B738    160
1550    DL    B717    130
1600    UA    B738    160
1705    WN    B738    160    MDW
1715    DL    A220    100
1919    DL    E175    70     MDW
1947    AA    E170    70
1959    UA    B739    160
2005    SY    B738    160
2025    UA    B739    160
2030    DL    B717    130
2045    UA    B737    150
2050    WN    B738    160    MDW
2102    AA    B737    150
2140    UA    B738    160
Feel free to validate those numbers or perhaps adjust the capacities from what I have for generic seatmaps, but your assertion that it's over-estimating the market by 30-50% is simply wrong.

And, a mea culpa to Tadman -- DL does indeed have E175's out of MDW that I overlooked.
  by David Benton
 
No form of transport makes a profit , without subsidy of some kind.
The train is not run to make a profit , it is run as a service to the states involved, and the people involved .
  by RandallW
 
We should note that the Carolinian and Piedmont were both poor performers early in their career; had NC decided to cancel the Piedmont based on initial poor performance, and not brought back the Carolinian after cancelling it for poor performance, we wouldn't be looking at any service other than LD trains south of DC now.
  by dgvrengineer
 
Either equipment is getting very tight or Borealis is taking some of the Empire Builder's coach passengers as the EB has been operating with one less Seattle coach on all consists this week. I would think in prime season they would need two coaches on the Seattle section. The Portland section still has two coaches.
  by eolesen
 
superbad wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2024 5:58 pm If Amtrak has such and equipment shortage would it be a possibly for them to borrow Metra Cars on weekends runs of this train add capacity?
Not gonna happen.
  by Tadman
 
I don't know that I'd want to ride a Metra car for 3+ hours. But there are two equipment sets for the 90min Hiawatha that could easily lease those used Caltrains bilevels and free up about ten horizons.
  by STrRedWolf
 
Think about it this way for those along the NEC and had the "fortune" of riding MARC's older I/II series fleets... during Thanksgiving and Christmas as holiday specials, pre-pandemic. It would be like that.
  by eolesen
 
Tadman wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 9:42 am I don't know that I'd want to ride a Metra car for 3+ hours. But there are two equipment sets for the 90min Hiawatha that could easily lease those used Caltrains bilevels and free up about ten horizons.
I know you want those Caltrains bi-levels, but if that's the approach, then skip a step and follow the precedent that ILDOT's doing with Chicago-Rockford --- contract out Chicago-Milwaukee entirely to Metra. With ridership down 50% and still down 50%, you could easily free up 10-15 cars. Defer some retirements driven by the SD70MACH orders, and you have power.

That would allow the Borealis to go to 3x daily...
  by Tadman
 
eolesen wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 10:28 am I know you want those Caltrains bi-levels, but if that's the approach, then skip a step and follow the precedent that ILDOT's doing with Chicago-Rockford --- contract out Chicago-Milwaukee entirely to Metra. With ridership down 50% and still down 50%, you could easily free up 10-15 cars. Defer some retirements driven by the SD70MACH orders, and you have power.

That would allow the Borealis to go to 3x daily...
Hadn't thought of this, but given the down ridership on Metra this makes a lot of sense. I've been saying for years that Amtrak has no business running this route. They treat it like the Northwest Chief, make you wait in a little room and line up to board, only open a few doors.

Suck-ola.

Should be 3-5 gallery cars with all doors open auto soon as she pulls in. Like any commuter train.
  by superbad
 
The same could be down with Northstar sets. Don't they have quite a few sitting around? I know one proposed run on the Borealis route is what I presume with be a and AM train to Saint Paul from LaCrosse. A Northstar set could be used for that.
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