Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Discussion relating to commuter rail, light rail, and subway operations of the MBTA.

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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby Arlington » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:46 am

F-line to Dudley via Park wrote:There's no solve for this. The law is abundantly clear on slope limits for a platform, and this location is an absolute no-go.

Wynn's got a lot of earth-moving equipment (and tons of fill dirt) at his disposal [or did...I guess we missed that window]. Is the ROW wide enough to raise a berm/viaduct to gentle the slope to the bridge?
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:06 pm

Mod the bridge???? Did you see all the posts about CR schedules are absolutely antithetical to peak casino demand, and how the modes Wynn has actually invested in with real money down are far bigger catchments? Demand has already answered this question beyond shadow of doubt. What compels this drive towards cost-be-damned Civil Engineering Strongman Competition? Make a business case first that it must be so before dispatching the earth-moving equipment. You need to counterpoint Wynn's own business conclusion that it isn't so before skipping over to design-build hypotheticals no stakeholder has asked for.
Last edited by CRail on Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Quote of the entire preceding post removed
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby Trainman101 » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:29 pm

The business case could be:
6 Weekend casino stops per weekend (Saturday/Sunday).
Each train bringing in 300 people (so 900 people each day).
900 people a day with each spending $100 equals 180,000 in revenue.
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Fri Apr 28, 2017 12:27 am

First...there isn't a non-terminal CR stop on the system that brings in 300 people per train every train, let alone one in Zone 1A that's in walking distance of the Orange Line and doubled-up by shuttle buses diffusing its demand across several modes.

-- Zone 3 Salem, the busiest northside stop and second-busiest CR stop of all, does 2,058 weekday Blue Book boardings spread across 34 daily inbound trains. That's 60 riders per train projected across the whole service day, though in real terms that's a lot more riders per train at peak and way way way less riders per train off-peak.

-- Providence, the single busiest CR stop of all and largest outlying destination served by commuter rail, does 2,325 weekday Blue Book boardings spread across 20 daily inbound trains. 116 per train, similarly with a monstrous skew towards rush hour slots and away from off-peak slots.

What mechanism exists for packing 150 per train on just 6 trips on a limited and low-frequency weekend off-peak schedule to a single 33-acre parcel in Zone 1A when that target isn't achievable with the whole of Greater Providence on a weekday??? The Wynn-on-Weekends stop not only would have to hit that inexplicable an outlier on target boardings, but sustain the average every single weekend without fail. Including during the winter tourist offseason, bad weather, and weekends there's no special events at the casino. As one street address' worth of attractions in an area that's in literal eyeshot of several hundred other attractions. We're many orders of magnitude beyond calling this place a mere demand outlier now.


Second...the cost of modifying the bridge grade with backfill is tens of millions in EIS'ing on a navigable river, + design, + construction, + service disruption mitigation. $50M total cost would not be out of the question because this is also touching soil bordering the ex-Monsato property and may need even more intensive environmental remediation if the current embankment is disturbed to the soil base where more nasty stuff is currently capped off. All of that is simply the up-front prerequisite that even allows you a relaxed-enough grade to spend a couple $M more to build the platform at Wynn's front door. Where does the T and Wynn Resorts get an ROI on that extreme a capital-cost prerequisite from Zone 1A receipts after you've downsized that revenue intake with realistic "less than weekday Providence Metro" ridership counts and reduce gross gate receipts to few-to-several $10's of thousands per day instead of $150K?


Third...this still doesn't counterpoint Wynn's own internal transit investment assessment. Wynn Resorts is outright cutting a check to increase OL off-peak service. On weeknights, not weekends, because that is their self-identified surge period. They're funding local shuttle buses to cover the grid, tap the Logan transfers, leverage Silver Line Gateway and all the Seaport-goers. Because they see those transfer points as their main taps into network-effects demand with the rest of the system. This is real money down. What hasn't gotten real money down, or discussions of possible real money: the Purple Line, and specifically a weekender audience.

It's not enough for one citizen to crunch some numbers and hypothesize that the weekender audience may be so huge once it catches on that a 1A stop could out-average Providence for a full weekend. The only thing that matters is that for-profit Wynn Resorts has already studied its profit-enhancing transit options well enough to quote real dollar figures for money it intends to shell out to the T, and made a business decision to put $x down for bus and subway mode enhancements because it would help their profits and $0 for any CR mode enhancements because it wouldn't help their profits. The case for a CR stop isn't a case of tugging at the state's heartstrings that it's a nice-to-have. It's got to be grounded in profit motive and argued direct to Wynn Resorts, who've been winners at this casinos-n'-resorts game long enough to know who their door-to-door demand is. Wynn made a business decision that this mode matters to their margins because it draws ridership from here, here, and there at W, X, Y times of day on Z frequencies...but that mode from somewhere else during some other time of day at some other frequency doesn't hit the right kind of sweet spot. You have to first convince for-profit Wynn that they're sorely mistaken on their own assessment of the Boston market and give them an empirical case that, yes, "that" mode matters way way more than their internals conclude.

Civil Engineering Strongman Competition of couldas & hypotheticals with the bridge doesn't make that case. Neither do novel farebox recovery formulas that show more people want to ride a Saturday schedule slate there than want to commute from Providence to Boston on a weekday. Whatever it is, Wynn's already crunched those numbers themselves to greater precision than any of us amateur casino-mogul accountants are capable of. And they firmly concluded "that" particular source of ridership isn't what's going to tickle their profits like chasing riders on the other modes they are indeed cutting checks for.
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby BvaleShihTzu » Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:57 am

Worth noting also that if they were nearly equal, you'd rather Wynn pump more money into subsidizing off-peak Orange Line service than building a limited use commuter rail stop. Higher frequency Orange Line service will benefit the entire length of the system and make the Orange Line more attractive to use, rather than just benefiting the casino. Same idea if he will subsidize Silver Line Gateway higher frequencies -- these are wins (Wynns?) over broad areas.
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby wicked » Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:49 pm

Wasn't there some talk of a walkway between Assembly and Wynn?
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Re: Is wynn casino getting a commuter rail stop?

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:37 am

wicked wrote:Wasn't there some talk of a walkway between Assembly and Wynn?

Yes. Being kicked around conceptually right now and Wynn has stated cursory interest in helping if they can prove feasibility. It's basically a bootstrap off of a pre-existing Assembly Row vision that pre-dates the whole casino licensing process by years. Problem is nobody's quite sure of the where and how so it's a bit early to call it a "proposal"...more of an evolving concept.

Most of the concepts focus on Earhart Dam and whether a high walkway could be grafted over the locks, where it only takes 300+ feet to get over and it's right at Assembly OL's front door. What's not clear is how high it would have to go and how many switchback ramps that would take to get up that high, and how they snake around the side of the service building. It definitely isn't going to be something they can rush within couple years of the resort's opening, as more brainstorming is required before the concept gets fleshed-out enough to put to an engineering assessment. The most you can say right now is that stakeholders are actively putting their heads together to see if there's a way, because the upside is self-evident. 2000 ft. door-to-door from the Assembly Orange entrance and the casino entrance (short track overpass already planned between Gateway Center & casino). By far the shortest possible on-foot distance as Alford St. via the Sullivan entrance is ~four-fifths a mile.

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