MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby bostontrainguy » Sat Jan 11, 2014 10:18 am

How about the "rehabilitation of the Falmouth Station"? Is there something new here?
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Sat Jan 11, 2014 1:38 pm

deathtopumpkins wrote:I thought it was implied that traditional CR trains will NOT be making Indigo stops? The map omits dots for them. So as I understand it, at least during peak times, the traditional trains will be running express past the Indigo stops.


That's exactly why it's not going to work. It prohibits most of the scenarios I outlined for these lines to evolve from ever happening. Eastern Route again being where the most failure points are. Salem is so ridership-oversaturated it can't be omitted by any trains whatsoever; that IS a station you build an express to while skipping others. So if the Indigos have to go out there because Lynn isn't nearly enough service for the North Shore or because this is the only way to plausibly turn a train, squaring Zone 3 has to be reckoned with. DMU's probably can't run on 20 min. frequencies at peakmost peak and have to throttle it down by 5-10 mins. when the Newburyport/Rockports (which keep growing) are gobbling their highest hourly % of slots at saturated track capacity, so someone holding an Indigo pass @ Indigo fare ends up seeing a frequency dip at the 8:00am, 5:00pm crunches where they need it most. And worse, if the CR fares to the same stops are more expensive the 9-5'ers will start passing up the push-pulls to overstuff the DMU's. Flipping the advantages of the vehicles on their heads. Those 6-car bi-level push-pulls have the seating capacity to swallow the peakiest of crushes but only do optimal farebox recovery at peak. DMU's can recover costs much better off-peak with their lower seating capacity but can't swallow the crowds. Those 2000+, 9-5'er dominated daily boarders at Salem being forced to pick either/or pricing end up overstuffing the DMU's and leaving lots of seats open on the push-pulls. The push-pulls bleed more money, people can't get seats at Lynn and Chelsea and pass up the DMU, or the T has to buy enough DMU's to run 4+-car sets at only a few hours of the day and confuse its vehicle strategy to the point where it takes heavier losses on all.

Also...what happens for somebody who gets off at Zone 5 Beverly Farms or Hamilton/Wenham if Salem has to get its Indigo-only fare slashed and CR remains different? If the Indigos truly are running that frequently while the branchline trains still require waiting on a specific schedule and 1 out of every X trains...what's to stop them from grabbing the first cheapie to Salem instead of waiting for a branch push-pull, then standing on the Salem platform for a few mins and waiting for the branch train to come...then saving a buck or two with a an Interzone fare that only jumps a couple Zones and getting home at exactly the same time? Any solution has to close up the additional loopholes that could pop up at any one stop. A total whack-a-mole game if they insist on separate fares for separate vehicles. It scales very poorly if you dream about additional Indigos or extended Indigos beyond this map.


Those are just the Salem/Eastern Route-centric big examples where the concept starts to collapse on itself. But start looking at the needs of each individual stop and each individual expansion point and you start to see other failure points creep in with this separation of DMU's and push-pull. It doesn't scale unless the fares are sympatico and can double-up with both types contributing to the overall headways when it matters most. Couple other small examples from that list I made:

-- Regional intercity lines and reverse commutes. The Fitchburg and Worcester upgrades have stimulating reverse-commutes to those cities as a major plank in their long-term growth. So say you start instituting Waltham/128 short-turns as a natural Indigo expansion. What does this do for the Brandeis students who live off-campus? What does this do for the Microsoft, Biogen, and Polaroid Complex mixed-use development employees who reverse-commute to that Kendal Green-replacement park-and-ride at Exit 26? Or all those frequent 128 office park shuttles that will inevitably crop up and take people from this Exit 26 stop or Anderson to the huge office buildings in Woburn or lining Middlesex Turnpike in Burlington?

-- What happens to the Worcester/Framingham locals that pick-and-choose their inside-128 stops? Newton Corner's bus connections are probably going to merit that as a stop on a few trains even if the other 3 Newton stops and New Balance get skipped. Jobs exist along the bus routes that converge there, and if the 71 gets bolstered with an extension from Corner from Watertown and sped up with some Key Bus Route initiative frills that may be a preferable transfer to Harvard for some.

-- What happens on Sox or Garden game nights when boardings are going to spike for EVERYONE?


Individual exceptions are not that hard to square. It's when they start piling up that the only viable solutions for squaring it all have to be systemic: redistributed Zones across the entire Indigo network and unskippable CR stops within the network, plus redistribution of the CR zones radiating outward.

In all likelihood though, you're right, and they'll need to adjust the zone fares down a bit. I just think that rather than jumping straight from $2 to $7.75 or whatever Beverly is now, they might want to gradually increment up to it.


Definitely. And there's nothing wrong with making the CR-only audience pay a premium and have their Zones escalate faster overall in price outside the Indigo service area. That is the fair thing to do. But the recalibration is still going to result in fare cuts in the places like Beverly (with its 1750 daily boardings that are growing), with the systemwide farebox recovery suffering. Because those first 'tweener stops in Zones 3 & 4 after the end of the Indigos that have to get equitably adjusted down carry disproportionate system ridership. Those Zones 5 or 6 approaching 495-land that will carry steeper rises in fares tend to be much smaller ridership and tend to hit the branchline schedules more than the big Beverlys of the world.

MassDOT's being a little naive not taking this into account. Now...some give-and-take on the fares can ABSOLUTELY be a winner if it grows the entire CR mode's (any vehicle) system ridership over the long haul. But it is a heavier load in operating cost on a mode with poorer farebox recovery than rapid transit or bus. So the agency NEEDS funding certainty and Legislative reform before they ever have a fighting chance of seeing this vision through. 1 year with a funding crisis and the same old rope-a-dope on 1:1 trades of fare increases, parking increases, and service cuts takes the legs out from the CR system growth plan. It already has with that mode's decline in ridership (see that whole thread for the fare/parking hike hypotheses as to why). When that plan is more like a 10-year plan that will operate at steep losses for the first 3-5 years while it route-primes all these corridors. You can't have the annual spring/summer rite where the GM has to take to the airwaves with another "we're trending $20M short of target this year...gotta belt-tighten FAST" and execute 10-year growth plans. It just doesn't work.

The Legislature HAS to get off its butt and reform the whole funding source. It can't be tap-danced around any longer. These vision statements like Gov. Patrick's a few months ago that's now falling well short of required funding because the House Speaker and Senate Prez. gutted the bill, or this one now that leaves those details unexplained don't work without it. And end up being little more than disingenuous puff pieces when we know these little does of shock therapy are going to continue unabated without total reform.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby deathtopumpkins » Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:10 pm

I agree with you 100%. I don't quite understand what MassDOT was thinking here, and frankly I don't think they understand it either.

We'll just have to wait and see what they end up doing with proposed fares.

They are holding public meetings though, so perhaps someone should attend one and ask? I would but it doesn't look like I could easily make the Boston or Lynn ones.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby Arlington » Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:05 pm

F-line to Dudley via Park wrote:
deathtopumpkins wrote:I thought it was implied that traditional CR trains will NOT be making Indigo stops? The map omits dots for them. So as I understand it, at least during peak times, the traditional trains will be running express past the Indigo stops.


That's exactly why it's not going to work. It prohibits most of the scenarios I outlined for these lines to evolve from ever happening. Eastern Route again being where the most failure points are. Salem is so ridership-oversaturated it can't be omitted by any trains whatsoever; that IS a station you build an express to while skipping others. So if the Indigos have to go out there because Lynn isn't nearly enough service for the North Shore or because this is the only way to plausibly turn a train, squaring Zone 3 has to be reckoned with. DMU's probably can't run on 20 min. frequencies at peakmost peak and have to throttle it down by 5-10 mins. when the Newburyport/Rockports (which keep growing) are gobbling their highest hourly % of slots at saturated track capacity, so someone holding an Indigo pass @ Indigo fare ends up seeing a frequency dip at the 8:00am, 5:00pm crunches where they need it most. And worse, if the CR fares to the same stops are more expensive the 9-5'ers will start passing up the push-pulls to overstuff the DMU's. Flipping the advantages of the vehicles on their heads. Those 6-car bi-level push-pulls have the seating capacity to swallow the peakiest of crushes but only do optimal farebox recovery at peak. DMU's can recover costs much better off-peak with their lower seating capacity but can't swallow the crowds. Those 2000+, 9-5'er dominated daily boarders at Salem being forced to pick either/or pricing end up overstuffing the DMU's and leaving lots of seats open on the push-pulls. The push-pulls bleed more money, people can't get seats at Lynn and Chelsea and pass up the DMU, or the T has to buy enough DMU's to run 4+-car sets at only a few hours of the day and confuse its vehicle strategy to the point where it takes heavier losses on all.


Can't the peak-hour DMUs be launched just 1 minute behind their expresses--essentially sharing the same schedule slot? (but not fouling the signals?) North Station is listed as "expanded" perhaps the Lynn-bound DMUs are being launched from Track "Zero" and by then we have a new drawspan and tracks on the Track 12+ side to launch the Lowell line DMUs on. And, one supposes, the "local" DMUs get turned and held at their "control points" (West Station, Anderson Woburn, and Lynn) and come "in" (in the AM peak), launched just 1 minute behind the express they "just met". If the local falls behind 1 or 2 minutes per stop (or two) it seems like there's plenty of time for them to make their local inbound run without the next inbound express chasing them down. Seems to me the DMUs would be strictly additive "infill"

Also note the new ferries to Lynn and Salem, perhaps draining off considerable loads at the peakiest peaks that you are worried about.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:27 pm

Arlington wrote:Can't the peak-hour DMUs be launched just 1 minute behind their expresses--essentially sharing the same schedule slot? (but not fouling the signals?) North Station is listed as "expanded" perhaps the Lynn-bound DMUs are being launched from Track "Zero" and by then we have a new drawspan and tracks on the Track 12+ side to launch the Lowell line DMUs on. And, one supposes, the "local" DMUs get turned and held at their "control points" (West Station, Anderson Woburn, and Lynn) and come "in" (in the AM peak), launched just 1 minute behind the express they "just met". If the local falls behind 1 or 2 minutes per stop (or two) it seems like there's plenty of time for them to make their local inbound run without the next inbound express chasing them down. Seems to me the DMUs would be strictly additive "infill"


It doesn't really matter. You can do kludges to solve any one problem easily enough. Every single one of them taken in isolation can have a straightforward solution like the one you outline here. But you can't manage the co-mingled commuter rail system on nothing but individual kludge fixes. Eventually as the Indigos scale to more service, more stations, more routes the whack-a-mole games multiplies too numerous to stamp out and fixes one place start conflicting with fixes another place. New inequities start to arise, and the entire means of fare collection gets so convoluted that it's no longer possible to memorize all the asterisks on the Indigo map or between DMU and push-pull schedules on any given route's station overlaps. Everything that's supposed to be clean and simple about this starts collapsing on itself in direct conflict with growth. Their solution to these problems has to be systemic and has to make the DMU's and push-pulls using these stations translate with each other, and has to make the escalation in Zone fares coherent across the system. There's no way to do that systemically without recalibrating the zones on both types of vehicles and forfeiting some revenue...at the heavy-use stops both vehicles use, and at the 'tweener stops like the Beverlys that are the next one out after the Indigos terminate.


Like I said, that CAN be a winning growth strategy at the decade-long level if it stimulates enough new boardings long-term to offset the poorer farebox recovery at some stops. But building that up requires committing to running a much steeper annual loss leader until the ridership slow-grows into peak form. That is not going to work in the age of annual funding crises and annual threats of fare hikes and service cuts. The scheme doesn't work without total Legislative reform of the T's funding and debt sources allowing a 10-year plan like this to see its way through with total certainty without getting disrupted by annual shocks. MassDOT is being extremely naive publishing this vision without taking that necessary need into account and punting entirely on the entire fare structure question.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby MBTA3247 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 3:52 pm

houseman86 wrote:I have read the entire plan one of things that sticks out to me other then indigo line is the new green line cars by 2021. I was wondering if there replacing the whole fleet or if they starting with the older ones because really dont need to be place that soon. i thought it would take until 2024 until they begin replacing the whole green fleet

The draft report explicitly states they plan to replace the entire Green Line fleet. This is in line with what was mentioned at a public Green Line meeting I went to last winter. Having a massive Type 9 order lets them get rid of the high-level Type 7s and the unreliable Type 8s and leaves them with only one type of car to maintain.

Of course, that assumes the Type 9s aren't a repeat of the Boeings and Type 8s. They really should try using something off-the-shelf this time and just modify the dimensions.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby Arlington » Sun Jan 12, 2014 4:23 pm

MBTA3247 wrote:
houseman86 wrote:I have read the entire plan one of things that sticks out to me other then indigo line is the new green line cars by 2021. I was wondering if there replacing the whole fleet or if they starting with the older ones because really dont need to be place that soon. i thought it would take until 2024 until they begin replacing the whole green fleet

The draft report explicitly states they plan to replace the entire Green Line fleet. This is in line with what was mentioned at a public Green Line meeting I went to last winter. Having a massive Type 9 order lets them get rid of the high-level Type 7s and the unreliable Type 8s and leaves them with only one type of car to maintain.

Of course, that assumes the Type 9s aren't a repeat of the Boeings and Type 8s. They really should try using something off-the-shelf this time and just modify the dimensions.


Given a complete re-fleeting, this is where I'd rather they be taking F-Line's plan to re-dimension the tunnels and then buy fully-standard trains: shave a few corners, undercut a few tunnels and buy a truly standard standard-dimension reality-tested car.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby octr202 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 5:17 pm

Regarding the Green Line cars, I'm sure that several of the European manufacturers would be willing to modify a tram/LRV design to accommodate Boston's loading gauge, track, etc. Of course that potentially runs afoul of A) total cost of what the Commonwealth is willing to pay, as bid by the prospective builders, and B) the likely requirement to manufacture them here in Massachusetts (as evidenced by the RFP for the Orange/Red car order).
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby octr202 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 5:38 pm

Regarding the DMUs, I sincerely hope that by the time any of this actually makes it to fruition that calmer heads understand that DMUs should be just part of the fleet that serves the commuter rail network, and not this special "Indigoization" of portions of the system. Look at the other northeastern carriers that operate MUs - they are part of the fleet just like the push pulls. Yes, DMUs would be best suited to certain services, push pulls to others, but in the long run I think a successful DMU design will end up relegating the push-pulls mainly to peak-hour service throughout the system. Get a well-designed DMU with reasonable seating, some amount of restrooms (always the tricky part, since you only need about 1 per 3-4 cars as long as they get allocated properly) and you have equipment that's well suited not only to short-turn services to Lynn or Readville, but could be used to increase the level of service on the whole system. How many places could be operated with shorter but much more frequent off-peak service versus the long-headway schedules we have now. There will be a need to rationalize the fare structure (although to an extent that could be done by just holding down the rate of increases on the CR side in coming years, since the CR fares are so far ahead of the transit side already). I can understand why the ideas are being advanced as these "Indigio Line" concepts, but hopefully in the end it's a more unified vision for what the CR system can be.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby Dick H » Sun Jan 12, 2014 5:49 pm

Looking at what appears to be a disaster with the construction
and quality control on the Rotems, lets hope the "equipment
acquisition" offices at the MBTA get a complete housecleaning
before any more orders for any equipment are approved. A
whole new team is sorely needed.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby Rockingham Racer » Sun Jan 12, 2014 7:52 pm

Dick H wrote:Looking at what appears to be a disaster with the construction
and quality control on the Rotems, lets hope the "equipment
acquisition" offices at the MBTA get a complete housecleaning
before any more orders for any equipment are approved. A
whole new team is sorely needed.


I would second that.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby NH2060 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:21 pm

A couple of points:

1) The map doesn't seem to indicate a direct Fairmount-BCEC (via Track 61) link. Wasn't direct access to the Convention Center from Dorchester, Readville, etc. part of the plan?

2) The Indigo extension to Lynn, from my point of view, seems like a less expensive alternative to a Blue Line extension. I do however wonder why there aren't any additional stations planned (i.e. Revere). The stretch between Chelsea and Lynn is very densely populated (save for the segment through the Rumney Marsh) and yet no station(s). They wouldn't even need a kiss and ride with given the types of neighborhoods the line cuts through, just a couple of platforms, a decent amount of bike racks, etc. and you're good to go. That is, I would think one would be in that case.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby millerm277 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:20 am

NH2060 wrote:2) The Indigo extension to Lynn, from my point of view, seems like a less expensive alternative to a Blue Line extension. I do however wonder why there aren't any additional stations planned (i.e. Revere). The stretch between Chelsea and Lynn is very densely populated (save for the segment through the Rumney Marsh) and yet no station(s). They wouldn't even need a kiss and ride with given the types of neighborhoods the line cuts through, just a couple of platforms, a decent amount of bike racks, etc. and you're good to go. That is, I would think one would be in that case.


2 - I think you're thinking that the Blue Line is further away. Take a look at the line on Google Maps. I think it's a rather weak case for a stop. Wonderland Station is 0.4mi from where Revere St crosses the tracks up North, the 1A/16/60 circle is 0.5mi from Revere Beach Station, and Winthrop Ave/16 is 0.8 mi from Beachmont Station. And nothing South of the Chelsea River in the area of the line is more than a mile from the Chelsea Station. The thinking on this project (and given that they're sharing lines with full CR) appears to be more CR type station spacing, not Green Line spacing.

To put it simply, I don't think that the pool of people who would ride thanks to a <1mi reduction in distance to a station is enough. Especially when you keep in mind that there are existing bus routes to the Blue Line stations and parking facilities, and that virtually everyone north of the river who is close to this line would continue to be cannibalized away by the Blue Line. I think most people who would ride transit in this area already ride the Blue Line.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby wicked » Mon Jan 13, 2014 5:07 am

The one place that would seem suitable for a stop on the Eastern is at the shopping center in Everett, but even that is relatively close to Wellington.
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Re: MassDOT Capital Plan & Vision for MBTA 2024

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:32 am

NH2060 wrote: The Indigo extension to Lynn, from my point of view, seems like a less expensive alternative to a Blue Line extension. I do however wonder why there aren't any additional stations planned (i.e. Revere). The stretch between Chelsea and Lynn is very densely populated (save for the segment through the Rumney Marsh) and yet no station(s). They wouldn't even need a kiss and ride with given the types of neighborhoods the line cuts through, just a couple of platforms, a decent amount of bike racks, etc. and you're good to go. That is, I would think one would be in that case.


The Revere station across from Wonderland was studied by Boston MPO and got a low rating. Ridership projections were anemic.

The problems are:
1) It's a 1250 ft. walk across that barren parking lot to reach Wonderland. Beyond unpleasant in winter when the wind is blasting off the water, so the only way to do the transfer is if they did some covered walkway the whole length sheltering from the weather. Only this walk is twice as long as the Wellington garage skywalk, so that's above most riders' tolerance for making an intra-station transfer.

2) Nearly every Lynn bus already loops at Wonderland. The ridership capture for commuter rail is too expensive even at Indigo pricing to match the bus. Chelsea routes originating from the west also disproportionately hit the Blue Line at Wonderland or Maverick, and Lynn is the originating terminal for all the North Shore buses. A DMU stop here serves no unique destinations, nor are Blue Liners likely to transfer here in more than trace numbers to get outbound.


The only thing that's going to dramatically change North Shore ridership patterns from that spot is a proper Blue extension to Lynn where the Lynn bus terminal can act like a real terminal, not have all its equipment siphoned inbound down Routes 1 and 1A on the expresses, and feed a LOT denser local route coverage being freed up from inbound duty. Blue-Lynn has almost as much to do with stratospherically enhancing the Yellow Line on the North Shore as it does native rapid transit ridership, so the DMU across from Wonderland is missing that one killer feature of remaking the terminal while having the most direct and cost-effective transfer for riders.

While it looks good on paper, it really is a solution in search of a problem and would be a total loser on ridership. I think there's higher potential at Riverworks/West Lynn for a proper stop if it anchored some major TOD redevelopment on the Lynnway with that barren parcel on the east side of the tracks from the GE plant getting some sort of compelling destination built on it. That site I could see working with the DMU if they've got developers in-tow.
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