Metro in the year 2020

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Metro in the year 2020

Postby Chris Brown » Sun Nov 27, 2016 12:29 pm

We can come back in three years to see if this is true, but I predict the year 2020 is when Metro will reclaim its "crown jewel" status and reach record levels of high ridership.

A lot of projects currently in the works will be completed by 2020:

    *Silver line extension to Dulles Airport
    *Potomac Yard Metro Station on Blue and Yellow line
    *Delivery of 100% of the 7K cars
    *Retirement of 100% of the 1K and 4K cars
    *SafeTrack rebuilding will be complete

On top of that.. the DC area will be more dense with new buildings and walkable neighborhoods along with a higher population. Here are some areas with big and small projects that will be completed by 2020:

    *The Wharf (huge project at the waterfront)
    *NoMa area development
    *Shaw and Georgia Avenue Development
    *Tyson's Corner area

Plus, most Metro stations in the area have new development either planned or under construction around them. A lot of these projects will be completed by 2020. The DC area already has some of the worst traffic in the country. With the increase in density and population this will only get worse. The horrible traffic will come at a time when Metro has fixed most of its problems and I think ridership will hit record highs that will continue to rise. This will probably lead to more funding and possibly more expansion plans for the core like a new Rosslyn tunnel and/or a separated Blue line.

What do you think?
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Re: Metro in the year 2020

Postby Sand Box John » Sun Nov 27, 2016 4:42 pm

"Chris Brown"[/b]We can come back in three years to see if this is true, but I predict the year 2020 is when Metro will reclaim its "crown jewel" status and reach record levels of high ridership.

A lot of projects currently in the works will be completed by 2020:

    *Silver line extension to Dulles Airport
    *Potomac Yard Metro Station on Blue and Yellow line
    *Delivery of 100% of the 7K cars
    *Retirement of 100% of the 1K and 4K cars
    *SafeTrack rebuilding will be complete

On top of that.. the DC area will be more dense with new buildings and walkable neighborhoods along with a higher population. Here are some areas with big and small projects that will be completed by 2020:

    *The Wharf (huge project at the waterfront)
    *NoMa area development
    *Shaw and Georgia Avenue Development
    *Tyson's Corner area

Plus, most Metro stations in the area have new development either planned or under construction around them. A lot of these projects will be completed by 2020. The DC area already has some of the worst traffic in the country. With the increase in density and population this will only get worse. The horrible traffic will come at a time when Metro has fixed most of its problems and I think ridership will hit record highs that will continue to rise. This will probably lead to more funding and possibly more expansion plans for the core like a new Rosslyn tunnel and/or a separated Blue line.

What do you think?


Not by a long shot.

The basic infrastructure the trains run on might be more reliable, but overcrowding will continue because all 8 car trains during peak will not happen anytime in the foreseeable future. After the retirement of the 1, 4 and 5k cars and the putting in service of the last 7k car, the net gain will be 28 cars, if you excluded the 164 car for the Silver line. There also is the issue with completing the upgrading of power distribution system.
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Re: Metro in the year 2020

Postby JDC » Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:17 pm

I'm thinking more like 2030 or so. I see at least another decade of significant work necessary to bring the system up to a SOGR AND for ridership to return. I also don't see a lot of that development making up for the large loss of riders from the burbs AND by competing services such as Lyft and Uber. Also, do not underestimate the constantly evolving nature of personal transportation and the coming (yes, I believe it) of self-driving cars and car-sharing.
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Re: Metro in the year 2020

Postby JackRussell » Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:10 pm

Sand Box John wrote:
Not by a long shot.


Unfortunately I have to agree.

To me the main problem is the current structure of the Metro board and the WMATA compact. We have board members who in general do not know much about transit, and care more about their own corner of the area, and Metro has no dedicated source of funding. We have localities that are reluctant to give more money to Metro because they are concerned that it will not be spent well.

Until that is fixed, the system is going to continue to hobble along.
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Re: Metro in the year 2020

Postby Sand Box John » Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:39 pm

"JackRussell"

To me the main problem is the current structure of the Metro board and the WMATA compact. We have board members who in general do not know much about transit, and care more about their own corner of the area, and Metro has no dedicated source of funding. We have localities that are reluctant to give more money to Metro because they are concerned that it will not be spent well.

Until that is fixed, the system is going to continue to hobble along.


I don't quit see it that way. WMATA's staff does a great deal work preparing documentation for Board Member to make educated decision on various matters. The folks elsewhere in the state food chain is where the problems are.
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Re: Metro in the year 2020

Postby Chris Brown » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:24 pm

JDC wrote:I'm thinking more like 2030 or so. I see at least another decade of significant work necessary to bring the system up to a SOGR AND for ridership to return. I also don't see a lot of that development making up for the large loss of riders from the burbs AND by competing services such as Lyft and Uber. Also, do not underestimate the constantly evolving nature of personal transportation and the coming (yes, I believe it) of self-driving cars and car-sharing.


These are good points, but self-driving cars are decades away from being the norm on roads for many reasons. Outside of legal issues technology failures will create.. it will likely be something mostly for rich people for a very long time. We have to remember that most people don't own new cars and it will be decades before all cars are self-driving. A lot of poor people and people in cities don't own cars at all.

Regarding Uber and Lyft, they are more expensive than Metro so it is not a good day-to-day way to get around unless you have money to burn or all your trips are very short. People are talking about self driving cars like they will be the norm in a few years. That's very unlikely.

I think the ridership will return around 2020 because of the population boom and the horrible traffic that comes with it. These two issues will occur long before self-driving cars are normal and affordable for everyone (if that even happens).
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