New York State Expansion Thoughts

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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby bdawe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:21 pm

VIA the "Streamliner Schedules" Archive:

The 1951 Erie Limited left Jersey City at 9:30 AM and arrived at Binghamton at 2:45 PM, 215.1 miles up the track, making 5:15 and averaging 40 mph

The 1954 Pheobe Snow left Hoboken at 9:35 AM and arrived at Binghamton at 2:02 PM, 191.7 miles up the track, making 4:27 and averaging 43 mph.

The Pheobe Snow is listed as offering connecting service to Syracuse (Train 1903) departing Binghamton at 2:05 PM and arriving in Syracuse at 4:08 PM, 79.4 miles up the track from Binghamton and 271.1 miles from Hoboken, making 2:03 from Binghamton and 6:33 from Hoboken, averaging 38 mph and 41 mph respectively

A Google maps search for departing Hoboken for Binghamton at 9:30 AM tomorrow estimates a 2:50-3:40 drive, and 3:40-4:50 to Syracuse by way of Interstates 80 & 81
B. Dawe's map of routes and urban populations https://brendandawe.carto.com/viz/80b9d ... /embed_map NOW updated with 2016 Canadian Populations
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby gokeefe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:24 pm

Who would the host railroad be between NYP and Binghamton via Scranton?
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby bdawe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:31 pm

Looking at the urban areas map, such a route would link together:

* Syracuse (412k)
* Cortland (27k)
* Binghamton (158k)
* Scranton (382k)
* Mount Pocono (24k)
* Stroudsburg (54k)
* New York (18,351K)
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby Gilbert B Norman » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:42 pm

As Mr. Ridgefield notes on the preceeding page, the MSA including Binghamton is 251K. Largely not included are the 17,000 students at SUNY-Binghamton.

Of interest some 60 miles "up the D&H" is Oneonta - the cradle of organized railroad labor - and 3700 more students at SUNY-Oneonta.

But as noted by Mr. Nasadowski, there is no reasonable and practical route to the NY area. The "weary Erie" was not known as that for nothing. Running over the D&H, or otherwise the V-II delivery route, to Albany is simply not reasonable.

Finally to Mr. Dawe, aren't we assuming "a bit much" that the D,L,&W will be fully restored for passenger service?
Last edited by Gilbert B Norman on Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby gokeefe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:44 pm

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Finally to Mr. Dawe, aren't we assuming "a bit much" that the D,L,&W will be fully restored for passenger service.


I think given the current context of investment throughout the Northeast in regional extensions that this is a reasonable discussion.

Who would have ever predicted a service restoration to Roanoke?
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby bdawe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:54 pm

I don't think I am assuming too much. I assume that, were there to be passenger service through the region that it would be along the shorter, straighter ex-Lackawanna that would need some reconstruction (near as I can tell, the route to Syracuse is still intact save for the publicly-owned Cutoff), rather than by way of more curvaceous and less intact and less direct routes or some sort of greenfield line. I am not assuming that this will actually be done.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby Gilbert B Norman » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:07 pm

Messrs. Dawe and O'Keefe, beyond these seven counties, namely Westchester, Bronx, Queens, New York, Dutchess, Columbia, and Rensselaer, how much support has the State of New York shown for any expansion of intercity service? If Yäger single tracks the NYC upstate, there goes any thought of further, if even the existing, intercity service.

They are hardly Virginia or Maine.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby scottychaos » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:12 pm

BandA wrote:You want to build passenger lines as relievers for overcrowded interstates primarily.


Key word there = "overcrowded"
I have been regularily driving:

Binghamton - Albany on I88.
Binghamton -Syracuse on I81.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Rochester on 17/I86 and I390.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Hornell-Olean-Jamestown on 17/I86

for 30 years..there is no overcrowding, at all, on any of those routes.
IMO, passenger rail will never return to the Southern Tier, because no one needs it, the demand just isnt there.

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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby gokeefe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:24 pm

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Messrs. Dawe and O'Keefe, beyond these seven counties, namely Westchester, Bronx, Queens, New York, Dutchess, Columbia, and Rensselaer, how much support has the State of New York shown for any expansion of intercity service? If Yäger single tracks the NYC upstate, there goes any thought of further, if even the existing, intercity service.

They are hardly Virginia or Maine.


Well I completely agree. But then again, "once upon a time" no one would have ever thought that "Virginia or Maine" would one day be considered leaders in Eastern state supported passenger rail service. In regards to CSX I think that "time will tell". I am not convinced that such a proposal is going to go much further at this point especially given how much attention is coming from the regulator.

My take on the situation with New York State generally is that I think that if there's going to be a policy shift that it would probably occur under the current Cuomo administration that tends to think big and also "outside the box". That is not to say that they are going to fund rail passenger service to the farm country but rather that I think there is a serious chance that they will consider service on new routes or at least new mileage. They have already done so in small part with consideration of changes to the Ethan Allen Express but beyond that, "nothing yet".
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby east point » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:38 pm

The examples of VA and ME are different than NY state. Traffic on the two previous states was very restricted US 29 in Virginia and the traffic north out of BON can be bad as well. As others have posted the NY traffic is not congested yet ?
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby gokeefe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:40 pm

east point wrote:As others have posted the NY traffic is not congested yet ?


Virginia, Maine and New York are all similar analogues in this respect. The traffic problem isn't necessarily at the station of origin its as you get closer to an urban terminal. In Virginia this is Washington, DC, in Maine it is Boston and in New York its the entire NYC Metro area.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby F-line to Dudley via Park » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:30 pm

Let's also consider this:

"Our Bold New PRIAA Era" for equipment procurements is coming to the East Coast soon, too. So NYSDOT has some huge decisions to make on quantities of coaches and locos to buy. They are required by the new law to order a fleet commensurate with all service increases that are on a funding track, so there will be an increase of equipment over today and no shorting of fleets over the near-term. But if you really want to talk substantial Empire service increases on the NYP-ALB-BUF trunk and new forks out of ALB (nevermind drilling down to BUF-hub considerations), Step 1 before even looking at the canvas is determining how much extra they want to pile on in this mass procurement. The NYSHSR studies for stepped-up service increases on the Empire are depressingly modest, even for the nearer-term increases that aren't predicated on spending $B's to upgrade the Water Level Route. Albany isn't being nearly as aggressive as they could be on strengthening frequencies on the trunk.

These attitudes matter when you have a once-in-a-lifetime decision to order when the unit scale is at its most advantageous: a coach order that'll be pumping out 600+ Amfleet replacements, and a three-agency (MNRR + LIRR + AMTK/NYSDOT) dual-mode locomotive procurement that'll be pumping out about a minimum of 75 fleet-replacement units + additional units for the PRIAA service-level adjustments and additional MNRR/LIRR fleet padding that could surge it north of 90 or 100 depending on how TBD fleet plans get finalized on the option end of the RFP.


What are the considerations for. . .

-- Size of the trailer order, and ratios of the default factory configurations: coaches, cafe/lounge, biz class. I have no idea what the Empire's share of the whole 600-car Brightline-or-whatever Amfleet replacement enchilada is, but it's a lot of cars. Ratios of the latter two factory configs matter for the pan-Empire "vision thing" of who their audience is today and where future service increases will drive revenue.

-- Ratios for the modular livery...a brand new ordering decision. Each car has X many snap-in sections, with the vanilla specialty configs being "weightable" towards or away from a certain function by changing the ratio of mixed snap-in types. For example, there's no separate dinette and club-dinette livery designations like the Amfleet I's because now you can swap a club or seating section out of the default cafe/lounge config to add +1 more sections of tables, or subtract a section of tables or coach seating and +1 more club/parlour seating. And change those sections out with minimal downtime if ALB shops wants to try a different ratio.

-- Baggage service: cab-coach-bag cars or coach-bag cars? The Metroliner replacements are a brand new config with a half- coach seating, half- baggage room default (because every incumbent state running push-pull routes wanted to offer bag service). Same as how the Midwest bi-levels attempted to template the Cali Car/Surfliner half-and-half configuration, so baggage handling is now the de facto standard for all push-pull consists going forward. For non-PP routes, the new orders allow for a regular coach trailer to have (on the bi's) either a lower-level bag room or (on the flats) a changeout of seating snap-ins to add bag room snap-ins. Both the cab coach-bag and trailer coach-bag configs also allow for customizations that increase the size of the bag room by deleting a seating snap-in to +1 a baggage snap-in. NYSDOT now has to mull how it wants to slice/dice this. VTrans is already getting their EAE cab-bag-coaches. Do they want to convert every Empire train to push-pull because they see some operational flexibility at Penn? Decide now on that sweeping change...because cabs will never be as cheap or plentiful as this order. And if the non-EAE schedules remain pull-only, what's their baggage strategy? We can assume since the rest of the states are going along with that as a de facto standard that they'll follow suit (certainly the Empire has a crapton of hiking/biking destinations to make good use of the space!). But how many coach-bag trailers do they order? Equip every existing train, or just everything that isn't short-turning @ ALB right back to NYP? Pad the fleet for expansion or running seasonal bike/ski specials with more than 1 bag car? Order any in the custom config with extra-large bag rooms...and if so, how large and how many?


They don't just need to be forward-thinking about car quantities, but they need to know their demographics like never before! The states have never before had to be this precise about getting their car config numbers straight. Some of these quantities & ratios are tough decisions that could go any which way depending on what growth considerations you weight the heaviest. But it is absolutely a prerequisite to service expansion to get the balance right on this yuuuuuuuge order.



Now how about those locos?. . .

-- Approx. 75 dual mode-for-dual mode replacements + fleet-attrition padding in a 3-agency combo base order: AMTK/NYSDOT (18 current P32AC-DM's), MNRR (31 current P32AC-DM's), LIRR (23 current DM30AC's).

-- TBD fleet padding for the MTA roads per their fleet/service plans, plus PRIAA-mandated adjustments to current/imminent Empire service levels. No RFP yet so we don't know how many this will be for each road, but conservative guess is another 10-15 cumulative so bet on it swelling to 85-90 on the base or first-wave/gimme options.

-- Major decision to make re: ALB engine swaps. PRIAA now makes it so most states have to run what they paid for on state-sponsored routes, so Albany won't be able to borrow liberally from the national diesel pool for engine swaps anymore. Only the LD Lake Shore Ltd. is going to get a mothership-supplied Charger/etc. for its trip past Albany. So NYSDOT better buy enough dual-modes to run every Empire schedule end-to-end on the same engine, abolishing all non- LSL engine swaps in regular practice (excepting exigent circumstances where protect diesels are kept on swap reserve). OR...decide that most/all Empire trains will always engine-swap @ ALB, not order as many above-and-beyond duals, and bring a straight-diesel fleet in-house (P42 fire sale???).

-- Major decision to make on LIRR's straight-diesel fleet. Do a separate order for off-shelf diesels to replace the 23 DE30AC's, or use the unit scale of the tri-agency duals order to replace everything with one DM make for fleet unification's sake? Including if it's just ordering "Sprint-Chargers" or whatever with the E-mode compartment empty to save some $$$...but allow that feature to be added on later if needs change. Do this and the rear options might push the total order size to well >100 units. How's that substantial change in unit scale affect how many NYSDOT orders for Empire padding?



Decisions, decisions. So many decisions, so little bandwidth to ponder Southern Tier future considerations until you've made those fleet decisions.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby Backshophoss » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:00 pm

Figure on ConnDOT wanting in on the Dual-Mode order as well,their P32's will need replacing to work into GCT,and maybe NYP as well.
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby johnpbarlow » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:16 am

scottychaos wrote:
BandA wrote:You want to build passenger lines as relievers for overcrowded interstates primarily.


Key word there = "overcrowded"
I have been regularily driving:

Binghamton - Albany on I88.
Binghamton -Syracuse on I81.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Rochester on 17/I86 and I390.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Hornell-Olean-Jamestown on 17/I86

for 30 years..there is no overcrowding, at all, on any of those routes.
IMO, passenger rail will never return to the Southern Tier, because no one needs it, the demand just isnt there.

Scot


Completely agree. Plus population trend in upstate NY has been negative for the past few years, perhaps reflecting the decline in employment in the region being discussed. See the map at the attached URL. Only Tompkins County (ie, Ithaca) has seen a growth in population so maybe we should discussing rebuilding LV's Ithaca Branch! :wink:
https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/upstate-population-drop-continues-46-of-62-ny-counties-down-since-2010/
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Re: New York State Expansion Thoughts

Postby Ridgefielder » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:55 am

F-line to Dudley via Park wrote:Decisions, decisions. So many decisions, so little bandwidth to ponder Southern Tier future considerations until you've made those fleet decisions.

One reason the Tier might go up the priority list on those decisions. Politics.

The Southern Tier has gotten the back of the hand from Albany for years. A resuscitated Phoebe Snow might be the price extracted for Tier legislative support of big equipment purchases.

scottychaos wrote:Key word there = "overcrowded"
I have been regularily driving:

Binghamton - Albany on I88.
Binghamton -Syracuse on I81.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Rochester on 17/I86 and I390.
Binghamton-Elmira-Corning-Hornell-Olean-Jamestown on 17/I86

for 30 years..there is no overcrowding, at all, on any of those routes.

No argument with you there. But what about:

Binghamton - NYC via I81/380/80 or
Binghamton - NYC via NY17?

That's where you're talking major congestion as you get closer to NY. Not to mention heavy truck traffic on I-80 or the corkscrewing rollercoaster that is NY17/I86 over the Catskills between Liberty and Deposit.

I don't think there's a ton of incremental ridership to be picked up between Binghamton and Syracuse. However, that would put equipment in position to cycle back as an extra SYR-ALB-NYP frequency.
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