Subway Trains to Hoverboards???

[lpetrich]

NYC's Subway Should Be Full of Hoverboards Instead - The Atlantic "The New York City Subway Is Beyond Repair -- Forget trains. It’s time for something radically different." by Peter Wayner

The New York City subway is a miracle, especially at 3 a.m. on a Friday night. But the system is also falling apart, and it’s going to cost billions to keep the old trains running: $19 billion, at least according to one estimate from city planners. The time has come to give up on the 19th-century idea of public transportation, and leap for the autonomous future.

Right now, fully autonomous cars are rolling around Pittsburgh, the San Francisco Bay area, and parts of Michigan, shuttling people from here to there with minimal manual intervention. Instead of fixing the old trains, let’s rip out the tracks and fill the tunnels with fleets of autonomous vehicles running on pavement. The result would be radical improvements in throughput while saving money and increasing the ability of the system to survive a fire, flood, or terrorist attack.

PW has in mind not only autonomous cars, but also this:

Autonomous vehicles, by contrast, can be incredibly lithe, especially if you skip over the car-shaped models and head for the super-lightweight transports called “hoverboards” or “scooters.” These clever devices with computer-driven balancing look a bit like skateboards but carry enough battery power to go a dozen miles or more.

I cannot believe that this is serious.

I remembered during the construction of the BART Dublin-Pleasanton extension that someone explained to someone who lost their property to the extension that the BART tracks have the capacity of a 10-lane freeway. But I wanted some numbers, so I checked on Metro Operations Planning, and I found (numbers rounded from Figure 3):

• Small People Movers: 5,000 - 20,000 pphpd ... 10 - 30 km/h avg. speed
• Light Rail: 10,000 - 30,000 pphpd ... 20 - 40 km/h
• Light Metro: 15,000 - 45,000 pphpd ... 25 - 45 km/h
• Heavy Metro: 30,000 - 100,000 pphpd ... 30 - 50 km/h

pphpd = passengers per hour per direction, These classifications are *not* very precise.

Of self-balancing scooters, the Segway is the best-known to me, and checking on its Wikipedia article, I find that the greatest top speed of a Segway model is around 20 km/h (13 mph). So not stopping won't help this one very much.

Basic Freeway Capacity Studies, Basic Freeway Segments Capacity Analysis, 2000 Highway Capacity Manual, Chapter 23 -- the capacity of a freeway lane is typically 1500 - 2000 flat-road cars per hour. To compete with the more capacious urban-rail systems with the same number of lanes/tracks will require very stuffed flat-road cars.

So PW's numbers don't work out.

[mtuandrew]

Mr. Wayner speaks like a man who has no actual concept of either transit operations or construction costs.

[SouthernRailway]

Is this the same magazine that years ago also proposed ripping out the tracks and replacing subways with buses underground? Then it also didn’t take into account the higher number of passengers per hour thatvsubways can carry.

[Backshophoss]

The Editor of the Atlantic needs a shrink,or to retire NOW.

[ConstanceR46]

This is the absolute worst take you could make on the subway system; it is so full of Metrosexual, Bougie, tech-bro smug that a mere mention of it can spark gentrification within a 25 mile radius. This is the most stupid thing i have ever read, and ever will read.

[Backshophoss]

The Author along with the Atlantic's editorial staff need to be committed to Harlem Valley "mental" Hospital at Wingdale for treatment NOW!

[MACTRAXX]

Everyone: PW has perhaps watched too many episodes of "The Jetsons" and think that everyone
will have a vehicle capable of flight along with living further up in the air...Spacely Space Sprockets
or Cogswell Cogs anyone? Did anyone ever notice that the ground area was never shown in any of
"The Jetsons" cartoons making one wonder what the state of the earth's surface was to become?
Back in the 1960s Hanna-Barbara were so imaginative with "The Jetsons" (and "The Flintstones").
Even with "The Jetsons" look into the future we all now know what really did happen. Anyone of a
certain age that remembers either growing up with or regularly watching either one can relate...

After further reading the suggestions in this article I think that PW has been influenced by SYFY or
something futuristic along those lines...I saw nothing about how any kind of real life problems can
be handled such as traffic jams or congestion, manual operation and maintenance and the ever
present problem of driving while under the influence which in itself is bad enough...MACTRAXX

[chrsjrcj]

Most likely a member of the Elon Musk cult, and a believer that a hyperloop in 2 years will take him from the 'burbs of LA to the 'burbs of San Fran in 30 minutes.

[ConstanceR46]

chris, as someone into transport and somewhat into space, i cannot tell you how much hatred i have in my little heart for musk and his rats.

[djlong]

Speaking as a realistic fan of Elon Musk....

Yeah, the most rabid fans will keep unrealistically dreaming of things "just around the corner". But I wouldn't underestimate Musk. When you look at the list of things he's done that Nobody Has Done Before, it's impressive. The *one* thing he has *repeatedly* failed to do is estimate time properly. But, then, it's hard to come up with a planning schedule when you have no examples of one before you. I mean, this is a guy who started his own rocket company with his own money, invented his own rockets and now outperforms NASA, Roskosmos (the Russians), the Chinese and ULA. Never mind what he's done for Tesla (full disclosure, I'm a Tesla stockholder and own a Tesla Model 3).

When it comes to Hyperloop, I'm waiting for proof that it HAS failed, since prototypes are already exceeding 100 mph.

When it comes to his proposals for a warren of subterranean transport tunnels under LA, I'll wait until studies show what kind of capacity they'll have.

He's already impressed enough people in Chicago to win THAT contract. If he comes in late and over budget, instead of screaming about that, compare it to how late and over budget previous projects have come in - and see how it compares to THAT.

[chrsjrcj]

When it comes to Hyperloop, I'm waiting for proof that it HAS failed, since prototypes are already exceeding 100 mph.
\

We already have high speed trains, maglevs, and airplanes that regularly exceed that on a daily basis, while actually carrying fare paying passengers.

[electricron]

When it comes to Hyperloop, I'm waiting for proof that it HAS failed, since prototypes are already exceeding 100 mph.
He's already impressed enough people in Chicago to win THAT contract.

100 mph isn’t the promised 300 or 400 mph. HSR trains already go over 200 mph. 100 mph speeds don’t improve the state of the art.
Winning a contract doesn’t mean it will work. Come back after the project has been built and entered service and report how much better it is.

[ConstanceR46]

Yeah, the most rabid fans will keep unrealistically dreaming of things "just around the corner". But I wouldn't underestimate Musk. When you look at the list of things he's done that Nobody Has Done Before, it's impressive. The *one* thing he has *repeatedly* failed to do is estimate time properly. But, then, it's hard to come up with a planning schedule when you have no examples of one before you. I mean, this is a guy who started his own rocket company with his own money, invented his own rockets and now outperforms NASA, Roskosmos (the Russians), the Chinese and ULA. Never mind what he's done for Tesla (full disclosure, I'm a Tesla stockholder and own a Tesla Model 3).

Except he hasn't outperformed Roscosmos until we have a Dragon carrying crew docking fully-automated to the ISS, AKA the same thing Roscosmos has been doing for years. Tesla is literally a union-busting hellscape that is making Model 3s in tents.

When it comes to Hyperloop, I'm waiting for proof that it HAS failed, since prototypes are already exceeding 100 mph.

A T-1 steamer could have topped that. Hell, a E6 atlantic could top that, and a E6 can carry a lot more.