2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

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BandA
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by BandA » Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:44 am

Lets summarize: One crew + two other crew members, presumably both engineers = 3 crews out of commission. 16 round trips. Affected 600 passengers. Keolis presumably called around, but nobody wanted to work on Father's day. Bus drivers apparently willing to work. 600passengers/32 trips = less than 20 passengers on each train!!!

dm1120
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by dm1120 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:07 am

BandA wrote:
Lets summarize: One crew + two other crew members, presumably both engineers = 3 crews out of commission. 16 round trips. Affected 600 passengers. Keolis presumably called around, but nobody wanted to work on Father's day. Bus drivers apparently willing to work. 600passengers/32 trips = less than 20 passengers on each train!!!
The Sunday schedule is so atrocious that even if more people wanted to ride they wouldn't be able to because the times don't work. Unfortunately for the 20 or so people per trip who this messed up, this was probably their only transportation option yesterday.

I still find it hard to believe that no one wanted overtime.

chrisf
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by chrisf » Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:15 am

BandA wrote:
Lets summarize: One crew + two other crew members, presumably both engineers = 3 crews out of commission. 16 round trips. Affected 600 passengers. Keolis presumably called around, but nobody wanted to work on Father's day. Bus drivers apparently willing to work. 600passengers/32 trips = less than 20 passengers on each train!!!
I would contend that Keolis has not displayed any indication that they have a real idea of how many people ride their trains.

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BandA
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by BandA » Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:33 am

600 passengers could have been the count of people who actually took the replacement buses, and "16 round trips" seems like a lot of runs for three crews. Maybe 16 trips not round trips.

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by dm1120 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:18 pm

chrisf wrote:
BandA wrote:
Lets summarize: One crew + two other crew members, presumably both engineers = 3 crews out of commission. 16 round trips. Affected 600 passengers. Keolis presumably called around, but nobody wanted to work on Father's day. Bus drivers apparently willing to work. 600passengers/32 trips = less than 20 passengers on each train!!!
I would contend that Keolis has not displayed any indication that they have a real idea of how many people ride their trains.
How can they? They dont know how many pass holders are on board a given train because they don't have portable readers and pass holders are the majority of CR riders.

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dbperry
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by dbperry » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:27 pm

I'll bet it was more than 2 or 3 crews, based on what I heard from my sources.

Also, it was speculated and a source confirmed that they are unable to go very far down the 'call-down' list due to hours of service issues interfering with Monday AM commutes. In other words, if they call too far down the spare or extra board, then there won't be anyone left for Monday AM. Not sure of the details on this issue, but multiple sources indicated it played a part.

Ridership numbers are almost certainly an estimate or a guesstimate. See my post in the new "State of Commuter Rail" thread...
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by MBTA F40PH-2C 1050 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:45 pm

Sunday was a wide range of issues, yes a part of HOS and other reasons. Wont get into too many details, but more than 2-3 crews not available. A grand total of 35 trains IIRC cancelled 6/19

Komarovsky
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by Komarovsky » Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:08 am

Car on the tracks near Yawkey this morning has really screwed up the Worcester line at around 5:30. Don't have time for a full recap, but cascaded to the point where 552 is running semi local, possibly full local.

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by MBTA F40PH-2C 1050 » Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:31 pm

2012 failed on 1805 yesterday, July 4th on the Providence line, she couldn't go over the 4th notch/30 mph...had to be rescued in PVD by 1807 with the tired, but reliable 1072

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by Komarovsky » Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:18 pm

The new schedule has been out for a little over a month now and there have been enough week days to start looking at the first 31 days of OTP for peak trains, off peak trains and the daily cumulative OTP for the Worcester Line. The data below comes from the MBTA performance dashboard http://www.mbtabackontrack.com/performa ... eliability and is split into peak, off peak and total for each line by day.

Let's take a look at the peak OTP first since those trains are the most important to most people and carry a great deal of people within a short period of time:

Image
Full sized version: http://i.imgur.com/PrSg2gJ.png

First thing to note is the absolutely abysmal OTP for the past 31 days of weekday trains. The Worcester line never hits it's 90% OTP target, the closest it comes is 71% OTP and the average peak OTP is 53%. Aside from the terrible OTP, take a look at the way variability in the OTP, it's all over the place! It makes me wonder what's happening on a day to day basis that's causing such variable OTP not only within a small window, but over the entire 31 day sample. There were not heat restriction delays during this time and I would have assumed that the tie replacement project would have resulted in pretty uniform delays instead of the extreme spread we see here.

While peak train OTP is important we shouldn't forget about the trains that are off peak since they serve reverse commuters, tourists etc.

Image
Full sized version: http://i.imgur.com/AMJ1OpR.png

Even though the off peak trains tend to have far fewer boarding/alightings and in my experience some schedule padding the OTP is still pretty awful, although not as bad as the peak trains. The off peak OTP also fails to hit the 90% target with a peak OTP of 76% and an average OTP of 60% and while the OTP isn't nearly quite as variable day to day as the peak OTP its still all over the on a day to day basis(except for the last few days of the sample and then it plunges). In this case again the variability in delays is too high IMHO to be explained only by the tie replacement and the weather provides no excuses either, so whatever phenomenon that's impacting the peak trains is also impacting the off peak trains. Is this the MBTA's problem with reliable power/power shortage rearing it's head on the Worcester line?

Another new feature of the new schedule is the removal of interlined trains, with each line getting a dedicated set of trainsets for each day's operation. Given this, I'd expect to see a relationship between daily OTP for both peak and off peak trains.

Image
Full sized version: http://i.imgur.com/ztFtuCd.png

Hmmm, we'll that's interesting. There are certainly days where the peak and off peak OTP follow each other very closely, notably between days 18 and 23, but there are other stretches where off peak OTP goes up but peak OTP goes down and vice versa. Clearly there is at least one factor that impacts both peak and off peak trains in the same way but there are other factors that impact both peak and off peak differently. If we had more data on the cause of delays per train as well as the delay per train perhaps we could do a more advanced analysis of the factors that delay trains and their impact on daily OTP.

Finally let's look at the overall OTP to see what this looks like at a more global level:

Image
Full sized version: http://i.imgur.com/k2TZPqm.png

Again there's no getting away from the terrible OTP and the variability. This chart does give an interesting view of how if you weren't a regular rider of peak or off peak trains you might not think that OTP is either so great or so terrible on a whole. It also smooths out the day to day variability a bit and you can see there were streaks towards the later half of the 31 days where performance oscillated quite a bit in over the period of a few days.

I hope that this has been interesting to the people on this board and that it'll allow us all a bit better understanding of CR OTP. In the future I hope to have time to automate this process so it can be done for all the lines so we can have a picture of performance not only line by line, but system wide.

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by MBTA F40PH-2C 1050 » Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:38 pm

The 2030 gave her last breath in Mansfield this afternoon on #820...made it about 2 coaches out of the station before going belly up...had to be rescued by #822

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by Komarovsky » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:57 pm

After a lightening strike that knocked out the signals on the Worcester line between Ashland and Southboro this afternoon, a train set died at the platform at Union Station(519 maybe?). Now the chatter on the conductor radios is what 521(now sitting at cp43ish) is going to do.

.

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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by octr202 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:55 am

Northside is picking up the slack this morning (Tues 7/19). So far from the T Alerts:

Eastern:
-191 will run to Newburyport in place of 153 which is cancelled.
-156 will operate on schedule but with a reduced consist.
-192 is cancelled.

Fitchburg:
-406 is cancelled.
-408 will run local (delays likely) to cover 406's stops.

And that's just before 7:30 AM!
Wondering if I'll see the Haverhill double-tracking finished before I retire...
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by dbperry » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:30 pm

new blog post up about sneaky little trick on the Framingham-Worcester line this AM:

http://framwormbta.weebly.com/blog/disa ... rain-names" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: 2016 Commuter Rail Delay Discussion Thread

Post by octr202 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:53 pm

Appears equipment shortage continues up North: Just alterted that Reading local turn 293/294 is cancelled tonight. No word if 215 will run local - I guess not since alert said use next train at 5:35 PM (which is 217).

Edit/update: 215 will run local. Now also seeing T Alerts that 331 and 221 will run ~15 minutes late, issued at about 5:20 PM.
Wondering if I'll see the Haverhill double-tracking finished before I retire...
Photo: Melbourne W7 No. 1019 on Route 78, Bridge & Church Streets, Richmond, Victoria. 10/21/2010

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