Amtrak Borealis: fka Empire Builder 2nd Daily Frequency Chicago - St Paul

Most "feeder" operations (branded as American Eagle, Delta Connection, United Express, et al) exclusively operate aircraft with capacities of <80 passengers, so those numbers shouldn't be surprising since MSP is a Delta hub (so it's all Delta Connection feeders from Chicago Midway for Delta pax) and O'Hare is a United hub (so mostly feeders to O'Hare since frequency would be more valuable than pax per flight to United in competition with Delta).

What I can't tell from either the DOT statistics for MSP or the Borealis announcements are how much of the MSP-Chicago traffic continues on to other destinations.

ryanwc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:34 am That's surprisingly low to me, but I looked it up, and the market is indeed about 2,000 pax/day (DOT city pair stats)

For a high level "finger in the air" analysis, it's more than adequate, but I'd suggest being careful using DOT T-100 data too far out of context if that's what you're going by. It's based on origin-destination, and doesn't include people connecting beyond either MSP or ORD/MDW.

It's also only a 10% sample (based on the last digit of the ticket number, so there's no real ability to game the numbers), and there's no data provided on tickets issued by foreign airlines, so you won't see what Star Alliance, oneworld or Skyteam partners have ticketed on UA, AA, or DL, and that could be significant with all three having hubs at either ORD or MSP.

RandallW wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:17 pm Most "feeder" operations (branded as American Eagle, Delta Connection, United Express, et al) exclusively operate aircraft with capacities of <80 passengers, so those numbers shouldn't be surprising since MSP is a Delta hub (so it's all Delta Connection feeders from Chicago Midway for Delta pax) and O'Hare is a United hub (so mostly feeders to O'Hare since frequency would be more valuable than pax per flight to United in competition with Delta).

There's no United Express or Delta Connection operating MSP-ORD. It's all >100 seat aircraft on both United and Delta.

ryanwc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:34 am The market share tweet implies that the 25 flights carry an average of 80 passengers. (300=15% of 2,000; 2,000 / 25 = 80.)

That's surprisingly low to me, but I looked it up, and the market is indeed about 2,000 pax/day (DOT city pair stats) and about 25 flights (Expedia with major carriers except SWA = 22). Some airlines must fly small planes on that route.

I know Delta flies Embraers on that route and MSP is a hub for them. Also I think it's only fair to include MKE-MSP air traffic in this number as well, and perhaps Madison-MSP or South Bend-MSP. Delta probably picks up folks from all those passenger pools that could ride Amtrak Borealis.

ryanwc wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:34 amI think some of this is induced demand. And of course, a lot of it is not Chicago--MSP, but Chicago-Milwaukee. So in the end, I think this train has limited impact on air travel. But adding a 3rd frequency might.

That's the big question, are they controlling for existing Hiawatha passengers. If the FRA weren't so rigid about their add-drop rules (which are only recent, past 20 years or so) they could add/drop in MKE.

Or perhaps a cross-platform connection in MKE would be smart. A 3-car + cafe/lounge Borealis with regional seating meets a 5-7 car Hi with commuter seating. Also the cafe doesn't have to make a 4-hour roundtrip to Chicago which is really not necessary anyway.

Are the Airos coming with ECP.? That might allow for quick coupling of trains with the ECP doing the testing from the lead loco??

There has never been a westbound on time into MSP. In fact during the period May 21-July 4 only 5
1333 trains made it there 10 minutes or less LT. One 1340 made it OT into Chicago and 13 10 minutes
or less LT. Are the trains still running with a unit on each end?
Andy

Pax average went up from 605 / day in the rump of May to 618 in June. No word on revenues but that’s enough to reassure me the May figures weren’t just fan trips.

Who cares is the Borealis is 10-25 minute late? It's way better than an Empire Builder that is hours late or never shows up.

It's indeed encouraging that this new service is doing well. Already, there appears "to be talk" of an "Afternoon Hi", but now that "my MILW" is single tracked West of MKE and CPKC, in the effort to "soothe" the merger agreement, didn't fight tooth and nail. It may be a different story should there be an initiative for a third frequency.

The agreement with CPKC spelled out requirements for "improvements" to support a second frequency, while still allowing the service to start before such improvements were made. The incremental requirements to support a third frequency should be relatively small, as I'm sure the first batch will result in some overbuilding.

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:56 pm Or it's time to raise prices...

Yikes...you should work for Amtrak...

superbad wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:19 am Who cares is the Borealis is 10-25 minute late? It's way better than an Empire Builder that is hours late or never shows up.

Amtrak needs to stick to the current schedule that's outlined and work with host railroads etc. to try and get the train to operate on time, as once time is added to the schedule, it'll never come off. I'd rather see the train up to 30 minutes late on average and Amtrak and host railroads working to try and figure out where they can reduce time. Amtrak doesn't do itself any favors by scanning passengers' tickets before they board on this particular route. Check tickets onboard and making rounds through the train after each station stop to check tickets is very worthwhile and saves time so passengers can just board (like was done for eons). This morning I saw passengers board the Capitol Limited and then the Lake Shore Limited. Conductors were scanning tickets as passengers boarded and it definitely caused delays........

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:34 am It's indeed encouraging that this new service is doing well. Already, there appears "to be talk" of an "Afternoon Hi", but now that "my MILW" is single tracked West of MKE and CPKC, in the effort to "soothe" the merger agreement, didn't fight tooth and nail. It may be a different story should there be an initiative for a third frequency.

Eastbound for example, the morning Empire Builder (when on time) works well. Was hoping that the eastbound Borealis would have had an afternoon departure to start, but instead it got a late morning departure. A third departure will likely bring about that morning, mid-day, and afternoon departure that would make a bit more sense and greater utility for this emerging corridor.

Trains this past weekend were absolutely packed. How hard is it to add more cars to Borealis now that new equipment exists elsewhere?

Pretty interesting charts on Borealis speeds from redditor:
https://imgur.com/a/LL7QU0y

I believe it’s poorly named, and actually means how close they came to meeting the incremental minutes in the schedule. It does help you see where issues occur.

https://tcbmag.com/is-the-amtrak-boreal ... rofitable/

Interesting analysis that throws a little bit of cold water on all of the high-fiving being done by the train enthusiast community over ridership.

Correctly zeroes in on the fact that fewer than 200 people are riding north of Milwaukee, and also provides a more realistic view of how many seats are in the Chicago - Minneapolis Air Market and what percentage Amtrak might be eating into.

If the Borealis ridership is mostly poaching away ridership on the Empire Builder because of its abysmal reliability, this may just be a better indicator of why the long distance network should be sacrificed for more corridor trains.